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AFL fantasy competitions => General Supercoach => Supercoach Team Advice => Topic started by: Money Shot on December 11, 2017, 03:16:08 PM

Title: Money Shot 2018
Post by: Money Shot on December 11, 2017, 03:16:08 PM
(https://i.gyazo.com/9c5a522ce83082b8abd42d7091684099.png)

First attempt with 11k in the bank.

Chose the 3/5/2/3 players who i think will be the top in there position by seasons end. Birchall and Bennell are my two mid pricers who i think will be good enough to make some great coin and potentially become D/F6 keepers. Have money for one of the first few draft picks in the middle whether it be Rayner/Brayshaw/Dow/Davies-Uniacke and the rest to be cheap rookies.

Let me know what you think.

------------------------------------

Mid Price Watchlist
Def: Birchall, Brayshaw, Wilson, Hanley
Mid: Graham, O'meara, Armitage, Coniglio
FWD: Bennell, Ah Chee, Christensen, Rioli, Delidio, Stringer, Lobb, Robinson, Petrecca, De Goey, Smith
Title: Re: Money Shot 2018
Post by: enzedder on December 11, 2017, 03:27:09 PM
Like your 3/5/2/3 player thinking.
I reckon you can't go past NicNat and Gawn for value but wouldn't be surprised if Ryder smashes them both on points.
As for the poll I reckon Hurley and Buddy looks the safest bet premo wise.
Good luck for the season.
Title: Re: Money Shot 2018
Post by: crowls on December 11, 2017, 04:18:17 PM
Good team MS.  Nailed the structure.   Now just need to get the rookies right.
Title: Re: Money Shot 2018
Post by: shaker on December 11, 2017, 04:49:05 PM
13 guns I will be going with same structure so I like your team  :P
Title: Re: Money Shot 2018
Post by: Huttabito on December 12, 2017, 01:24:56 PM
Pure Guns, couple of returning injured past premiums and the rest rookies? Gets my approval.

I was super keen on Menagloa however I'm not sure how Ablett will affect him. Huge punt being the top priced forward but that's just nitpicking, nice team!
Title: Re: Money Shot 2018
Post by: Money Shot on December 12, 2017, 03:20:08 PM
Like your 3/5/2/3 player thinking.
I reckon you can't go past NicNat and Gawn for value but wouldn't be surprised if Ryder smashes them both on points.
As for the poll I reckon Hurley and Buddy looks the safest bet premo wise.
Good luck for the season.
Yeah i would rather Nic Nat and Fyfe over Ryder and Coniglio though so im happy to lose a few points in the ruck department to get a top 5 mid in the midfield from the start of the season.

Good team MS.  Nailed the structure.   Now just need to get the rookies right.
Always the hardest part. Thanks mate.

13 guns I will be going with same structure so I like your team  :P
Cheers mate! always a good first draft the 3/5/2/3 structure.

Pure Guns, couple of returning injured past premiums and the rest rookies? Gets my approval.

I was super keen on Menagloa however I'm not sure how Ablett will affect him. Huge punt being the top priced forward but that's just nitpicking, nice team!

Thanks mate. Yeah Menagola is a bit of a risk with Ablett coming in but i feel as though Ablett may play as more of a half forward role like Motlop and Lang did last season. Obviously a wait and see but with Menegola being the most expensive forward it will always be easy to downgrade him to a Greene or a Billings.
Title: Re: Money Shot 2018
Post by: SilverLion on December 13, 2017, 11:28:50 AM
Sound structure, looks good all round. Can't critique on your mid-pricers as you have listed many that you could swap depending on injuries/JLT form ;D

I'm not sold on Yeo personally. His 102 average is flattered by his great start to last year, and we don't really know what position he'll find himself in. Just a bit too much risk for mine to start straight off the bat.

Title: Re: Money Shot 2018
Post by: Money Shot on December 13, 2017, 11:41:59 AM
Sound structure, looks good all round. Can't critique on your mid-pricers as you have listed many that you could swap depending on injuries/JLT form ;D

I'm not sold on Yeo personally. His 102 average is flattered by his great start to last year, and we don't really know what position he'll find himself in. Just a bit too much risk for mine to start straight off the bat.
Haha cheers mate, pretty much have every somewhat viable mid price option on my watchlist haha.

As for Yeo I do agree with you however the backline does not have any locks apart from Laird in my opinion now that Docherty is done for the season.

Yeo is only young and still improving and with Priddis and Mitchell retiring i think there is a chance that midfield minutes could come his way and if he looks like he is playing a non supercoach friendly role i can just downgrade him to someone like Hibberd.

thanks mate :)
Title: Re: Money Shot 2018
Post by: Ringo on December 13, 2017, 03:32:27 PM
Nice team and structure MS. Solid premiums, couple of fallen prems which you have explained and rookies as place holders.

Still not sold on Menengola with the Ablett effect but as you say plenty of alternatives.
Title: Re: Money Shot 2018
Post by: Money Shot on December 13, 2017, 03:35:51 PM
Nice team and structure MS. Solid premiums, couple of fallen prems which you have explained and rookies as place holders.

Still not sold on Menengola with the Ablett effect but as you say plenty of alternatives.
Cheers mate. Look into the Menegola thread for my reason on picking him... at this stage anyways.

thanks mate :)
Title: Re: Money Shot 2018
Post by: GoLions on December 14, 2017, 01:04:28 AM
Team looks really good. Not really anything to fault at this stage. Keep an eye on Heeney and Bennell i guess haha
Title: Re: Money Shot 2018
Post by: Money Shot on December 14, 2017, 10:19:55 AM
Team looks really good. Not really anything to fault at this stage. Keep an eye on Heeney and Bennell i guess haha
Cheers mate. Don't you worry about me I will be keeping an eye on every player this off season :P
Title: Re: Money Shot 2018
Post by: Money Shot on December 14, 2017, 10:30:50 AM
I told my self I wouldn't change my team this season until just before the JLT for a pre JLT side. But Holz has convinced me that starting with Menegola is not a smart option as there is a lot more down side than upside.

'Every year I seem to have one guy i go big time against the grain on, this year its Menegola

no way am i paying 550k for a guy who has played 25 games in his career

He averaged 93 with Selwood in the team in the regular season
He averaged 121 with Selwood out of the team

He averaged 85 in the finals (with selwood)

as others have said now you add Ablett into the squad.


seems absolutely insane to me to pick him up, whats the worse case in not picking him up he averages 100 again?

as long as you dont stuff up the other premo you pick instead its a few points lost. For the same price I can pick up Joel Selwood who has gone 105+ for the last 9 years with 7 of them 110+.

at his price 95 would be considered a passable mark. Danger Ablett Selwood Duncan i can see beating him in SC so barring injury can you see a 5th option at best going 95+?

He is officially Holz's Spud Pick of the year. Not saying he wont go 90+ im just not going near him with all that risk at that price.'


So I have made a few changes and will post shortly.
Title: Re: Money Shot 2018
Post by: GoLions on December 14, 2017, 11:07:31 AM
If 93 is his floor, then I'm happy :P

Buddy - Getting older, will he start to decline? Also, always has a rough patch where he bottoms out and you can pick him up cheaply
Heeney - Just went in for knee surgery...
Greene - Gets suspended way too easily
JJK - Like all KPFs, will drop in price eventually, and you can pick him up cheaper
Wingard - Quite a few new players coming in to the Port 22, and they have the early bye
Billings - Took the next step in 2017, can he go further again in 2018, or will he stay around a 90avg? (i have him as well fwiw)
Gray - Similar to Wingard, also was extremely inconsistent last year playing fwd, could happen again this year
Dixon - Another Port guy, early bye hurts, inconsistent as well so will definitely get cheaper
Dahl - Was poor last year, can he return to his best? (I'm backing him in for the moment)

After Menegola, those guys round out the top 10. Basically all have question marks on them, so I'm very happy to lock in Menegola for the time being.
Title: Re: Money Shot 2018
Post by: Money Shot on December 14, 2017, 11:12:11 AM
If 93 is his floor, then I'm happy :P

Buddy - Getting older, will he start to decline? Also, always has a rough patch where he bottoms out and you can pick him up cheaply
Heeney - Just went in for knee surgery...
Greene - Gets suspended way too easily
JJK - Like all KPFs, will drop in price eventually, and you can pick him up cheaper
Wingard - Quite a few new players coming in to the Port 22, and they have the early bye
Billings - Took the next step in 2017, can he go further again in 2018, or will he stay around a 90avg? (i have him as well fwiw)
Gray - Similar to Wingard, also was extremely inconsistent last year playing fwd, could happen again this year
Dixon - Another Port guy, early bye hurts, inconsistent as well so will definitely get cheaper
Dahl - Was poor last year, can he return to his best? (I'm backing him in for the moment)

After Menegola, those guys round out the top 10. Basically all have question marks on them, so I'm very happy to lock in Menegola for the time being.
Good Points but still think I will pass on Menegola.

Buddy is a gun, Heeney is only going to improve. Played with shot knees last season and still was a top 3 forward so he can do anything, Greene could be the top forward come seasons end if he doesnt get suspended which hopefully he will improve on as he matures.

Not touching Port/Gold Coast premiums at this stage.
Title: Re: Money Shot 2018
Post by: Money Shot on December 14, 2017, 11:19:04 AM
(https://i.gyazo.com/c72802150b1ff649a69a370b89dfc6ec.png)
Cash: $11,900

Few changes made here. Main one is Menegola out and Greene in.

If Greene doesn't get suspended which I think is a decent chance with him aging and maturing each and every year I think he has a good a chance of anyone to be the number one forward comes seasons end.

Rayner in the midfield gives me a DP link nice and early in the season which is always a bonus.
Title: Re: Money Shot 2018
Post by: Ringo on December 14, 2017, 03:13:05 PM
Nice team here MS although I thought you would have found a place in mids for your trusted player  :D

Josh Kelly an interesting selection though but may come off.

Now to nail the rookies.
Title: Re: Money Shot 2018
Post by: Money Shot on December 14, 2017, 03:56:57 PM
Nice team here MS although I thought you would have found a place in mids for your trusted player  :D

Josh Kelly an interesting selection though but may come off.

Now to nail the rookies.
Don't you worry mate I'm sure he will have the VC next to his name come round 1.

Kelly is young and only going to improve. I'm banking on him as being somewhat of a pod. Smith, Kennedy, Johnson, Mzungu and Wilson are no longer at the club and all of them would have rotated into the midfield meaning that Kelly could see even more minutes into the midfield. I am confident that he will be a top 10 midfielder and actually have him ranking 5th for most points come seasons end in my predictions.

Nailing the rookies is always the hardest part.
Title: Re: Money Shot 2018
Post by: SilverLion on December 15, 2017, 02:03:44 PM
3 most expensive backs, 3 of the 4 most expensive mids and 3 of the 4 most expensive forwards.

Very interesting, based on previous years it is rare for such a large number of the top players to remain the best. I would strongly consider downgrading one in each line, not necessarily to a mid pricer or rookie, could even be to a cheaper prem. This would give you the funds to strengthen your midfield, as IMO 3 rookies on the ground in the MID is stretching it a bit, as the midfield as we know is the where the largest amount of points come from.

Also, I'd steer clear of Greene for now personally, way too much risk for his price.
Title: Re: Money Shot 2018
Post by: Money Shot on December 15, 2017, 04:18:48 PM
3 most expensive backs, 3 of the 4 most expensive mids and 3 of the 4 most expensive forwards.

Very interesting, based on previous years it is rare for such a large number of the top players to remain the best. I would strongly consider downgrading one in each line, not necessarily to a mid pricer or rookie, could even be to a cheaper prem. This would give you the funds to strengthen your midfield, as IMO 3 rookies on the ground in the MID is stretching it a bit, as the midfield as we know is the where the largest amount of points come from.

Also, I'd steer clear of Greene for now personally, way too much risk for his price.
100% agree with you. Main reasoning behind it is I've gotten my structure the way I like it and now when it comes to the JLT I won't need to upgrade at all because I already have the most expensive players if that makes sense???

Hibberd over Hurley
Billings and Dahlhaus over Franklin and Greene
Are both likely but I'd rather downgrade then upgrade.

Greene I actually think could be a good pick with the new MRP rules haha.
Title: Re: Money Shot 2018
Post by: SilverLion on December 15, 2017, 07:24:06 PM
3 most expensive backs, 3 of the 4 most expensive mids and 3 of the 4 most expensive forwards.

Very interesting, based on previous years it is rare for such a large number of the top players to remain the best. I would strongly consider downgrading one in each line, not necessarily to a mid pricer or rookie, could even be to a cheaper prem. This would give you the funds to strengthen your midfield, as IMO 3 rookies on the ground in the MID is stretching it a bit, as the midfield as we know is the where the largest amount of points come from.

Also, I'd steer clear of Greene for now personally, way too much risk for his price.
100% agree with you. Main reasoning behind it is I've gotten my structure the way I like it and now when it comes to the JLT I won't need to upgrade at all because I already have the most expensive players if that makes sense???

Hibberd over Hurley
Billings and Dahlhaus over Franklin and Greene
Are both likely but I'd rather downgrade then upgrade.

Greene I actually think could be a good pick with the new MRP rules haha.

Ah fair enough then, suppose it's good that you've left your options open in that sense.

Guarantee he'll still find a way to cop weeks ;)
Title: Re: Money Shot 2018
Post by: Money Shot on December 16, 2017, 12:06:46 AM
3 most expensive backs, 3 of the 4 most expensive mids and 3 of the 4 most expensive forwards.

Very interesting, based on previous years it is rare for such a large number of the top players to remain the best. I would strongly consider downgrading one in each line, not necessarily to a mid pricer or rookie, could even be to a cheaper prem. This would give you the funds to strengthen your midfield, as IMO 3 rookies on the ground in the MID is stretching it a bit, as the midfield as we know is the where the largest amount of points come from.

Also, I'd steer clear of Greene for now personally, way too much risk for his price.
100% agree with you. Main reasoning behind it is I've gotten my structure the way I like it and now when it comes to the JLT I won't need to upgrade at all because I already have the most expensive players if that makes sense???

Hibberd over Hurley
Billings and Dahlhaus over Franklin and Greene
Are both likely but I'd rather downgrade then upgrade.

Greene I actually think could be a good pick with the new MRP rules haha.

Ah fair enough then, suppose it's good that you've left your options open in that sense.

Guarantee he'll still find a way to cop weeks ;)
Haha! No doubt he will ;D

Only reason Menegola isn't in the team is because he has only played 25 games and doesn't score well with Selwood in the team and with Ablett coming in it could be worse whereas other premiums have had a few years at the top and therefore are much more reliable.
Title: Re: Money Shot 2018
Post by: Money Shot on December 18, 2017, 12:03:11 PM
As I am pretty set on my side at the moment I thought I would do a little write up on why I have chosen the players I have chosen...

PART 1: DEFENDERS

Michael Hurley: Although Hurley started his career as a forward he was then trialled down back and then used as a swingman for his early years at the bombers which resulted in a lot of variation is his supercoach scoring. After the year off, he played almost permanently as a Backman which saw his scores become more consistent with 73 being his lowest score for the season and an average of 107.6 from round 5 onwards. He is in his prime and with a stronger Essendon team he may get even more intercept marks than last season with more pressured kicks coming into the backline. I think he is worth the high price tag at this stage and can’t see why he wouldn’t average 100+ again this season. 

Elliot Yeo: Last season he had some variation between his best and his worst with 5 scores being 120+ and 4 scores 80 or below. Hopefully this season as he gets one more year of preseason under his belt he can get rid of those low scores and add some more of those high ones. At 24 he could easily breakout again and become a lock down back. One would assume he is destined for more midfield minutes with both Priddis and Mitchell retiring which means more of the pill and therefore more points. Confident in him at this stage but if he seems to be playing a role that isn’t supercoach friendly over the JLT he will be out of my side.

Rory Laird: One of my supercoach love child’s after picking him for the last 2 seasons. Has averaged 90+ for the past 3 seasons and he is only 23 years of age. Scored above 120 seven times last season with 10 games at 110 or more and only scored below 70 once. Smith being out for the season doesn’t help but Gibbs coming in does. He won’t be that high on other people’s tagging lists with Sloane, Crouch brothers and now Gibbs probably receiving the tag first meaning that he will be allowed to run free and continue to get plenty of those 30+ possession 110+ point games in 2018. Was the first picked in my side this year believe it or not.

Grant Birchall: Honestly, I am not sold on Birchall. I think a 75-80 average is what we can expect from him this season although I do think he is a good chance to play 20+ games. The question is does that make him worth a spot in my side? He will score 10 more points per game than a rookie who is 150K less than him but he does have security which rookies don't as he is without a doubt in the hawks best 22. On the other hand for 150K more you could get someone who is a real chance at being a premium and scoring 10-15 points more per game (think Hanley). Currently he fits my structure but by no means will he be in my side come round one.

Ed Richards: I don’t usually lock rookies in this early but with Murphy and Boyd retiring two spots are left open and this kid is a red-hot chance to take one. The best part about this is the role he is likely to play is very supercoach friendly as well. He will play a rebounding defender role which is possibly the best role for a defender to play in terms of supercoach. Docherty, Laird and Hibberd all played that role last season and it turned out well for them. Averaging 70 and playing all games up until his bye doesn’t seem like to big a stretch and at 135k he is locked in my side as a D5-D6 assuming he lines up round 1.

Title: Re: Money Shot 2018
Post by: Money Shot on December 19, 2017, 10:02:30 AM
PART 2: MIDFIELDERS

Patrick Dangerfield: I have seen a few teams without him on this site which makes me happy because I know that they are teams I am going to beat. I don’t care how expensive he is he scored 138 or more in 15/21 games last season. I just don’t get peoples reasoning for not starting him. LOCK!

Dustin Martin: He is currently in my side for two reasons. 1 is his scoring ability which is evident with him scoring 120 or more in half his games last season. The second reason is he is just so good to watch, like many others I am fan girling over Dusty and I just want him in my team. Scoring may drop off a bit but he will be a top 5 midfielder without a doubt in my mind (I have him ranked 4th this season) So I may as well start with him and have another captain option from the get go.

Tom Mitchell: This guy is one of the few picks I got right last season bringing him in as my first upgrade after round 5/6. In my opinion he will average more this season than last because he will be playing in a team that will be winning more games. The only thing that stopped him from averaging 130 last season was his disposal efficiency and although it probably wont improve drastically him being in a stronger team that should win more games has to help.

Josh Kelly: This is the guy I am least confident in as he has only had one season as a super-premium. In saying that he is only 22 years of age and is still improving. The fact that he scored 176 in a game last season is the reason he is in my team at this stage because if he can become more consistent and have a couple more games that are 150+ he will be a top 5 mid for sure. The fact that 88 was his lowest score last season is also a bonus because it outlines that he doesn’t have bad games.

Nathan Fyfe: I think people are forgetting how good a player Fyfe is. In 2014/15 he averaged over 120 as a 22/23 year old. After the byes last season he averaged 121.3 and I can’t see why he won’t continue that form into next season. Thought he would be in pretty much every team but I am happy he isn’t. 597k for a return of a 120 average is good enough for me.
Title: Re: Money Shot 2018
Post by: SilverLion on December 19, 2017, 10:41:23 AM
Patrick Dangerfield: I have seen a few teams without him on this site which makes me happy because I know that they are teams I am going to beat. I don’t care how expensive he is he scored 138 or more in 15/21 games last season. I just don’t get peoples reasoning for not starting him. LOCK!

Still not totally sold on this. I started without him last year which people viewed as crazy just as it appears people are doing this year. However, Danger started last year with the following scores:

138, 140, 138, 90, 120, 65, 110, 112, 151 (118.2 average)

After which I brought him in at a price of $586k (Dropped $135k from starting price)

The only issue was that the midfielders I chose instead of him were largely failures (Hannebery, Treloar).

I think provided you are able to pick other options in your mids that can average 110+, you can get away with not starting Danger, as it is inevitable he will go down in price over the first half a dozen rounds (unless he goes 140+ every week, but even so, not the end of the world). The bonus advantage of this is if Danger starts poorly or gets injured, you're well ahead of the pack. Even if Danger did start the year on fire, provided you have chosen wisely, the point difference won't be that noticeable.

Example:

Zorko ($608k) + Coniglio ($450k) + 117k Rookie  ($1.175m)
110 + 100 + 65 = 275

Danger ($750k) + Armitage ($310k) + 117k Rookie ($1.167m)
130 + 80 + 65 = 275

The key arguement against not picking Danger is the captain scores, however again there are other reliable options who'll often go 120+ (Crouch, Zorko, Mitchell, Martin, Fyfe), so overall I'd say the advantages for not picking Danger slightly out way the disadvantages.

Thats the logic I used last year, which turned out to work well, but of course it could easily backfire this year.

Title: Re: Money Shot 2018
Post by: DCAK on December 19, 2017, 10:46:43 AM
Patrick Dangerfield: I have seen a few teams without him on this site which makes me happy because I know that they are teams I am going to beat. I don’t care how expensive he is he scored 138 or more in 15/21 games last season. I just don’t get peoples reasoning for not starting him. LOCK!

Still not totally sold on this. I started without him last year which people viewed as crazy just as it appears people are doing this year. However, Danger started last year with the following scores:

138, 140, 138, 90, 120, 65, 110, 112, 151 (118.2 average)

After which I brought him in at a price of $586k (Dropped $135k from starting price)

The only issue was that the midfielders I chose instead of him were largely failures (Hannebery, Treloar).

I think provided you are able to pick other options in your mids that can average 110+, you can get away with not starting Danger, as it is inevitable he will go down in price over the first half a dozen rounds (unless he goes 140+ every week, but even so, not the end of the world). The bonus advantage of this is if Danger starts poorly or gets injured, you're well ahead of the pack. Even if Danger did start the year on fire, provided you have chosen wisely, the point difference won't be that noticeable.

Example:

Zorko ($608k) + Coniglio ($450k) + 117k Rookie  ($1.175m)
110 + 100 + 65 = 275

Danger ($750k) + Armitage ($310k) + 117k Rookie ($1.167m)
130 + 80 + 65 = 275

The key arguement against not picking Danger is the captain scores, however again there are other reliable options who'll often go 120+ (Crouch, Zorko, Mitchell, Martin, Fyfe), so overall I'd say the advantages for not picking Danger slightly out way the disadvantages.

Thats the logic I used last year, which turned out to work well, but of course it could easily backfire this year.

It is not inevitable that Dangerfield's price will drop.
Title: Re: Money Shot 2018
Post by: Money Shot on December 19, 2017, 12:20:36 PM
Patrick Dangerfield: I have seen a few teams without him on this site which makes me happy because I know that they are teams I am going to beat. I don’t care how expensive he is he scored 138 or more in 15/21 games last season. I just don’t get peoples reasoning for not starting him. LOCK!

Still not totally sold on this. I started without him last year which people viewed as crazy just as it appears people are doing this year. However, Danger started last year with the following scores:

138, 140, 138, 90, 120, 65, 110, 112, 151 (118.2 average)

After which I brought him in at a price of $586k (Dropped $135k from starting price)

The only issue was that the midfielders I chose instead of him were largely failures (Hannebery, Treloar).

I think provided you are able to pick other options in your mids that can average 110+, you can get away with not starting Danger, as it is inevitable he will go down in price over the first half a dozen rounds (unless he goes 140+ every week, but even so, not the end of the world). The bonus advantage of this is if Danger starts poorly or gets injured, you're well ahead of the pack. Even if Danger did start the year on fire, provided you have chosen wisely, the point difference won't be that noticeable.

Example:

Zorko ($608k) + Coniglio ($450k) + 117k Rookie  ($1.175m)
110 + 100 + 65 = 275

Danger ($750k) + Armitage ($310k) + 117k Rookie ($1.167m)
130 + 80 + 65 = 275

The key arguement against not picking Danger is the captain scores, however again there are other reliable options who'll often go 120+ (Crouch, Zorko, Mitchell, Martin, Fyfe), so overall I'd say the advantages for not picking Danger slightly out way the disadvantages.

Thats the logic I used last year, which turned out to work well, but of course it could easily backfire this year.
I also had Hanners and Trealor last year so I know how you feel on that one :(

118.2 would have still been one of the top averages in the leauge by round 9 and although he did drop in price I would rather just start him so I don't need to worry about finding a way to get him later in the season because this season rookies could flop or Danger could come out on fire and it could mean that you have to use upwards of 3 trades to get him in which is just a waste of trades in my opinion if you have the opportunity to start him from the get go.

Also I think he would have been in the top 3-4 scorers in rounds 1, 2, 3 and 9 looking at those scores so even though you could get lucky and pick the right captain for those rounds it would be so much easier just to put the VC or C on him and make sure you aren't falling behind the pack from the get go.

You make a valid point saying that you could use the extra 150k else where but for me I would personally take Danger/Rayner over Merrett/O'meara which is what I would probably do if I didn't use Danger. Just think it is more of a risk to start without Danger than it is to start with him.


Title: Re: Money Shot 2018
Post by: SilverLion on December 19, 2017, 04:08:25 PM
Patrick Dangerfield: I have seen a few teams without him on this site which makes me happy because I know that they are teams I am going to beat. I don’t care how expensive he is he scored 138 or more in 15/21 games last season. I just don’t get peoples reasoning for not starting him. LOCK!

Still not totally sold on this. I started without him last year which people viewed as crazy just as it appears people are doing this year. However, Danger started last year with the following scores:

138, 140, 138, 90, 120, 65, 110, 112, 151 (118.2 average)

After which I brought him in at a price of $586k (Dropped $135k from starting price)

The only issue was that the midfielders I chose instead of him were largely failures (Hannebery, Treloar).

I think provided you are able to pick other options in your mids that can average 110+, you can get away with not starting Danger, as it is inevitable he will go down in price over the first half a dozen rounds (unless he goes 140+ every week, but even so, not the end of the world). The bonus advantage of this is if Danger starts poorly or gets injured, you're well ahead of the pack. Even if Danger did start the year on fire, provided you have chosen wisely, the point difference won't be that noticeable.

Example:

Zorko ($608k) + Coniglio ($450k) + 117k Rookie  ($1.175m)
110 + 100 + 65 = 275

Danger ($750k) + Armitage ($310k) + 117k Rookie ($1.167m)
130 + 80 + 65 = 275

The key arguement against not picking Danger is the captain scores, however again there are other reliable options who'll often go 120+ (Crouch, Zorko, Mitchell, Martin, Fyfe), so overall I'd say the advantages for not picking Danger slightly out way the disadvantages.

Thats the logic I used last year, which turned out to work well, but of course it could easily backfire this year.
I also had Hanners and Trealor last year so I know how you feel on that one :(

118.2 would have still been one of the top averages in the leauge by round 9 and although he did drop in price I would rather just start him so I don't need to worry about finding a way to get him later in the season because this season rookies could flop or Danger could come out on fire and it could mean that you have to use upwards of 3 trades to get him in which is just a waste of trades in my opinion if you have the opportunity to start him from the get go.

Also I think he would have been in the top 3-4 scorers in rounds 1, 2, 3 and 9 looking at those scores so even though you could get lucky and pick the right captain for those rounds it would be so much easier just to put the VC or C on him and make sure you aren't falling behind the pack from the get go.

You make a valid point saying that you could use the extra 150k else where but for me I would personally take Danger/Rayner over Merrett/O'meara which is what I would probably do if I didn't use Danger. Just think it is more of a risk to start without Danger than it is to start with him.

Yup he was around the top, but not 10+ points higher than anyone else like he is now ;)

I suppose you're right though, but I can definitely see reasons to pick him and reasons not to.

Title: Re: Money Shot 2018
Post by: Edgeovertherest on December 19, 2017, 04:54:16 PM
I personally sit in the "Start Dangerfield" camp but I can also see why you wouldn't start him because of what happened last year and how he is 100k higher than the 2nd ranked player. Keep in mind that he was injured for a few games which lowered his output so his starting output may increase meaning his price might not drop that much.

I was listening to the Dr.Supercoach podcast and one of the members gave a pretty good summary on why you should pick him up
Basically...
1. Danger was without a doubt the best SC player last player with a difference of about 15 points between 1st and 2nd (Martin) in terms of avg
2. Danger missed 1 game but his total score was still 200 points higher than Martin's
3. He may be 740k+ but he is there for a reason and he is unlikely to drop his output when compared to Martin who has won every award under the sun last season meaning his output may lower a bit. Danger on the other hand may be more pumped next year with Geelong.

They went more in depth and they gave more reasons (the other 2 were also convinced by his speech) which in turn ended up convincing me as well.
Title: Re: Money Shot 2018
Post by: Money Shot on December 19, 2017, 05:08:45 PM
I personally sit in the "Start Dangerfield" camp but I can also see why you wouldn't start him because of what happened last year and how he is 100k higher than the 2nd ranked player. Keep in mind that he was injured for a few games which lowered his output so his starting output may increase meaning his price might not drop that much.

I was listening to the Dr.Supercoach podcast and one of the members gave a pretty good summary on why you should pick him up
Basically...
1. Danger was without a doubt the best SC player last player with a difference of about 15 points between 1st and 2nd (Martin) in terms of avg
2. Danger missed 1 game but his total score was still 200 points higher than Martin's
3. He may be 740k+ but he is there for a reason and he is unlikely to drop his output when compared to Martin who has won every award under the sun last season meaning his output may lower a bit. Danger on the other hand may be more pumped next year with Geelong.

They went more in depth and they gave more reasons (the other 2 were also convinced by his speech) which in turn ended up convincing me as well.
Yeah it is just easier to start Danger than it is too not start him. Worst case scenario he plays one game and gets injured but you could literally trade him to anyone if he does and even if he has a bad start to the season and only averages 110 or so (yes that is a bad start for danger ;)) he will still be one of the top scorers regardless.

Yeah you could pick him up cheaper but you could pick up pretty much any mid premium at a cheaper price than what they started.

Im sure Martin/Mitchell/Kelly etc. will all drop in price too.

Pretty much what I am saying is no matter what I am starting Danger :P
Title: Re: Money Shot 2018
Post by: crowls on December 19, 2017, 05:35:25 PM
Spot on MS,  all prems and superprems tend to drop in price over the year as a function of the way scoring works.   Pretty sure you will pick up Martin for a fair bit less at some stage as well.  On the other hand cognilio is underpriced, Beams is probably underpriced, Pendles is another.   
Title: Re: Money Shot 2018
Post by: Money Shot on December 19, 2017, 05:53:11 PM
Spot on MS,  all prems and superprems tend to drop in price over the year as a function of the way scoring works.   Pretty sure you will pick up Martin for a fair bit less at some stage as well.  On the other hand cognilio is underpriced, Beams is probably underpriced, Pendles is another.
Add Selwood and Cripps too that list.

But you can't pick a team of players like that either.

You need a couple of the dangers/martins/Mitchell's in your team. After all they are that price for a reason.
Title: Re: Money Shot 2018
Post by: Money Shot on December 20, 2017, 03:20:34 PM
PART 3: RUCKS

Not really much to talk about here as I have went with a pretty generic combo.

Max Gawn: Would have picked him even if he was 100k more this season to be honest. In 2016 he went 140+ on 7 occasions which made him an incredible VC/C option and that was at the age of 23 he is now 25 and heading into his prime which means he could dominate opposition rucks more often which means more big scores. I see his discounted price as a bonus and don’t see him as a concern due to injury as it seems to be a one off.

Nic Nat: If he is fit you can just about lock in a 100-105 average which would easily be a top 5 ruck option and good enough to be a keeper but obviously that is where the risk lies. The thing that I like about Nic Nat is that everyone (50% of the comp) will pick him which means that if he does go down most of your opposition will be in the same boat. So although there is a chance he gets injured and those that don’t start him will get a jump on the pack I am happy to back him in for 18-20 games at a 100 average which should be good enough for the season.

Tim English: He is in because he played a few games late last year and even though he will probably only be good for 60 points if he plays it is better than a donut. Obviously if any other rookies get up for round 1 then they will be considered.

Ideally Nic Nat to Ryder is something I would do after ports early bye but obviously that would be a luxury.
Title: Re: Money Shot 2018
Post by: Money Shot on December 21, 2017, 11:27:58 AM
PART 4: FORWARDS

Lance Franklin: Obviously he is a key position forward which means he will have a few games where he kills it (3 games at 160+ last season) and he will have a few stinkers (2 games a below 50) but in saying that I believe he has every chance of being the number one forward come seasons end. He averaged 88.5 in the 8 losses Sydney had last season but in the 14 wins he averaged 104.1 and I think Sydney will improve on last season which is why I think Franklin could go 100+.

Isaac Heeney: This guy would be in pretty much every supercoach team at the moment if it wasn’t for his interrupted preseason however he has shown that no matter how interrupted his preseason may be he is always going to perform on game day. After returning from glandular fever he scored: 75, 107, 116 and then 130. If he started the season like that this season I would well and truly take that. He is only 21 and will only improve.

Toby Greene: My one and only concern with Greene is him getting ruled out by suspension but with the MRP rule changes I think he could finally play a full season. He has already averaged above 100 before in 2014 showing that he is a genuine chance for the #1 mantle at the end of the season based on average but the problem is him missing games. If he doesn’t get suspended which I am backing him to do I think anything is possible. He has only just turned 24 which is when most players start hitting there peak. He is a risk but at this stage I am willing to take it.

Harley Bennell: Injury is the only concern here as we all know his scoring potential. If he can stay on the park he is a genuine top 10 forward chance and I rate him much more highly than Christensen and Ah Chee who are the other two chances at his price. I am backing him in for a good season with a full preseason and one year left on his contract it is now or never for Bennell. He is a risk but at this stage I am willing to take it.

Jack Higgins: As I said with Richards, I don’t usually have rookies locked in my side from round 1 but if Higgins is named round 1 he is. He broke the Champion Data record with him scoring 100+ in 29/32 games during junior footy showing that he doesn’t have a bad game. Only problem is he is at Richmond who already have a plethora of small forwards.
Title: Re: Money Shot 2018
Post by: Peter on December 22, 2017, 12:20:06 PM
Another point to consider is Heeney always starts games well and has a stack of DT and SC points up by half-time. With the way the scoring works, he usually got to 100 points, even if he tired in the second half
Title: Re: Money Shot 2018
Post by: Money Shot on December 22, 2017, 02:04:28 PM
Another point to consider is Heeney always starts games well and has a stack of DT and SC points up by half-time. With the way the scoring works, he usually got to 100 points, even if he tired in the second half
Was not aware of that but it is good insight. Generally games are one in the first half therefore points will be worth more? is that what you are saying?

Obviously not true in close games...
Title: Re: Money Shot 2018
Post by: Peter on December 22, 2017, 04:36:47 PM
Yes, that is what I am saying. For a forward to be on 65-70 points at half time, as he was time and again, he didn't have to star in the second half to get to 90-100. In close games, the major points in the second half will go to the player instrumental in winning the game, but if you watch the first half of SC scores, if you start well, you will generally go close to 100+. As I had him in SC, RDT and AF from the start of 2017, really helped in piling up the points. Had Franklin as well for the whole season and had to rely on him coming home hard in games, scoring goals, to get a decent score and no way am I going to put myself through that again!
Title: Re: Money Shot 2018
Post by: Money Shot on December 23, 2017, 10:28:47 AM
Yes, that is what I am saying. For a forward to be on 65-70 points at half time, as he was time and again, he didn't have to star in the second half to get to 90-100. In close games, the major points in the second half will go to the player instrumental in winning the game, but if you watch the first half of SC scores, if you start well, you will generally go close to 100+. As I had him in SC, RDT and AF from the start of 2017, really helped in piling up the points. Had Franklin as well for the whole season and had to rely on him coming home hard in games, scoring goals, to get a decent score and no way am I going to put myself through that again!
That's really good to know! Thanks mate! However, I am confident that Franklin will have a good year even if it is 140 one week
And 60 the next.
Title: Re: Money Shot 2018
Post by: SilverLion on December 23, 2017, 04:20:42 PM
Yes, that is what I am saying. For a forward to be on 65-70 points at half time, as he was time and again, he didn't have to star in the second half to get to 90-100. In close games, the major points in the second half will go to the player instrumental in winning the game, but if you watch the first half of SC scores, if you start well, you will generally go close to 100+. As I had him in SC, RDT and AF from the start of 2017, really helped in piling up the points. Had Franklin as well for the whole season and had to rely on him coming home hard in games, scoring goals, to get a decent score and no way am I going to put myself through that again!
That's really good to know! Thanks mate! However, I am confident that Franklin will have a good year even if it is 140 one week
And 60 the next.

Tbh, that doesn't seem to be too bad this year for a starting forward prem, he looks like a better option than most. Would juuust take Heeney over him though.
Title: Re: Money Shot 2018
Post by: Peter on December 24, 2017, 09:52:49 AM
Also Sydney have very tough draw for first few rounds, so may be able to pick up Franklin as a cheapie later
Title: Re: Money Shot 2018
Post by: Money Shot on December 24, 2017, 04:04:47 PM
Yes, that is what I am saying. For a forward to be on 65-70 points at half time, as he was time and again, he didn't have to star in the second half to get to 90-100. In close games, the major points in the second half will go to the player instrumental in winning the game, but if you watch the first half of SC scores, if you start well, you will generally go close to 100+. As I had him in SC, RDT and AF from the start of 2017, really helped in piling up the points. Had Franklin as well for the whole season and had to rely on him coming home hard in games, scoring goals, to get a decent score and no way am I going to put myself through that again!
That's really good to know! Thanks mate! However, I am confident that Franklin will have a good year even if it is 140 one week
And 60 the next.
Tbh, that doesn't seem to be too bad this year for a starting forward prem, he looks like a better option than most. Would juuust take Heeney over him though.
exactly there are only a few players that I am extremely confident in going 90+ this season and he is one of them. Although it wont be a 70-120 every week which is ideal I am happy to go on the roller coaster with him haha :P

Title: Re: Money Shot 2018
Post by: Money Shot on December 24, 2017, 04:08:53 PM
Also Sydney have very tough draw for first few rounds, so may be able to pick up Franklin as a cheapie later
That is something to consider.

Eagles
Power
Giants
Bull Dogs
Crows
Geelong

In the first 6 rounds is tough.
Title: Re: Money Shot 2018
Post by: Peter on December 25, 2017, 09:08:31 AM
They could very easily be 0-6 again, although they haven’t got the injury issues this pre-season, according to all reports
Title: Re: Money Shot 2018
Post by: Money Shot on December 25, 2017, 06:37:27 PM
They could very easily be 0-6 again, although they haven’t got the injury issues this pre-season, according to all reports
Since Franklin has been a swan he has averaged 93.5 against the 6 teams he verses first up. Not great but I'll take it at this stage.
Title: Re: Money Shot 2018
Post by: Peter on December 26, 2017, 05:26:49 PM
Fair enough, but I’ll take Heeney, at this time
Title: Re: Money Shot 2018
Post by: Money Shot on January 09, 2018, 10:23:13 AM
Version 3

def: Hurley, Yeo, Laird, Birchall, Richards, Doedee (Murphy, Garner)
mid: Danger, Martin, Mitchell, Kelly, Fyfe, Rayner, Ahern, Freeman (Kelly, Walker, Worpel)
ruck: Gawn, Nic Nat (Cameron)
fwd: Heeney, Franklin, Greene, Christensen, Higgins, Venables (Daniels, Ryan)
cash: $10,200

A few changes made main one is Chrsitensen in for Bennell. I looked at Ah Chee but I'm not confident that he has it in him to average 80+ whereas Christensen has in the past. Have also had more of a look at the rookies that i think are likely to get games.

Bye structure is 4/5/6 for premiums (including Birchall and Christensen) which is perfect in my eyes.
Title: Re: Money Shot 2018
Post by: SilverLion on January 09, 2018, 10:27:00 AM
Version 3

def: Hurley, Yeo, Laird, Birchall, Richards, Doedee (Murphy, Garner)
mid: Danger, Martin, Mitchell, Kelly, Fyfe, Rayner, Ahern, Freeman (Kelly, Walker, Worpel)
ruck: Gawn, Nic Nat (Cameron)
fwd: Heeney, Franklin, Greene, Christensen, Higgins, Venables (Daniels, Ryan)
cash: $10,200

A few changes made main one is Chrsitensen in for Bennell. I looked at Ah Chee but I'm not confident that he has it in him to average 80+ whereas Christensen has in the past. Have also had more of a look at the rookies that i think are likely to get games.
Great side with strong DEFs and FWDs. Feel you're probably one mid prem short though (Cripps?).
Title: Re: Money Shot 2018
Post by: Money Shot on January 09, 2018, 10:34:57 AM
Although having another midfielder would be ideal I think that this season in particular will be stacked with midfield rookies that are capable of scoring well so I have decided that I would prefer to go one short in the midfield to allow me to get the right rookies.

Also gives me some time to get the Oliver and Kelly’s of 2018 in my side rather than only having two positions to fill.

Definitely understand where you’re coming from though as I could fall behind the pack early.
Title: Re: Money Shot 2018
Post by: Peter on January 09, 2018, 02:07:43 PM
I agree with MS - presuming the top 4 draft picks all start, you can afford to go one less in mids to strengthen backs and forwards. Great team MS!
Title: Re: Money Shot 2018
Post by: Money Shot on January 09, 2018, 05:46:22 PM
I agree with MS - presuming the top 4 draft picks all start, you can afford to go one less in mids to strengthen backs and forwards. Great team MS!
Thanks mate. Looking at rookies this year I just can’t see any defender rookies (apart from Doedee) that look like viable options on the field so that is the reason why I’m going with one less mid premium as it allows me to get an extra premium in my defence. It is also the reason I’m going with Birchall as although I am not sold on many defender rookies getting games and at least Birchall will play and score 70+ most weeks.

I know rookies always pop up each year but I think the only rookie priced players that look like a genuine chance are key position players and I don’t want them in my team.

Obviously if more rookies pop up I might change my structure around a bit but I would rather start out with a “safe” line up.
Title: Re: Money Shot 2018
Post by: crowls on January 09, 2018, 05:55:05 PM
I agree with MS - presuming the top 4 draft picks all start, you can afford to go one less in mids to strengthen backs and forwards. Great team MS!
Thanks mate. Looking at rookies this year I just can’t see any defender rookies (apart from Doedee) that look like viable options on the field so that is the reason why I’m going with one less mid premium as it allows me to get an extra premium in my defence. It is also the reason I’m going with Birchall as although I am not sold on many defender rookies getting games and at least Birchall will play and score 70+ most weeks.

I know rookies always pop up each year but I think the only rookie priced players that look like a genuine chance are key position players and I don’t want them in my team.

Obviously if more rookies pop up I might change my structure around a bit but I would rather start out with a “safe” line up.
Think you have done better teams MS.    Hurley is priced at his peak and just don't like taking KPP; little own at their peak.    Rather Yeo (later) or Simmo or Williams.     Like the mid approach and gives you flexibility. 
Title: Re: Money Shot 2018
Post by: Money Shot on January 10, 2018, 09:34:49 AM
I agree with MS - presuming the top 4 draft picks all start, you can afford to go one less in mids to strengthen backs and forwards. Great team MS!
Thanks mate. Looking at rookies this year I just can’t see any defender rookies (apart from Doedee) that look like viable options on the field so that is the reason why I’m going with one less mid premium as it allows me to get an extra premium in my defence. It is also the reason I’m going with Birchall as although I am not sold on many defender rookies getting games and at least Birchall will play and score 70+ most weeks.

I know rookies always pop up each year but I think the only rookie priced players that look like a genuine chance are key position players and I don’t want them in my team.

Obviously if more rookies pop up I might change my structure around a bit but I would rather start out with a “safe” line up.
Think you have done better teams MS.    Hurley is priced at his peak and just don't like taking KPP; little own at their peak.    Rather Yeo (later) or Simmo or Williams.     Like the mid approach and gives you flexibility.
Thanks for the feedback Crowls, I appreciate it.

On Hurley, His lowest score for the season was 73 which means he didn't have a bad game. He averaged 107.6 from round 5 onwards so believe it or not he could increase his average by 5 although I am not expecting that haha. He is in his prime with an Essendon team that will be more competitive this season than last meaning he could get even more intercept marks from rushed opposition kicks. So for now he stays.

Hibberd is the guy I would bring in for him because he was a top 6 defender last year and he has even more upside this year.




Title: Re: Money Shot 2018
Post by: SilverLion on January 10, 2018, 10:08:18 AM
I agree with MS - presuming the top 4 draft picks all start, you can afford to go one less in mids to strengthen backs and forwards. Great team MS!
Thanks mate. Looking at rookies this year I just can’t see any defender rookies (apart from Doedee) that look like viable options on the field so that is the reason why I’m going with one less mid premium as it allows me to get an extra premium in my defence. It is also the reason I’m going with Birchall as although I am not sold on many defender rookies getting games and at least Birchall will play and score 70+ most weeks.

I know rookies always pop up each year but I think the only rookie priced players that look like a genuine chance are key position players and I don’t want them in my team.

Obviously if more rookies pop up I might change my structure around a bit but I would rather start out with a “safe” line up.
Think you have done better teams MS.    Hurley is priced at his peak and just don't like taking KPP; little own at their peak.    Rather Yeo (later) or Simmo or Williams.     Like the mid approach and gives you flexibility.
Thanks for the feedback Crowls, I appreciate it.

On Hurley, His lowest score for the season was 73 which means he didn't have a bad game. He averaged 107.6 from round 5 onwards so believe it or not he could increase his average by 5 although I am not expecting that haha. He is in his prime with an Essendon team that will be more competitive this season than last meaning he could get even more intercept marks from rushed opposition kicks. So for now he stays.

Hibberd is the guy I would bring in for him because he was a top 6 defender last year and he has even more upside this year.

Do like the Hurley selection, I think most would agree he will finish the year as a top 5 defender, so hard to fault selecting him from the start.
Title: Re: Money Shot 2018
Post by: Money Shot on January 10, 2018, 10:13:27 AM
I personally think all of Hurley, Yeo, Laird, Danger, Martin, Mitchell etc will drop in price so unless I was to start a team full over rookies and under priced premiums I am going to have to accept that most of my premium selections will drop in price.
Title: Re: Money Shot 2018
Post by: crowls on January 10, 2018, 10:19:56 AM
I agree with MS - presuming the top 4 draft picks all start, you can afford to go one less in mids to strengthen backs and forwards. Great team MS!
Thanks mate. Looking at rookies this year I just can’t see any defender rookies (apart from Doedee) that look like viable options on the field so that is the reason why I’m going with one less mid premium as it allows me to get an extra premium in my defence. It is also the reason I’m going with Birchall as although I am not sold on many defender rookies getting games and at least Birchall will play and score 70+ most weeks.

I know rookies always pop up each year but I think the only rookie priced players that look like a genuine chance are key position players and I don’t want them in my team.

Obviously if more rookies pop up I might change my structure around a bit but I would rather start out with a “safe” line up.
Think you have done better teams MS.    Hurley is priced at his peak and just don't like taking KPP; little own at their peak.    Rather Yeo (later) or Simmo or Williams.     Like the mid approach and gives you flexibility.
Thanks for the feedback Crowls, I appreciate it.

On Hurley, His lowest score for the season was 73 which means he didn't have a bad game. He averaged 107.6 from round 5 onwards so believe it or not he could increase his average by 5 although I am not expecting that haha. He is in his prime with an Essendon team that will be more competitive this season than last meaning he could get even more intercept marks from rushed opposition kicks. So for now he stays.

Hibberd is the guy I would bring in for him because he was a top 6 defender last year and he has even more upside this year.

Do like the Hurley selection, I think most would agree he will finish the year as a top 5 defender, so hard to fault selecting him from the start.
Hurley will be in my team come EOY, i am not wanting to overpay for him.   So if timing works out somewhere between rnd 8 - 15 at about 480K  save 80k on buy in price.  Nothing wrong with starting him ecept paying top dollar for defenders.  Extra cash goes into having a better f4 or m6
Title: Re: Money Shot 2018
Post by: SilverLion on January 10, 2018, 10:23:27 AM
I agree with MS - presuming the top 4 draft picks all start, you can afford to go one less in mids to strengthen backs and forwards. Great team MS!
Thanks mate. Looking at rookies this year I just can’t see any defender rookies (apart from Doedee) that look like viable options on the field so that is the reason why I’m going with one less mid premium as it allows me to get an extra premium in my defence. It is also the reason I’m going with Birchall as although I am not sold on many defender rookies getting games and at least Birchall will play and score 70+ most weeks.

I know rookies always pop up each year but I think the only rookie priced players that look like a genuine chance are key position players and I don’t want them in my team.

Obviously if more rookies pop up I might change my structure around a bit but I would rather start out with a “safe” line up.
Think you have done better teams MS.    Hurley is priced at his peak and just don't like taking KPP; little own at their peak.    Rather Yeo (later) or Simmo or Williams.     Like the mid approach and gives you flexibility.
Thanks for the feedback Crowls, I appreciate it.

On Hurley, His lowest score for the season was 73 which means he didn't have a bad game. He averaged 107.6 from round 5 onwards so believe it or not he could increase his average by 5 although I am not expecting that haha. He is in his prime with an Essendon team that will be more competitive this season than last meaning he could get even more intercept marks from rushed opposition kicks. So for now he stays.

Hibberd is the guy I would bring in for him because he was a top 6 defender last year and he has even more upside this year.

Do like the Hurley selection, I think most would agree he will finish the year as a top 5 defender, so hard to fault selecting him from the start.
Hurley will be in my team come EOY, i am not wanting to overpay for him.   So if timing works out somewhere between rnd 8 - 15 at about 480K  save 80k on buy in price.  Nothing wrong with starting him ecept paying top dollar for defenders.  Extra cash goes into having a better f4 or m6
True but he could easily be selected in place of Laird in most teams, only 15k in price and that could probably be justified. As you say though, the balance between the value and proven prems is what makes or breaks a side.
Title: Re: Money Shot 2018
Post by: Money Shot on January 10, 2018, 11:29:15 AM
I get what your saying about Hurley dropping in price but if he is averaging 100 from the outset I will happily take that whether he drops in price or not.

Only reason I would drop him is if it was the only way it allowed me to get Lobb in at F4 if he is killing it in the JLT
Title: Re: Money Shot 2018
Post by: rebird on January 10, 2018, 03:01:02 PM
I think a consideration is whether a premium is going to increase their average.  If their average increases then their price is less likely to fall and may even increase. I think Hurley might do this and therefore should be considered in front of Laird and Yeo who are more likely to maintain their averages.
Title: Re: Money Shot 2018
Post by: Money Shot on January 10, 2018, 03:04:54 PM
I think a consideration is whether a premium is going to increase their average.  If their average increases then their price is less likely to fall and may even increase. I think Hurley might do this and therefore should be considered in front of Laird and Yeo who are more likely to maintain their averages.
Crowls thinks that Hurley won't maintain his average across the whole season so if he is right then not picking him is right but if he maintains/increases his average then it would be good selecting him.
Title: Re: Money Shot 2018
Post by: Peter on January 10, 2018, 03:41:00 PM
Agree with Crowls - get a second tier defender (plenty to choose from), then pick him up as season progresses. Money saved can be used to buy 2 decent top rookies, rather than 2 placeholders
Title: Re: Money Shot 2018
Post by: Money Shot on January 10, 2018, 03:51:02 PM
Agree with Crowls - get a second tier defender (plenty to choose from), then pick him up as season progresses. Money saved can be used to buy 2 decent top rookies, rather than 2 placeholders
Can see where you are coming from completely and it is by no means a bad idea.

Hurley (100) + basement rookies (55)
Witherden (90) + Brayshaw/Davies-Uniacke (65)

Although they end up scoring the same (give or take) You have a top 6 defender in one scenario but less money making ability and in the other you have a solid D6 but the best available rookies who will be able to get you a fallen premium quicker.

For now I am sticking with Hurley as I think he could improve his average potentially but I have considered the alternative as well.
Title: Re: Money Shot 2018
Post by: Footyrulz on January 11, 2018, 12:01:00 PM
Version 3

def: Hurley, Yeo, Laird, Birchall, Richards, Doedee (Murphy, Garner)
mid: Danger, Martin, Mitchell, Kelly, Fyfe, Rayner, Ahern, Freeman (Kelly, Walker, Worpel)
ruck: Gawn, Nic Nat (Cameron)
fwd: Heeney, Franklin, Greene, Christensen, Higgins, Venables (Daniels, Ryan)
cash: $10,200

A few changes made main one is Chrsitensen in for Bennell. I looked at Ah Chee but I'm not confident that he has it in him to average 80+ whereas Christensen has in the past. Have also had more of a look at the rookies that i think are likely to get games.

Bye structure is 4/5/6 for premiums (including Birchall and Christensen) which is perfect in my eyes.

I doubt there will be that many good rookies available (you currently have 14 + a ruckman). You might need to get a couple more mid pricers for premium and rookie when the round 1 teams are announced.

Can't see Buddy not dropping off, given his age and skewed scoring last year with 3 160s, which followed two years under a 95 average. Other than that, looks great!
Title: Re: Money Shot 2018
Post by: Money Shot on January 11, 2018, 01:22:31 PM
Version 3

def: Hurley, Yeo, Laird, Birchall, Richards, Doedee (Murphy, Garner)
mid: Danger, Martin, Mitchell, Kelly, Fyfe, Rayner, Ahern, Freeman (Kelly, Walker, Worpel)
ruck: Gawn, Nic Nat (Cameron)
fwd: Heeney, Franklin, Greene, Christensen, Higgins, Venables (Daniels, Ryan)
cash: $10,200

A few changes made main one is Chrsitensen in for Bennell. I looked at Ah Chee but I'm not confident that he has it in him to average 80+ whereas Christensen has in the past. Have also had more of a look at the rookies that i think are likely to get games.

Bye structure is 4/5/6 for premiums (including Birchall and Christensen) which is perfect in my eyes.

I doubt there will be that many good rookies available (you currently have 14 + a ruckman). You might need to get a couple more mid pricers for premium and rookie when the round 1 teams are announced.

Can't see Buddy not dropping off, given his age and skewed scoring last year with 3 160s, which followed two years under a 95 average. Other than that, looks great!

Thanks for your thoughts FR.

Looking at last years starting side I had Marchbank and Hoskin-Elliot + 12 rookie priced players including a ruckman. So based on last years team I may need to downgrade a premium and upgrade a rookie but I will do that if needed.
Title: Re: Money Shot 2018
Post by: Footyrulz on January 11, 2018, 01:39:44 PM
Version 3

def: Hurley, Yeo, Laird, Birchall, Richards, Doedee (Murphy, Garner)
mid: Danger, Martin, Mitchell, Kelly, Fyfe, Rayner, Ahern, Freeman (Kelly, Walker, Worpel)
ruck: Gawn, Nic Nat (Cameron)
fwd: Heeney, Franklin, Greene, Christensen, Higgins, Venables (Daniels, Ryan)
cash: $10,200

A few changes made main one is Chrsitensen in for Bennell. I looked at Ah Chee but I'm not confident that he has it in him to average 80+ whereas Christensen has in the past. Have also had more of a look at the rookies that i think are likely to get games.

Bye structure is 4/5/6 for premiums (including Birchall and Christensen) which is perfect in my eyes.

I doubt there will be that many good rookies available (you currently have 14 + a ruckman). You might need to get a couple more mid pricers for premium and rookie when the round 1 teams are announced.

Can't see Buddy not dropping off, given his age and skewed scoring last year with 3 160s, which followed two years under a 95 average. Other than that, looks great!

Thanks for your thoughts FR.

Looking at last years starting side I had Marchbank and Hoskin-Elliot + 12 rookie priced players including a ruckman. So based on last years team I may need to downgrade a premium and upgrade a rookie but I will do that if needed.

The problem is, this year there are no Marchbanks, Witts or Hoskis. The only 200k guys are first year players. I can see a lot of people stuck with crappy rookies.
Title: Re: Money Shot 2018
Post by: Money Shot on January 11, 2018, 01:53:08 PM
Version 3

def: Hurley, Yeo, Laird, Birchall, Richards, Doedee (Murphy, Garner)
mid: Danger, Martin, Mitchell, Kelly, Fyfe, Rayner, Ahern, Freeman (Kelly, Walker, Worpel)
ruck: Gawn, Nic Nat (Cameron)
fwd: Heeney, Franklin, Greene, Christensen, Higgins, Venables (Daniels, Ryan)
cash: $10,200

A few changes made main one is Chrsitensen in for Bennell. I looked at Ah Chee but I'm not confident that he has it in him to average 80+ whereas Christensen has in the past. Have also had more of a look at the rookies that i think are likely to get games.

Bye structure is 4/5/6 for premiums (including Birchall and Christensen) which is perfect in my eyes.

I doubt there will be that many good rookies available (you currently have 14 + a ruckman). You might need to get a couple more mid pricers for premium and rookie when the round 1 teams are announced.

Can't see Buddy not dropping off, given his age and skewed scoring last year with 3 160s, which followed two years under a 95 average. Other than that, looks great!

Thanks for your thoughts FR.

Looking at last years starting side I had Marchbank and Hoskin-Elliot + 12 rookie priced players including a ruckman. So based on last years team I may need to downgrade a premium and upgrade a rookie but I will do that if needed.

The problem is, this year there are no Marchbanks, Witts or Hoskis. The only 200k guys are first year players. I can see a lot of people stuck with crappy rookies.
I agree that in the backline especially people will struggle to find rookies so those than have someone like O’shea At D4 are going to be in for a shock but ....

Rayner, Brayshaw, Davies-Uniacke and Dow although 200k are all going to play and make money. There are always a few cheaper guys as well that come through also.

I’m not to worried just yet but can understand your concern.
Title: Re: Money Shot 2018
Post by: Money Shot on January 11, 2018, 01:54:40 PM
Franklin is very close to turning into Billings. 

I thought Franklin always had a few games where he went 140+ each season but:

Franklin's scores above 140 as a swan
2014: 146, 155, 168
2015: 149
2016: 141
2017: 160, 164, 183

So he is not a given to score 140+ 3 or so times a year to boost his average like I first thought. If you turn those 3 massive games he had into 130 which is more probable for next season he loses 117 points which brings his average to 93 exactly. He is 31 so isn't going to get any better. Sydney’s draw isn’t incredibly easy for Sydney either which may hinder his scoring.

Billings on the other hand who averaged 92.7 across last season as well as averaging 100 from round 7 onwards last year. He is only 22 and has natural improve and more midfield time on the cards. He also has the lions and kangas in the first two rounds. 30 possies, 4 goals and 140 supercoach points coming up? ;)

What is everyone’s thoughts on Franklin v Billings?
Title: Re: Money Shot 2018
Post by: SilverLion on January 11, 2018, 05:16:55 PM
Franklin is very close to turning into Billings. 

I thought Franklin always had a few games where he went 140+ each season but:

Franklin's scores above 140 as a swan
2014: 146, 155, 168
2015: 149
2016: 141
2017: 160, 164, 183

So he is not a given to score 140+ 3 or so times a year to boost his average like I first thought. If you turn those 3 massive games he had into 130 which is more probable for next season he loses 117 points which brings his average to 93 exactly. He is 31 so isn't going to get any better. Sydney’s draw isn’t incredibly easy for Sydney either which may hinder his scoring.

Billings on the other hand who averaged 92.7 across last season as well as averaging 100 from round 7 onwards last year. He is only 22 and has natural improve and more midfield time on the cards. He also has the lions and kangas in the first two rounds. 30 possies, 4 goals and 140 supercoach points coming up? ;)

What is everyone’s thoughts on Franklin v Billings?

Like them both. Had Billings locked in since day 1 though due to his favorable draw/bye and the fact that he is on the up. Franklin will be in the top 10 come seasons end but is one of those players that isn't necessary to start. I'd recommend pocketing the ~35k and running with Billings.
Title: Re: Money Shot 2018
Post by: enzedder on January 12, 2018, 05:44:04 AM
Franklin is very close to turning into Billings. 

I thought Franklin always had a few games where he went 140+ each season but:

Franklin's scores above 140 as a swan
2014: 146, 155, 168
2015: 149
2016: 141
2017: 160, 164, 183

So he is not a given to score 140+ 3 or so times a year to boost his average like I first thought. If you turn those 3 massive games he had into 130 which is more probable for next season he loses 117 points which brings his average to 93 exactly. He is 31 so isn't going to get any better. Sydney’s draw isn’t incredibly easy for Sydney either which may hinder his scoring.

Billings on the other hand who averaged 92.7 across last season as well as averaging 100 from round 7 onwards last year. He is only 22 and has natural improve and more midfield time on the cards. He also has the lions and kangas in the first two rounds. 30 possies, 4 goals and 140 supercoach points coming up? ;)

What is everyone’s thoughts on Franklin v Billings?

Like them both. Had Billings locked in since day 1 though due to his favorable draw/bye and the fact that he is on the up. Franklin will be in the top 10 come seasons end but is one of those players that isn't necessary to start. I'd recommend pocketing the ~35k and running with Billings.

Good research on Buddy there mate and logical reasoning.
Billings is the Saint we're all excited about. Will keep improving and will play more in the midfield this season.. Brought in as an elite kick and there has been plenty of evidence of that, unbelievably though not in front of the big sticks....you can bet your bottom dollar he has been working hard on improving his goals to behinds ratio and I cannot see him being that bad again. He's played 64 games now so is coming into that time where he will put more of a stamp on games.
Billings gets the nod from me.
Title: Re: Money Shot 2018
Post by: Money Shot on January 12, 2018, 09:52:54 AM
Version 4

def: Hurley, Yeo, Laird, Brayshaw, Richards, Doedee (Murphy, Garner)
mid: Danger, Martin, Mitchell, Kelly, Fyfe, Rayner, Ahern, Freeman (Kelly, Walker, Worpel)
ruck: Gawn, Nic Nat (Cameron)
fwd: Heeney, Greene, Billings, Christensen, Higgins, Venables (Daniels, Ryan)
cash: $1,600

Franklin is too up and down for my liking and on the wrong side of 30 and Billings is up and coming and has the two worst teams of the comp up first so he is in.

Birchall is out as he has been having more complications and I don't want to downgrade him as a rookie as I don't think 5 rookies will get up and play round one at this stage. And I don't want to spend money on a premium either as it would effect other lines.

So in comes Brayshaw my breakout contender. 
Title: Re: Money Shot 2018
Post by: enzedder on January 12, 2018, 10:55:46 AM
Version 4

def: Hurley, Yeo, Laird, Brayshaw, Richards, Doedee (Murphy, Garner)
mid: Danger, Martin, Mitchell, Kelly, Fyfe, Rayner, Ahern, Freeman (Kelly, Walker, Worpel)
ruck: Gawn, Nic Nat (Cameron)
fwd: Heeney, Greene, Billings, Christensen, Higgins, Venables (Daniels, Ryan)
cash: $1,600

Franklin is too up and down for my liking and on the wrong side of 30 and Billings is up and coming and has the two worst teams of the comp up first so he is in.

Birchall is out as he has been having more complications and I don't want to downgrade him as a rookie as I don't think 5 rookies will get up and play round one at this stage. And I don't want to spend money on a premium either as it would effect other lines.

So in comes Brayshaw my breakout contender.
Easy poll mate Billings 6 Buddy 0... pretty good sign there.
Brayshaw v Birchall could be a nil all draw...  ;)
Title: Re: Money Shot 2018
Post by: Money Shot on January 12, 2018, 12:51:54 PM
Version 4

def: Hurley, Yeo, Laird, Brayshaw, Richards, Doedee (Murphy, Garner)
mid: Danger, Martin, Mitchell, Kelly, Fyfe, Rayner, Ahern, Freeman (Kelly, Walker, Worpel)
ruck: Gawn, Nic Nat (Cameron)
fwd: Heeney, Greene, Billings, Christensen, Higgins, Venables (Daniels, Ryan)
cash: $1,600

Franklin is too up and down for my liking and on the wrong side of 30 and Billings is up and coming and has the two worst teams of the comp up first so he is in.

Birchall is out as he has been having more complications and I don't want to downgrade him as a rookie as I don't think 5 rookies will get up and play round one at this stage. And I don't want to spend money on a premium either as it would effect other lines.

So in comes Brayshaw my breakout contender.
Easy poll mate Billings 6 Buddy 0... pretty good sign there.
Brayshaw v Birchall could be a nil all draw...  ;)
Hahahaha I told myself I would never try and guess a breakout contender again after so many failed attempts but here I am again. One breakout contender can't hurt too much I say. :P

Title: Re: Money Shot 2018
Post by: PassivePenguin on January 12, 2018, 03:16:22 PM
Birchall is out as he has been having more complications and I don't want to downgrade him as a rookie as I don't think 5 rookies will get up and play round one at this stage. And I don't want to spend money on a premium either as it would effect other lines.

So in comes Brayshaw my breakout contender.

Ciaran Byrne I have heard is a good option according to some Carlton fans if you wanted to free up some funds in that D4 position. Brayshaw is bit of a risk as I feel he has had 1 too many concussions for my liking.
Title: Re: Money Shot 2018
Post by: Money Shot on January 12, 2018, 03:26:26 PM
Birchall is out as he has been having more complications and I don't want to downgrade him as a rookie as I don't think 5 rookies will get up and play round one at this stage. And I don't want to spend money on a premium either as it would effect other lines.

So in comes Brayshaw my breakout contender.

Ciaran Byrne I have heard is a good option according to some Carlton fans if you wanted to free up some funds in that D4 position. Brayshaw is bit of a risk as I feel he has had 1 too many concussions for my liking.
Brayshaw and his concussions are a concern but at this stage I am really considering taking the risk.

I am a Carlton supporter and have looked into Byrne and have decided not too take him. I think Simpson and Mullet will have the small rebouding defender role covered this year and if Byrne was too get games it would be more of a lockdown non supercoach friendly role. However, at his price I can understand why some people would take the risk.
Title: Re: Money Shot 2018
Post by: Peter on January 12, 2018, 05:45:22 PM
Who is going to make more points - the extra defender or an extra midfielder? Think you gave one defender too many
Title: Re: Money Shot 2018
Post by: Money Shot on January 12, 2018, 06:48:47 PM
Who is going to make more points - the extra defender or an extra midfielder? Think you gave one defender too many
100% agree but I don’t think there will be 5 cheap defenders available. If there is then it will make everyone’s life a lot more easy.
Title: Re: Money Shot 2018
Post by: SilverLion on January 13, 2018, 10:26:20 AM
Who is going to make more points - the extra defender or an extra midfielder? Think you gave one defender too many
100% agree but I don’t think there will be 5 cheap defenders available. If there is then it will make everyone’s life a lot more easy.
+1
Title: Re: Money Shot 2018
Post by: Money Shot on January 13, 2018, 11:07:05 AM
FYI last year I had Higgins in my team all preseason but people talked me out of it and he ended up playing 22 games and averaging 91 which would’ve been a great return.

This year I think Brayshaw will be that guy. I really like him but I know other people will end up talking me out of it because logic suggests he isn’t the best pick :P
Title: Re: Money Shot 2018
Post by: Peter on January 13, 2018, 12:13:44 PM
The same with Sicily and Crisp - can gamble with Backs a bit
Title: Re: Money Shot 2018
Post by: SilverLion on January 13, 2018, 04:33:21 PM
The same with Sicily and Crisp - can gamble with Backs a bit
Yeah I don't mind Crisp as a bit of a smoky.
Title: Re: Money Shot 2018
Post by: Money Shot on January 15, 2018, 09:50:43 AM
Version 4

def: Hurley, Yeo, Laird, Brayshaw, Richards, Doedee (Murphy, Garner)
mid: Danger, Martin, Mitchell, Crouch, Fyfe, Rayner, Ahern, Freeman (Kelly, Walker, Worpel)
ruck: Gawn, Nic Nat (Cameron)
fwd: Heeney, Greene, Billings, Christensen, Higgins, Venables (Daniels, Ryan)
cash: $21,900

Pretty happy with my team now.

Either of Yeo/Laird could become Hibberd but for now purely because of bye structure Yeo and Laird are in front.

From the start of the season I said I want the 3/5/3 players who I think will be the top in there positions come seasons end and I think I have that at this stage.
Title: Re: Money Shot 2018
Post by: Ashmore62 on January 15, 2018, 10:48:06 AM
Crouch or Kelly is my new major decision.

Crouch averaged 125 after the byes last season and didn't go below 118 in the finals as well. He is a ball magnet and will be in side that will be getting a lot of the ball. Only thing that is putting me off him is that he shares the same bye as Danger, Dusty and Fyfe who are all locks in my side.

Kelly: has a favourable bye and has shown that he can go 110+ across a whole season. He will be in a stronger team this year and will have natural improvement as well.

What is everyone's thoughts on the two???

If they had the same bye who would you choose??? 
Kelly for mine though It's one of the toughest picks to stew over. Both similar, Recon Gibbs is going to effect Crows midfield in a good way which may take away a little from Crouch.. I'm sure you'll pick wisely MS. :)
Title: Re: Money Shot 2018
Post by: Peter on January 15, 2018, 11:50:43 AM
Going tor Kelly - higher ceiling, favourable bye, more favourable stats ratios
Title: Re: Money Shot 2018
Post by: DCAK on January 15, 2018, 11:53:45 AM
Crouch or Kelly is my new major decision.

Crouch averaged 125 after the byes last season and didn't go below 118 in the finals as well. He is a ball magnet and will be in side that will be getting a lot of the ball. Only thing that is putting me off him is that he shares the same bye as Danger, Dusty and Fyfe who are all locks in my side.

Kelly: has a favourable bye and has shown that he can go 110+ across a whole season. He will be in a stronger team this year and will have natural improvement as well.

What is everyone's thoughts on the two???

If they had the same bye who would you choose???

I think that as neither of these guys are 'must have's' (like Danger, Titch, Fyfe, Dusty) perhaps you could let your decision be guided by bye structure, so Kelly for mine.
Title: Re: Money Shot 2018
Post by: Money Shot on January 16, 2018, 12:16:40 PM
Kelly and Crouch:

Similarities: Same age, same height and weight, both in a top 4 team, both broke out last season, both signed on to there respective clubs recently. Similar disposal efficiency. Both scored well over finals and will be somewhat of a pod.

Crouch Positives: averaged 4 more possessions a game 33 compared to Kelly’s 29.  Crouch had only 77% time on ground last season compared too Kelly who had 85% so if he can increase his TOG he is almost a certainty to score 110+. Crouch averaged 125 after his bye and I can’t see why he wouldn’t take that form into next season.

Kelly positives: scored 19 goals last season compared too Crouch’s 7 meaning he is more of a scoring threat which in turn means more points. He has a much better bye in terms of supercoach which is a very big deal as if I take Crouch it means 4 premium mids out in round 14. Kelly also had a more consistent year overall whereas Crouch was only elite for half a season. Kelly seems to have a slightly higher ceiling than crouch as well.

Verdict: Although Crouch averaged 3-4 more possesions each game Kelly makes that up quite easily with him scoring a goal in pretty much every game. Crouch has the potential too score more points next season as Dusty, Danger, Titch and Fyfe as well as Kelly all played 85% game time whereas Crouch only played 77%. If Crouch can up his TOG% by 10% which doesn’t seem too unreasonable he could get an extra few possessions and therefore get another 5-10 points making me lean towards Crouch as he is cheaper and in my opinion has more of a chance of going 120+ next season compared too Kelly.

If Crouch averages an extra 5 points per game up until his bye than Kelly does it means that he will be up 70 points and I feel as though that 70 points can be covered if I manage other lines well enough and make sure I don’t get any other round 14 premium mids before round 14.

If anyone can enlighten me on why Crouch has a significantly lower amount of time on ground than most of the elite mids that would be great as that is the main reason I am putting him in my team over Kelly.