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AFL fantasy competitions => General Supercoach => SC Strategy => Topic started by: j959 on August 30, 2016, 10:45:39 AM

Title: End of season review - 2016 MORPHING into strategy 2017 discussion
Post by: j959 on August 30, 2016, 10:45:39 AM
Disappointing year in SC for me personally ... so need to get the 'lessons learned' sorted out ...

Does anyone know if there's a function on the site (before it gets 'shut down') to bring your team back to the start of a particular round??
Title: Re: End of season review - 2016
Post by: Gigantor on August 30, 2016, 10:52:35 AM
On the right under "My Team Tools" scroll across until you get to "My Scores"
You can then select any round, it shows what every player scored including bench and even highlights C's and VC's

Just had a look at my RD1, Lonergan got 96! What a flowering tease haha and Bennedy's 115 on the bench isn't pretty  :P
Title: Re: End of season review - 2016
Post by: j959 on August 30, 2016, 11:19:01 AM
On the right under "My Team Tools" scroll across until you get to "My Scores"
You can then select any round, it shows what every player scored including bench and even highlights C's and VC's

Just had a look at my RD1, Lonergan got 96! What a flowering tease haha and Bennedy's 115 on the bench isn't pretty  :P
Thanks Gig, but I was more looking for an option where it could do the 'field' layout of the team to compare my starting team prior to rd1 kick-off to my team of average at the death (rd23) - i'm a visual person in that I don't have much imagination, so the round score function isn't as pretty!   ;)
Title: Re: End of season review - 2016
Post by: Gigantor on August 30, 2016, 11:30:13 AM
On the right under "My Team Tools" scroll across until you get to "My Scores"
You can then select any round, it shows what every player scored including bench and even highlights C's and VC's

Just had a look at my RD1, Lonergan got 96! What a flowering tease haha and Bennedy's 115 on the bench isn't pretty  :P
Thanks Gig, but I was more looking for an option where it could do the 'field' layout of the team to compare my starting team prior to rd1 kick-off to my team of average at the death (rd23) - i'm a visual person in that I don't have much imagination, so the round score function isn't as pretty!   ;)

I don't think what you are asking for exists, you would have to manually take a screen shot each week to have access to that kind of info which, of course, doesn't help you at all  :P
Title: Re: End of season review - 2016
Post by: _wato on August 30, 2016, 12:01:27 PM
No more DT friendly players (so silly of me) and too many questionable picks to start the year. Stef, Shiel, Rich in my case. 

Just gotta stick with the absolute premos and only blokes who have good roles in their respective sides, not blokes who have role changes every week (Titch)

Gonna try and go after consistent blokes (Hanners, Neale, Pendles for example) rather than a 140 and then a 75 the week after (Ward), however Sloane who has a reasonably high floor would be a guy id go after because he doesn't have many lower games under 90-95

Gonna keep up my method of trading out rooks early to beat the pack (Bennedy, Tippa, Weits this year) which gave me a leg up this year once again. R/F Ruck and no floating donuts to start the year!!!! Never again 

Will only go an expensive rookie (Mills/Parish from this year) if they have really good scoring and there's nothing else. Limit the amount of $200-$450k players I pick coming off injury, because that can kill a team.

And make Danger VC/C every game from now on. Perma captain.

Can't be angry with a final rank of 336 which makes 4 years inside 646 rankings but it leaves a lot to desire knowing how much better I could've gone this year.
Title: Re: End of season review - 2016
Post by: Gigantor on August 30, 2016, 12:13:33 PM
And because this thread is titled End of season review I'll give a quick run down of my season

Rank 1098

Positives:

Captains
Really nailed it this year, average C score of 136, only 6 below 120, Goldy's 96 in rd 2 only sub 100 score also had 6 150+ scores :) 203 by Shaw in rd 9 the highlight!

Rookies:
Got the starting rookies right, only missed Papley, but that was corrected rd3
Didn't have DBJ which is the only rookie I missed during the year that hurt a bit

Negatives:


Mid Pricers
flowering B.Crouch and Lonergan! Not only did I stuff up by starting them, I also held them for way too long which killed my start to the year

Not having Zorko and Docherty
Picked Rance over Docherty as my first defense upgrade which really hurt and then he was too expensive to get after that,
Not having Zorko just killed me all year haha

Trading in Lycett to cover Goldstein
Averaged 73.5 after I traded him in, was averaging 95 before that lol

Summary
A bit disappointed I slipped out of the top 1000 in the last round but still a good year. I had trades in hand and the end but they didn't really help as there wasn't really any late season carnage.
Next year, no mid pricers and I won't be holding trades if there is another pre-finals bye :)

tl:dr
Captains and Rookies good, Mid pricers, Lycett and not having Zorko/Docherty bad  ;D

Title: Re: End of season review - 2016
Post by: fanTCfool on August 30, 2016, 04:05:24 PM
I encourage everyone to fill out a template like this

Final Rank:
Final Rank last Year:
Best Weekly Score (Round):
League Placings:
Best Starting Pick(s):
Worst Starting Pick(s):
2016 Flop You Considered, but Avoided:
2016 Gun You Considered, but Overlooked:
Best Trade(s) (Player, Round):
Worst Trade(s) (Player, Round):
Best Lesson for Next Year:
Title: Re: End of season review - 2016
Post by: j959 on August 31, 2016, 12:38:57 PM
And because this thread is titled End of season review I'll give a quick run down of my season
yes, yes of course Gig - this was the main purpose of me starting up the thread.
my query/plea for help was just an additional 'bonus' question ...  ;)

I encourage everyone to fill out a template like this

Final Rank:
Final Rank last Year:
Best Weekly Score (Round):
League Placings:
Best Starting Pick(s):
Worst Starting Pick(s):
2016 Flop You Considered, but Avoided:
2016 Gun You Considered, but Overlooked:
Best Trade(s) (Player, Round):
Worst Trade(s) (Player, Round):
Best Lesson for Next Year:
very good suggestion fanTC, but also wouldn't mind more in-depth discussion/analysis/dissection also ...   ;D
Title: Re: End of season review - 2016
Post by: j959 on November 14, 2016, 06:42:50 PM
Ok, I did my loose end of season review - wasn't anything too in-depth (don't have that much time on my hands) ...

Very similar to Wato I think this year confirmed for me that I need to go more with the 'absolute premos'.

Like Gigantor I had trouble with B.Crouch and Lonergan but even moreso - I had way too many mid-pricers and I reckon that this has had an impact on my disappointing end of season overall ranking (see to the right).

I had 8 mid-pricers in my starting team and 5 of them were FAILs, so that to me confirms the difficulty in picking the 'right' ones ... this is not to say that you do not pick mid-pricers at all in my opinion, but that having too many is likely to increase your chances of picking up the 'duds' ...  :P   ;)

Where i'm goin to deviate a little from Wato is that I don't think I was patient enough with the rookies and off-loaded most of them a tad too early, but also I do accept that there is merit in trading some a bit early to get ahead of the pack as Wato writes above - I think the lesson to take away is to work out which way best you can work out the optimal time to cull your rooks according to your own team strategy.

Other than that, what really killed my ranking imo was 3 critical 'wasted' trades that are hard to devise a solid 'rule' for because they were speculative picks that you sometimes have to make to get ahead/cut your losses ...

Somewhere in the mid-point of the season I sideways traded Wines --> Gray and this didn't really get me anywhere and instead I had the 'opportunity cost' of not having the trade for a later period, reducing flexibility and options (when you probably really need them!).  :P   ;)

Then at the start of SC finals (Qual/Elim finals stage) I did the following 'FAIL army' moves, that I thought were 'genius' at the time ...

J Trengove --> Ebert
Ruggles --> Motlop (fwd - via DPP B/F switch)

Both of those were really wasted and I didn't get much from Motlop (prob should've gone more premo) and went backwards with the Ebert traded - so double whammy of wasted and going backwards a bit ...

Finally, I had a very 'rookie mistake' towards the end of the season ... I had meant to trade an injured Delids out of my team but with the rolling lock-out I wanted to wait and ensure that my trade-in target was all good to go (Bont trade-in 2015 anyone??) but I forgot that the Tigers had a Fri night game that week and when I went to do the trade ... big FAIL - Delids is locked for trading obviously!   :-X   :-[   :P   ::)    ;)

So, my 'rulz' for 2017:

1) Absolute premos (as far as possible)
2) Patience with rooks - but balanced against ...
3) Aggressive trading to get ahead of the pack early
4) Attention to detail with trading to avoid FAILs
(I had an error free 2015 after a bad finals 'choke' in 2013 or 2014 - I'm getting old, i can't remember properly  :P   ;))

What has everyone else got??   ;D
Title: SC strategy 2017 discussion
Post by: j959 on November 16, 2016, 03:00:19 PM
Ok, also morphing/moving the discussion into thoughts/discussion for 2017 ...

I've heard people bandying about a mid-structure referred to as "5-O'Meara-5" ... I'm not sure but I'm wondering if this would chew too much of my budget if I have 5 super-premos there ...

Perhaps they are just saying 5 premiums with a mix of premo/super-premo in that 5??
Title: Re: SC strategy 2017 discussion
Post by: quinny88 on November 17, 2016, 05:38:47 PM
Ok, also morphing/moving the discussion into thoughts/discussion for 2017 ...

I've heard people bandying about a mid-structure referred to as "5-O'Meara-5" ... I'm not sure but I'm wondering if this would chew too much of my budget if I have 5 super-premos there ...

Perhaps they are just saying 5 premiums with a mix of premo/super-premo in that 5??

I'm not gonna bother worrying about it until I know who can be picked in what positions.
At this stage you could save a lot of money in the fwd line with guys like Bennell, Roughy and Elliot and load up in the midfield, but who knows what players will be shifted around into different positions. Hopefully should know early next month
Title: Re: End of season review - 2016 MORPHING into strategy 2017 discussion
Post by: _wato on November 17, 2016, 05:53:20 PM
Well if you think about it your 5 'premos' are most likely going to include an underpriced Fyfe and Beams so you save a lot of money there

Potentially 2 120+ avg mids for under a mill makes it easy to go 3 other super prems and not break the bank

For me, hoping I can go those two and Danger, Hanners, Rocky/Sloane

Also agree with Quinny though, just gotta wait and see honestly
Title: Re: Strategy 2017 discussion
Post by: j959 on November 22, 2016, 04:11:21 PM
Well if you think about it your 5 'premos' are most likely going to include an underpriced Fyfe and Beams so you save a lot of money there

Potentially 2 120+ avg mids for under a mill makes it easy to go 3 other super prems and not break the bank

For me, hoping I can go those two and Danger, Hanners, Rocky/Sloane

Also agree with Quinny though, just gotta wait and see honestly
I get that and I agree with you two that the positions and prices will most likely shape peoples' structure in any event, but I still like to mull things over in my head before as it keeps me 'in-tune' with the news so I don't have to rush around last minute trying to work out my teams just prior to lock-out!  :o   :P

I do know it's ages away though but i'm a 'tortoise' kinda person ...  ;)
Title: Fanplanner 2017 OPEN!
Post by: j959 on November 24, 2016, 12:56:52 PM
I know it's early so m0nty will be giving his best guess re pricing but ...

Did you know that ...

FANPLANNER IS OPEN!!!  8)
Title: Re: Fanplanner 2017 OPEN!
Post by: Gigantor on November 24, 2016, 01:49:09 PM
I know it's early so m0nty will be giving his best guess re pricing but ...

Did you know that ...

FANPLANNER IS OPEN!!!  8)

Just had a look, some of the games and averages are wrong.

Gawn is showing as 21@121.2 but when you look at his FF profile he played 22@118.1 but then his stats on the actual SC site are 22@118.6...

Anyway its only early days, m0nty is probably just getting it warmed up for after the draft!
Title: Re: End of season review - 2016 MORPHING into strategy 2017 discussion
Post by: Ringo on November 24, 2016, 01:50:49 PM
Will see how close he is with Beams at 300k and Fyfe at $455k. Locks if they are both in that vicinity when prices come out,
Title: Re: End of season review - 2016 MORPHING into strategy 2017 discussion
Post by: Gigantor on November 24, 2016, 01:58:37 PM
Will see how close he is with Beams at 300k and Fyfe at $455k. Locks if they are both in that vicinity when prices come out,

I would be surprised if they are priced that low, they changed the rules for Ablett this year so he wasn't too cheap.

Its the returning suspended players that have my interest, if they are discounted too much everyone will pick them but if they don't get a discount no one will. My guess is 10%, possibly 20%, m0nty has them at 30% which i think is too high
Title: Re: End of season review - 2016 MORPHING into strategy 2017 discussion
Post by: crowls on December 01, 2016, 02:40:51 PM
Final Rank: 1464
Final Rank last Year: 564
Best Weekly Score (Round): R12  2667
Best Starting Pick(s): Gawn,
2016 Flop You Considered, but Avoided: Lonergan,
2016 Gun You Considered, but Overlooked: Goldstein,  went for S Martin and held him all year.

Captain Picks and missed Loopholes -   
Rd 1 Fyfe for 61 points. GAJ VC 130 but no loophole
Rd 5 Fyfe for 53 points.  Danger scored 137, Gawn 160.
Rd 6 Gawn for 96,    Selwood 138 VC no loophole
Rd 8 Gawn for 49,  Selwood VC 69  Danger scored 132

overall 11 picks over 130, 5 picks between 100-130 and 7 picks under 100 including 3 under 60.     Poor scores dragged me down overall especially early in the season.

Some bad decisions hung around like Rich.    Just could not find the right time to upgrade him and he lasted until Rd15.
Rockcliff to S Mitchell was a bad trade lost 140k on Mitchell over next 10 weeks.    Trading out Barlow was also a bad decision however I did bring in Zerrett so was an upgrade just could have done Rockliff to Zerrett and saved a trade.

This year again reinforced the Guns and Rookies approach is the right path.    Injured mid pricers bring their own risks.  Pick potential break outs is like picking a Melbourne Cup winner.  More losers than winners.   Better off waiting until they have form and pay for them through good rookie upgrades.

I have a pricing strategy/objective for each line that guides my overall selection and trade approach.   This helps keep me focussed on the EOS structure that is required.   The earlier I can reach the structure the further up the ladder I will finish.
Next year top 100 is my goal.     Get to my design team structure by Rd 11/12       Requires Prems not injured and selecting correct rookies followed by trading to next batch of rooks at right time.

Title: Re: End of season review - 2016 MORPHING into strategy 2017 discussion
Post by: j959 on December 02, 2016, 01:52:10 PM
Final Rank: 1464
Final Rank last Year: 564
Best Weekly Score (Round): R12  2667
Best Starting Pick(s): Gawn,
2016 Flop You Considered, but Avoided: Lonergan,
2016 Gun You Considered, but Overlooked: Goldstein,  went for S Martin and held him all year.

Captain Picks and missed Loopholes -   
Rd 1 Fyfe for 61 points. GAJ VC 130 but no loophole
Rd 5 Fyfe for 53 points.  Danger scored 137, Gawn 160.
Rd 6 Gawn for 96,    Selwood 138 VC no loophole
Rd 8 Gawn for 49,  Selwood VC 69  Danger scored 132

overall 11 picks over 130, 5 picks between 100-130 and 7 picks under 100 including 3 under 60.     Poor scores dragged me down overall especially early in the season.

Some bad decisions hung around like Rich.    Just could not find the right time to upgrade him and he lasted until Rd15.
Rockcliff to S Mitchell was a bad trade lost 140k on Mitchell over next 10 weeks.    Trading out Barlow was also a bad decision however I did bring in Zerrett so was an upgrade just could have done Rockliff to Zerrett and saved a trade.

This year again reinforced the Guns and Rookies approach is the right path.    Injured mid pricers bring their own risks.  Pick potential break outs is like picking a Melbourne Cup winner.  More losers than winners.   Better off waiting until they have form and pay for them through good rookie upgrades.

I have a pricing strategy/objective for each line that guides my overall selection and trade approach.   This helps keep me focussed on the EOS structure that is required.   The earlier I can reach the structure the further up the ladder I will finish.
Next year top 100 is my goal.     Get to my design team structure by Rd 11/12       Requires Prems not injured and selecting correct rookies followed by trading to next batch of rooks at right time.
Yep, pretty sure 'midpricer madness' is what killed my SC rank this year - pretty much confirmed for SC that 'guns'n'rookies' is the dominant strategy and that makes sense I suppose.

heh, heh - Rich is on the 'never again' list, though in saying that I went with Heater this year after having him on never again and then Shaun Higgins the year before again on a 'never again' list ...  :P   ;)

I like your line price structure/strategy - when I read that I think that would sum up my last couple of years and that my 'finalisation of team' strategy was BAD in that I didn't really have one ...  :-X   ;)

Good stuff mate - thanks for contributing to the discussion.  ;D
Title: Re: End of season review - 2016 MORPHING into strategy 2017 discussion
Post by: Holz on December 08, 2016, 03:55:59 PM
at the moment i have 7 premo mid including beams at m7.

1 premo up front.
Title: Re: End of season review - 2016 MORPHING into strategy 2017 discussion
Post by: The_Captain on December 08, 2016, 04:56:41 PM
Beams at m6 for me. Swallow m7. 2 Prems up forward. 3 prems down back and 2 prems in ruck.
Title: Re: End of season review - 2016 MORPHING into strategy 2017 discussion
Post by: djbics on December 29, 2016, 01:11:35 PM
Final Rank: 5407
Final Rank last Year: 10331
Best Weekly Score (Round): 2669 (11)
League Placings: Finals5/6, one Premiership
Best Starting Pick(s): Would probably be Daniel Wells for over-all value
Worst Starting Pick(s): Sheridan/Lonergan/B.Crouch/S.Jacobs
2016 Flop You Considered, but Avoided: Kade Kolo
2016 Gun You Considered, but Overlooked: Dangerfield  :o
Best Trade(s) (Player, Round): Corey Enright Rd 9 460k Ave 106 rest of season
Worst Trade(s) (Player, Round): Chad Wingard Rd 10
Best Lesson for Next Year: No break-out mid pricers

Two very ordinary years following from being consistently top1K hurts..... I've been too keen to chase value rather than the tried and true and have been really up and down....when it comes off it really stands out (finishing 2nd for the round in round 11 was the main highlight)..... but not having Dangerfield and Gawn all season killed me on a regular basis. 

I stuffed my starting rucks (Mumford was ok, but Jacobs had a shocker), and I panicked the first selection night as was relying on Hartley to be playing (ended up sacrificing a premium and Hartley for Lonergan and Sheridan).  I was too rigid with holding onto Sauce thinking he would turn it around, and should have cut my losses early.  Bringing Wingard in was a risk and didn't really pay off (though his 110 in RD 11 was invaluable.

So what will change in 2017? Apart from the afore-mentioned no mid-price breakouts, I think my main difference will be picking my team around my Rd 1 rookies.  Sure, I will play around with different structures prior to then, and have a decent idea on who I like, but come that first selection night I will be clearing my team and starting with the rooks first.

Still unsure if I'll start Danger (should learn from last year!), however Dangers actual direct comparison start of last season was  Nat Fyfe (most expensive player, coming off a brownlow, massive previous season, though he did come in with an injury cloud which Danger shouldn't).  And those who did have Fyfe were able to trade him when he did get injured to most other players, so negligible loss incurred.  It's just a lot of money!!

Apart from that I'll still go PODs in search of value, would be boring with the same cookie cutter teams!  One year it will all click  ;)