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General sports discussion => AFL => Topic started by: jvalles69 on April 29, 2019, 01:58:10 PM

Title: Brownlow 2019
Post by: jvalles69 on April 29, 2019, 01:58:10 PM
Thoughts on this season Brownlow?  I got Neale at $51 and Cripps at $13 at the start of the season and have them currently top 2 after 6 rounds.  Will be monitoring contested possessions a lot this season as the past 10 or so winners have been top 3 in CP's for the season.  Mainly looking at value right now with Boak and Rocky at decent odds.  Will be going much harder on single game voting right before Brownlow night as this is where I made most of my profits over the past 2 years.

Leaderboard at the end of round 5:

Neale 10
Cripps 9
Sloane/Treloar/Kelly/Rockliff 8
Bont/Danger 7

 

Title: Re: Brownlow 2019
Post by: crowls on April 29, 2019, 02:02:09 PM
Neale at 51 is a blinder of a bet jv.   No interest in Gawn or Grundy scoring well under the 6.6.6 regime.   Maybe we go back to the gary dempsey, peter moore days in voting?
Title: Re: Brownlow 2019
Post by: jvalles69 on May 12, 2019, 11:23:07 PM
So after round 8 Tim Kelly has taken the lead by a couple of votes, paying $13 on Beteasy.  I'd back Gaff at $21 Beteasy too as he's starting to rack up the votes.
Title: Re: Brownlow 2019
Post by: fanTCfool on May 12, 2019, 11:25:14 PM
Keep thinking Gaff is ineligible because of the suspension  ::)
Title: Re: Brownlow 2019
Post by: jvalles69 on May 13, 2019, 06:03:16 PM
I like Oliver as a smokey too at $34, currently 4th in the comp for CP's and if Demons can get on a roll, he's as good a chance as an this year.
Title: Re: Brownlow 2019
Post by: fanTCfool on May 18, 2019, 04:35:33 PM
3 more for Lachie Neale
Title: Re: Brownlow 2019
Post by: jvalles69 on May 18, 2019, 11:34:04 PM
3 more for Lachie Neale

Yep, prob puts him in the lead.
Title: Re: Brownlow 2019
Post by: WhatMate on May 19, 2019, 09:18:39 PM
Got Whitfield each way $34/9.20 on UBET just before they suspended their markets
Title: Re: Brownlow 2019
Post by: jvalles69 on May 21, 2019, 12:35:43 PM
Leaderboard

Neale 15
T. Kelly 14
Sloane/Rockliff/Cripps/Treloar 12
Merrett/Fyfe/Boak/Gaff 11
Danger 10
Title: Re: Brownlow 2019
Post by: fanTCfool on May 21, 2019, 01:27:51 PM
I've got

Neale 15
Kelly 14
Boak 11
Whitfield, Ablett, Bontempelli 10
Fyfe, Merrett, Grundy 9

others 8 and below
Title: Re: Brownlow 2019
Post by: jvalles69 on June 12, 2019, 03:22:47 PM
My current leader board post round 12

T. Kelly – 20
Neale – 18
Fyfe – 17
Danger – 16
Cripps – 15
Boak – 14
Gaff/Treloar – 13
Sloane/Conigs/Rocky – 12
Title: Re: Brownlow 2019
Post by: SilverLion on July 14, 2019, 11:38:28 AM
Feels like it's gunna be a close year in the Brownlow. Hasn't been a Titch, Martin, Danger, Fyfe type standout this year.

If I were to guess (haven't been keeping a proper tally), I'd say Fyfe, TKelly and Neale would be Top 3 currently, but honestly who knows ;D.
Title: Re: Brownlow 2019
Post by: jvalles69 on July 15, 2019, 11:57:31 AM
Feels like it's gunna be a close year in the Brownlow. Hasn't been a Titch, Martin, Danger, Fyfe type standout this year.

If I were to guess (haven't been keeping a proper tally), I'd say Fyfe, TKelly and Neale would be Top 3 currently, but honestly who knows ;D.

Haven't got my count on me, but you're pretty much spot on.  Fyfe took the lead in my count yesterday ahead of Kelly and Neale.
Title: Re: Brownlow 2019
Post by: jvalles69 on July 22, 2019, 04:25:13 PM
I've got Zerrett storming up the charts, I'm not saying he's going to win, but if you play it smart you might be able to get a decent cashout or use a bonus bet on him.  Can get him anywhere between $51-$81.
Title: Re: Brownlow 2019
Post by: jvalles69 on July 25, 2019, 03:02:34 PM
I've got Zerrett storming up the charts, I'm not saying he's going to win, but if you play it smart you might be able to get a decent cashout or use a bonus bet on him.  Can get him anywhere between $51-$81.

Anyone get on?  Odds have come in fairly significantly in a few days.  I got bet365 @ $61 and now it's $46 and on Neds at $81 and it's now $51.
Title: Re: Brownlow 2019
Post by: Rusty00 on July 25, 2019, 08:26:46 PM
I've got Zerrett storming up the charts, I'm not saying he's going to win, but if you play it smart you might be able to get a decent cashout or use a bonus bet on him.  Can get him anywhere between $51-$81.

Anyone get on?  Odds have come in fairly significantly in a few days.  I got bet365 @ $61 and now it's $46 and on Neds at $81 and it's now $51.
Yeah I jumped on at $61 on Bet365.
Title: Re: Brownlow 2019
Post by: jvalles69 on July 25, 2019, 10:58:30 PM
I've got Zerrett storming up the charts, I'm not saying he's going to win, but if you play it smart you might be able to get a decent cashout or use a bonus bet on him.  Can get him anywhere between $51-$81.

Anyone get on?  Odds have come in fairly significantly in a few days.  I got bet365 @ $61 and now it's $46 and on Neds at $81 and it's now $51.
Yeah I jumped on at $61 on Bet365.

Nice one, hopefully a big game against the Sun's this week so we're looking at a nice cash out.
Title: Re: Brownlow 2019
Post by: Rusty00 on July 26, 2019, 09:41:46 AM
I've got Zerrett storming up the charts, I'm not saying he's going to win, but if you play it smart you might be able to get a decent cashout or use a bonus bet on him.  Can get him anywhere between $51-$81.

Anyone get on?  Odds have come in fairly significantly in a few days.  I got bet365 @ $61 and now it's $46 and on Neds at $81 and it's now $51.
Yeah I jumped on at $61 on Bet365.

Nice one, hopefully a big game against the Sun's this week so we're looking at a nice cash out.
The problem will be (like you mentioned about Boak) is that he doesn't get enough media attention as a Brownlow contender to help with his price. For example I've seen a number of "predicted counts" that still have Boak in or near the Top 5, yet his price doesn't reflect that.
Title: Re: Brownlow 2019
Post by: jvalles69 on July 26, 2019, 11:31:14 AM
I've got Zerrett storming up the charts, I'm not saying he's going to win, but if you play it smart you might be able to get a decent cashout or use a bonus bet on him.  Can get him anywhere between $51-$81.

Anyone get on?  Odds have come in fairly significantly in a few days.  I got bet365 @ $61 and now it's $46 and on Neds at $81 and it's now $51.
Yeah I jumped on at $61 on Bet365.

Nice one, hopefully a big game against the Sun's this week so we're looking at a nice cash out.
The problem will be (like you mentioned about Boak) is that he doesn't get enough media attention as a Brownlow contender to help with his price. For example I've seen a number of "predicted counts" that still have Boak in or near the Top 5, yet his price doesn't reflect that.

The bookies do catch on though to some extent, but yeah, being so open this year it's harder, need a few BOG's to help out.  I've cashed out my Tim Kelly bet cos in reality I can't see him winning, made $100 profit which I was happy to reinvest into Zerrett.  I fell Kelly might be that guy this season who is hyped, but has not history of polling well like Robbie Gray and Goldy a few years back.  In saying that I do have him polling well and it's not uncommon for a 2nd or 3rd best player on a top team wins the medal like Simon Black and Acker on the Lions when Voss was the #1 stud.
Title: Re: Brownlow 2019
Post by: jvalles69 on July 26, 2019, 11:36:50 AM
Shame that there aren't more guys here doing their counts like in the past, good to get an idea on votes.
Title: Re: Brownlow 2019
Post by: RaisyDaisy on July 26, 2019, 05:04:46 PM
TK polled 13 votes in his debut season

I wouldn't be worried about him not polling
Title: Re: Brownlow 2019
Post by: fanTCfool on July 26, 2019, 05:25:32 PM
T. Kelly 22
L. Neale 20
Z. Merrett 19
B. Grundy 18
N. Fyfe 17
L. Shuey 16
T. Boak 16
M. Bontempelli 16
D. Zorko 15
D. Martin 15
P. Dangerfield 15
M. Gawn 14

Others 13 and below
Title: Re: Brownlow 2019
Post by: jvalles69 on August 04, 2019, 07:33:42 PM


Ok, my leaderboard after round 20.

Fyfe 27
Neale 26
T. Kelly 23
Merrett 22
Treloar 21
Dangerfield 21
Zorko 20
Macrae 20
D. Martin 20
Boak 19
Grundy 19
Cripps 18
Bontempelli 18
Yeo 17
Shuey 17
B. Crouch 17
Coniglio 17
Title: Re: Brownlow 2019
Post by: fanTCfool on August 12, 2019, 11:11:00 PM
3 more for Fyfe, he takes the outright lead in my count.
Title: Re: Brownlow 2019
Post by: Big Mac on August 13, 2019, 07:50:17 AM
$3.25 fav now
Title: Re: Brownlow 2019
Post by: Rusty00 on August 13, 2019, 08:28:47 AM
I got on Fyfe at $7 a few weeks ago when he missed that game through injury.

Hopefully a couple more 3 vote games to finish off the year!
Title: Re: Brownlow 2019
Post by: jvalles69 on August 13, 2019, 10:15:20 AM
I got on Fyfe at $7 a few weeks ago when he missed that game through injury.

Hopefully a couple more 3 vote games to finish off the year!

Yep, I got him at $6.50 still before this round.  Not sure if I should cash out my Neale bet...still 2 round to go, but up against Geelong and Tigers.  Cash out is round $350, win would be 2K.  ???
Title: Re: Brownlow 2019
Post by: Rusty00 on August 13, 2019, 12:19:37 PM
I got on Fyfe at $7 a few weeks ago when he missed that game through injury.

Hopefully a couple more 3 vote games to finish off the year!

Yep, I got him at $6.50 still before this round.  Not sure if I should cash out my Neale bet...still 2 round to go, but up against Geelong and Tigers.  Cash out is round $350, win would be 2K.  ???
I read somewhere during the week that gives Neale no chance of winning, but that was just 1 person's opinion. The good thing about playing Geelong and Richmond is that he probably won't get tagged either week ???
Title: Re: Brownlow 2019
Post by: jvalles69 on August 13, 2019, 03:45:38 PM
I got on Fyfe at $7 a few weeks ago when he missed that game through injury.

Hopefully a couple more 3 vote games to finish off the year!

Yep, I got him at $6.50 still before this round.  Not sure if I should cash out my Neale bet...still 2 round to go, but up against Geelong and Tigers.  Cash out is round $350, win would be 2K.  ???
I read somewhere during the week that gives Neale no chance of winning, but that was just 1 person's opinion. The good thing about playing Geelong and Richmond is that he probably won't get tagged either week ???

I just read that too, it was that Wolf tipster for Beteasy.  If Neale gets 2 BOG's then he can win, Wolf doesn't have Neale ranked in his top 5, most people I have seen have him top 2.  Danger is a bit of a Danger, pardon the pun.

The fact that the past 10 or so winners have come from the top 3 players in contested possessions leads me to believe it will be Fyfe or Neale who wins.

CP's

1. Oliver (319) - Dees have been beyond garbage, no chance
2. Fyfe (315) - broke into the top 3 this week and has put Freo on his back, out of the finals race though so will see what happens
3. Cunnington (313) - workhorse, but doesn't stand out enough
4. Neale (313) - as good a chance as any to win, needs to come home strong
5. Cripps (304) - Has had some quiet patches and can't handle a tag, plus Blues
6. Boak (279) - too far behind and Port too up and down, doesn't stand out as much as Cripps and Fyfe for lower end teams
Title: Re: Brownlow 2019
Post by: fanTCfool on August 19, 2019, 08:44:44 PM
Nothing for Fyfe this weekend, Dusty adds another 3 and takes a 1 vote lead in my count.
Title: Re: Brownlow 2019
Post by: fanTCfool on August 19, 2019, 08:50:50 PM
Nothing for Fyfe this weekend, Dusty adds another 3 and takes a 1 vote lead in my count.

I forgot that Dusty is ineligble, so Fyfe technically holds the lead in front of Tim Kelly.
Title: Re: Brownlow 2019
Post by: Rusty00 on August 20, 2019, 08:31:14 AM
Nothing for Fyfe this weekend, Dusty adds another 3 and takes a 1 vote lead in my count.

I forgot that Dusty is ineligble, so Fyfe technically holds the lead in front of Tim Kelly.
How far behind do you have Neale?
Title: Re: Brownlow 2019
Post by: fanTCfool on August 20, 2019, 09:06:34 AM
Nothing for Fyfe this weekend, Dusty adds another 3 and takes a 1 vote lead in my count.

I forgot that Dusty is ineligble, so Fyfe technically holds the lead in front of Tim Kelly.
How far behind do you have Neale?

I have Neale tied with Tim Kelly on 22, 1 vote behind Fyfe. The polling for both Neale and Kelly has completely dried up.
For what it's worth, the 'consensus' leaderboard on the site I am using has Fyfe 25.60 and Neale 21.80. Danger in the middle there with 24.20.
Title: Re: Brownlow 2019
Post by: jvalles69 on August 26, 2019, 01:09:33 PM
My final count has Fyfe, Danger and Neale all locked on 30 votes.  :o  How can I cash out any of those lol!

Bont is my pick this season to not poll as well as everybody thinks.
Title: Re: Brownlow 2019
Post by: RaisyDaisy on August 26, 2019, 01:44:22 PM
Don't think I will be betting on the winner this year - too many guys who are a real chance and it's too close to pick

That said, if i had to pick a winner I think Danger probably gets up

Will wait for more markets to open to try and find some real value
Title: Re: Brownlow 2019
Post by: jvalles69 on August 26, 2019, 03:30:48 PM
Winners and contested possessions.

2018 Mitchell 2nd in CP's
2017 Dusty 2nd in CP's
2016 Danger 2nd in CP's
2015 Fyfe 3rd in CP's
2014 Priddis 3rd in CP's
2013 Ablett 3rd in CP's
2012 Mitchell/Cotchin 7th/19th (Jobe was 4th)
2011 Swan 6th in CP's
2010 Judd 5th in CP's

Seems to be no CP numbers prior to 2010, Ablett won in 2009. Seems like it's more of a factor since 2013.

2019
1. Oliver 359
2. Neale 355
3. Fyfe 351
9. Danger 302
Title: Re: Brownlow 2019
Post by: Grazz on August 26, 2019, 04:56:26 PM
Interesting thread.
Im kinda with RD, it's a bit to open for me.
Maybe a little flutter I don't know.
Title: Re: Brownlow 2019
Post by: fanTCfool on August 26, 2019, 09:08:45 PM
Difficult to pick the winner, here's my top 3 for each team for those interested in team votes. Interested to see how other team votes look in comparison!

Adelaide
Matt Crouch 14
Brad Crouch 10
Rory Sloane 7

Brisbane
Lachie Neale 25
Dayne Zorko 19
Jarryd Lyons 15

Carlton
Patrick Cripps 17
Marc Murphy 7
Ed Curnow 5
Nic Newman 5

Collingwood
Brodie Grundy 22
Scott Pendlebury 18
Adam Treloar 16

Essendon
Zach Merrett 21
Dylan Shiel 8
Dyson Heppell 7

Fremantle
Nat Fyfe 23
Michael Walters 15
David Mundy 7

Gold Coast
Brayden Fiorini 7
David Swallow 5
Jarrod Harbrow 2
Touk Miller 2
Anthony Miles 2

Geelong
Patrick Dangerfield 24
Tim Kelly 22
Gary Ablett 14

GWS
Tim Taranto 15
Stephen Coniglio 13
Jeremy Cameron 13

Hawthorn
James Worpel 14
Jaeger O'Meara 10
James Sicily 9

Melbourne
Max Gawn 17
Clayton Oliver 8
Tom McDonald 5

North Melbourne
Shaun Higgins 16
Ben Cunnington 11
Jack Ziebell 10

Port
Travis Boak 18
Robbie Gray 10
Justin Westhoff 7
Ollie Wines 7

Richmond
Dustin Martin 24
Bachar Houli 12
Dion Prestia 11

St. Kilda
Jack Billings 10
Jade Gresham 7
Rowan Marshall 6
Seb Ross 6

Sydney
Luke Parker 12
Josh P. Kennedy 10
Isaac Heeney 9

Western Bulldogs
Marcus Bontempelli 24
Jack Macrae 19
Josh Dunkley 16

West Coast
Luke Shuey 17
Elliot Yeo 15
Andrew Gaff 13
Title: Re: Brownlow 2019
Post by: jvalles69 on August 27, 2019, 10:10:50 AM
All I can say is your count is the only one I've seen that is the most different to mine, I've seen a few which are quite similar to mine with maybe 1 or 2 differences in team count leader, there are 10 differences between ours.  :o
Title: Re: Brownlow 2019
Post by: fanTCfool on August 27, 2019, 11:12:15 AM
Show us your count!  ;)
Title: Re: Brownlow 2019
Post by: jvalles69 on August 27, 2019, 11:21:45 AM
Show us your count!  ;)

At work so I can't give you an accurate count, not trying to be secretive lol, just no access! :P
Title: Re: Brownlow 2019
Post by: EA100 on August 27, 2019, 11:33:23 AM
I've got
Danger - 27
Fyfe - 25
Grundy - 25
Neale - 23
Merrett - 22
Bontempelli - 22
Kelly - 22
Martin - 22
Treloar - 21
Macrae - 20
Cripps - 19

But i still need to go over a fair few games.. Would be interesting to see how some of you guys have polled particular games that i had a hard time doing.
Title: Re: Brownlow 2019
Post by: jvalles69 on August 27, 2019, 12:51:52 PM
Would be interesting to see how some of you guys have polled particular games that i had a hard time doing.

This is where the money is, betting on the 3 vote getters, I "bold" the players who I think lock in 3 votes 99% and bet if they are paying over $1.50.  Then I have sneaky bets on markets that don't match my 3 votes, can some times get odds on guys to poll 3 votes up to $15 which is the biggest I've hit on, quite a few around the $5-$9 mark.
Title: Re: Brownlow 2019
Post by: EA100 on August 27, 2019, 01:13:30 PM
Would be interesting to see how some of you guys have polled particular games that i had a hard time doing.

This is where the money is, betting on the 3 vote getters, I "bold" the players who I think lock in 3 votes 99% and bet if they are paying over $1.50.  Then I have sneaky bets on markets that don't match my 3 votes, can some times get odds on guys to poll 3 votes up to $15 which is the biggest I've hit on, quite a few around the $5-$9 mark.

Last year was my first time actually doing it for the sake of trying to find some value in the markets, and from memory I think there was some decent value in the one for playing to poll a vote.
Title: Re: Brownlow 2019
Post by: jvalles69 on August 27, 2019, 01:33:34 PM
Would be interesting to see how some of you guys have polled particular games that i had a hard time doing.

This is where the money is, betting on the 3 vote getters, I "bold" the players who I think lock in 3 votes 99% and bet if they are paying over $1.50.  Then I have sneaky bets on markets that don't match my 3 votes, can some times get odds on guys to poll 3 votes up to $15 which is the biggest I've hit on, quite a few around the $5-$9 mark.

Last year was my first time actually doing it for the sake of trying to find some value in the markets, and from memory I think there was some decent value in the one for playing to poll a vote.

I didn't look to hard at that market, I just remember finding so much value the single games market 2 years ago so focused on that.  Handicap is usually ok too.
Title: Re: Brownlow 2019
Post by: jvalles69 on August 27, 2019, 08:35:24 PM
As requested

Adelaide
Brad Crouch 17
Matt Crouch 16
Sloane 14

Brisbane
Lachie Neale 30
Dayne Zorko 23
Jarryd Lyons 12

Carlton
Patrick Cripps 20
Marc Murphy 8
Ed Curnow 7

Collingwood
Adam Treloar 23
Brodie Grundy 22
Scott Pendlebury 13

Essendon
Zach Merrett 23
Dylan Shiel 7
Dyson Heppell 7

Fremantle
Nat Fyfe 30
Michael Walters 16
David Mundy 9

Gold Coast
Touk Miller 7
David Swallow 6
Fiorini 5

Geelong
Patrick Dangerfield 30
Tim Kelly 23
Duncan 16

GWS
Stephen Coniglio 17
Taranto 15
Kelly 14

Hawthorn
James Worpel 10
Henderson/O'Meara 9
James Sicily 8

Melbourne
Max Gawn 17
Clayton Oliver 16
Tom McDonald 5

North Melbourne
Ziebell 15
Higgins 14
Brown 10

Port
Travis Boak 19
Rockliff 13
R. Gray 8

Richmond
Dustin Martin 23
Dion Prestia 16
Houli 6

St. Kilda
Ross 12
Billings 9
Steele/Gresham 6

Sydney
Josh P. Kennedy 18
Parker 13
Lloyd/Heeney 9

Western Bulldogs
Macrae 25
Bont 21
Dunkley 19

West Coast
Yeo 22
Shuey 17
Gaff 16
Title: Re: Brownlow 2019
Post by: Big Mac on August 27, 2019, 09:34:05 PM
Would I be right in saying you're normally a little biased towards the guns JV

Great effort doing this every year though  :)
Title: Re: Brownlow 2019
Post by: jvalles69 on August 27, 2019, 11:36:58 PM
Would I be right in saying you're normally a little biased towards the guns JV

Great effort doing this every year though  :)

Mate, I'm as biased as the umpires are.  ;)  I adjust each year based on the actual poll, this year I focused on contested possessions, next year I'll add in clearances.
Title: Re: Brownlow 2019
Post by: jvalles69 on August 29, 2019, 12:12:38 PM
I collated all the counts I could find including the guys posting in here. The "I" signifies how many counts had that player coming in first.

ADE
Mrouch IIII
Brouch II
Sloane I

BRI
Neale

CAR
Cripps

COL
Treloar IIII
Grundy III
Pendlebury

ESS
Merrett

FRE
Fyfe

GC
Fiorini IIII
Miller I
Swallow I

GEE
Danger



GWS
Taranto II
Whitfield II
Coniglio III

HAW
Worpel

MEL
Gawn

NM
Ziebell I
Higgins IIIII
Cunnington I

POR
Boak

RIC
Dusty

STK
Billings IIIII
Ross I

SYD
JPK I
Parker IIIIII


WB
Bont III
Macrae IIII

WC
Yeo I
Gaff III
Shuey III





Title: Re: Brownlow 2019
Post by: fanTCfool on August 29, 2019, 12:27:03 PM
Would I be right in saying you're normally a little biased towards the guns JV

Great effort doing this every year though  :)

Mate, I'm as biased as the umpires are.  ;)  I adjust each year based on the actual poll, this year I focused on contested possessions, next year I'll add in clearances.

Heh, take about 8-10 off each in JV's count and you'll usually end up bang on  ;)
Title: Re: Brownlow 2019
Post by: jvalles69 on August 29, 2019, 02:04:03 PM
Would I be right in saying you're normally a little biased towards the guns JV

Great effort doing this every year though  :)

Mate, I'm as biased as the umpires are.  ;)  I adjust each year based on the actual poll, this year I focused on contested possessions, next year I'll add in clearances.

Heh, take about 8-10 off each in JV's count and you'll usually end up bang on  ;)

Winners gone 28-35 the past 3 years though.  ;)
Title: Re: Brownlow 2019
Post by: shaker on August 29, 2019, 03:38:39 PM
Bont's year me thinks  ;)
Title: Re: Brownlow 2019
Post by: jvalles69 on September 04, 2019, 02:40:36 PM
More research, make of it what you will.  ???

(https://i.imgur.com/CMYyE3G.png)

(https://i.imgur.com/AVVxhni.png)

Edit: Original had SC Totals, edited to show averages.