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Author Topic: The Points vs the War Chest  (Read 778 times)
Mat0369
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#shirleytempledidthis

« on: May 02, 2016, 01:58:17 PM »

So it's coming to that point of the year where we are starting to trade aggressively to finish our teams as quickly as possible. Our rookies are starting to peak in price and we are getting a new crop of guys at the moment which serve two purposes, cover and cash. This is the group we have in the coming two weeks

Round 7

Cox - provides ruck coverage with the DPP and has a BE of -73

Currie - like Cox provides ruck coverage, no DPP which is a downside and slightly pricier. Probably has better job security and will likely have a higher floor.

Howard - Lobbe out for an extended time means he is now a first ruck, however can only be picked as a forward.

Tucker - Cheap defender that could have solid job security in a rebuilding Freo side. The poor score last week may put him down the pecking order for a few of us.

Sam Grimley - See Cox but more expensive and may struggle in an Essendon team that is poor.

Josh Smith - The pick of the bunch this week, two really solid scores, a mid where the rookies are thin and dirt cheap

Round 8

Petracca - Probably the rookie most were keen on heading into the year, he got through his first game and flashed, has DPP and is very cheap. Most will want to get him in at some stage

Keays - Job security the issue with Beams to come back but posted a solid score in his first game against one of the best teams in the comp.

Polkinghorne - With rookies thin in the midfield and guys topping out he will be another to consider, but certainly not on the level of Petracca.

Blakely - He should start to see more time in the 22 with the direction Freo are headed this year. I didn't get a chance to watch the Crows game but from what I gather in the under 18's he was a contested ball winner and with Fyfe out for the year he might get short spurts in the midfield.


With so many rookies available this week, and Petracca almost a lock next week as a downgrade option, this brings up the problem. Is it worth doing three downgrades over the next two weeks to the one upgrade to assemble 450k in cash for upgrades, or do we chase the points?

Right now I am leaning towards the double downgrade this week, that will give me 700k in the bank which is huge. That means next week I can grab Petracca which gives me another 100k and I can go on an upgrade frenzy prior to the first lot of byes. However this also means I will fall behind in the points total even further. The problem will be is where do we see the cash generation coming from in the next 4 weeks? I think the other key to the double downgrade this week is it allows me to get some important coverage in the rucks. That way if Goldy or Mummy are a late out I don't have to go the panic trade since I will be getting a fat 0 otherwise.

What is everyone else thinking? Cash or points?
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RaisyDaisy
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« Reply #1 on: May 02, 2016, 03:33:05 PM »

There's been a bit of discussion about this in the rookie thread, but I think this weeks rookies means I need to forfeit doing an upgrade and missing points (which I hate to do!) and go with Smith and Cox

Having Grimley at R3 means I can swing the two which could be useful

I'd probably have close to 500k in the kitty after doing the double down this week, and then next week Keays would be the one on my radar

I'm thinking it could be 3 down first then 3 up over the next 3 rounds. Double down, down/up and up/up

I'll have a look into this when I get the time
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Mat0369
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#shirleytempledidthis

« Reply #2 on: May 02, 2016, 04:18:58 PM »

I'm thinking it could be 3 down first then 3 up over the next 3 rounds. Double down, down/up and up/up

I'll have a look into this when I get the time

This is what I am also thinking. You already have Petracca so Keays has to be your option there.

Matho, Cuningham, Hopper, Kennedy, Whitecross, Trengove, Mullett, Broad and Marcon are the ones that would have to be looked at as downgrade targets if they get a string of games, but the only ones that might be close are Marcon, Broad and Trengove. If a few of them or on the bubble come bye time that would be great, it's just unfortunate that we had a heap of defenders already come and go for this purpose.

I'm thinking banking the cash now could be a hell of a lot more useful then getting Matty Boyd in because come 3 weeks time I'll still hopefully have 200k in the bank and won't have to look at doing a downgrade. So my thinking is something similar to this.

I need 8 upgrades not including Wells but including Libba in that bunch. I have 21 trades remaining after doing a double downgrade and 700k in the bank. Looking at next week I'll do something like this

Round 8

Trade 20 - Downgrade - 800k remaining
Trade 19 - Upgrade - 7 premo's remaining - 600k

Round 9

Trade 18 - Upgrade - 6 remaining - 400k
Trade 17 Upgrade - 5 - 200k

Round 10

Trade 16 - Uprade - 4 remaining - 0 cash
Trade 15 - Hopeful downgrade - 100-150k

That means I can head into round 11 with 14 trades remaining, 100k in cash, Wells, Adams, Libba, Kerridge and Byrne-Jones as my rookie/mid-price guys. The downside is I'll be copping the loss in having to start Menadue and Smith this week over a premium....

I blame Robbie Gray.


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kilbluff1985
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« Reply #3 on: May 02, 2016, 04:24:10 PM »

i would do a double downgrade but Boyd is to cheap to pass up getting him and J Smith

and Rocky i will get next week with Petracca

so it's important to jump on good rookies but just as important to jump on cheap premos

buy low/sell high
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Big Mac
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SC 2016 - 1445th - 2015 - 151st - 2014 - 41st

« Reply #4 on: May 02, 2016, 10:18:32 PM »

I am ranked in the top 10k, but honestly I think bringing in Cox, Smith and Tracca over the next 2 weeks could set me up for the rest of the season. Short term points lost, but I will have ~ 920k in the bank for upgrades, and also a fair bit of cash on the bench in Wagner, M. Brown, Hewett, Oliver and McCarthy.

Basically the alternative is to get Shaw in 2 weeks earlier, save about ~60k on him and make say 100 points by playing him over someone like Tippa.
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fanTCfool
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Ice Ice Baby

« Reply #5 on: May 02, 2016, 10:39:03 PM »

I'm a little against the war chest, I'm satisfied that I've seen enough potential from blokes who haven't got a run yet to be able to pick them up along the way, rather than stock up too heavily.
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Torpedo10
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I'm confidently confused

« Reply #6 on: May 02, 2016, 10:42:43 PM »

Ranked 27k, so time to take a couple of risks.

I'd say saving trades is top of that list, so putting a couple of nest eggs aside could be well worth.
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kilbluff1985
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« Reply #7 on: May 03, 2016, 05:16:33 AM »

I'm a little against the war chest, I'm satisfied that I've seen enough potential from blokes who haven't got a run yet to be able to pick them up along the way, rather than stock up too heavily.

building the war chest is just about getting rookies now while you can as to being worried about which premo to get
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