LaHug's Captains 2016 - Round 20

[LaHug]

I've been doing this for 6 years now and asked for nothing in return. This year, I would like to share with you my fundraising efforts for Cancer Council Victoria. If you appreciate these weekly posts, please consider donating to my cause, sharing to raise awareness, or starting the conversation about health, wellbeing, and knowing your body with your family and friends. Any donation, big or small, will help immensely.
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A good top two and an amazing Roughie last week. Make sure that you read on to help you get through that first final! For those new to the forums, each week I will tell you some statistics on a player's last 3 games, their last 3 against this week's opponent, and their last 3 at this ground. I will also do a quick overview on my thoughts and have a guess at their score for this week. From all this, I'll give you my top 5 captain choices for the week. If I have the time (and they're relevant), I'll get to any requests you have too!

The facts & thoughts:

D. Martin
Last 3: 112, 103, 161 (125 avg)
Last 3 against Collingwood: 114, 126, 109 (116 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 103, 161, 127 (130 avg)

If you score 112 in an 88 point loss, you're a good pick fantasy player. Dusty has that going for him, plus a great record against the Pies and at the G. Pies didn't give up a whole lot last week but Dusty will be good. Prediction - 120

Pendlebury
Last 3: 148, 99, 101 (116 avg)
Last 3 against Richmond: 98, 94, 77 (90 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 148, 124, 83 (118 avg)

Really, really want to consider him after last week's resurgence but he's just not great against the Tigers. Add to it that GWS players didn't really score highly for an 88 point victory and it might be worth looking elsewhere. Prediction - 110

Sidebottom
Last 3: 109, 96, 110 (105 avg)
Last 3 against Richmond: 131, 95, 106 (111 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 109, 64, 84 (86 avg)

Sidebottom is pretty consistent at the moment and his nice form against the Tigers helps his cause. Prediction - 115

Adams
Last 3: 140, 103, 123 (122 avg)
Last 3 against Richmond: 101, 102, 67 (90 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 140, 74, 87 (100 avg)

Kudos to anyone that held him through all of his injury problems. Adams is killing it right now and comes up against the Tigers, a team he has relatively good form against. Prediction - 120

Treloar
Last 3: 113, 93, 121 (109 avg)
Last 3 against Richmond: 97, 92, 103 (97 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 113, 75, 127 (105 avg)

Also in decent form but Treloar hasn't been quite good enough against the Tigers to consider. Prediction - 105

J.P. Kennedy
Last 3: 156, 109, 131 (132 avg)
Last 3 against Port: 151, 120, 110 (127 avg)
Last 3 at SCG: 109, 131, 106 (115 avg)

My favourite thing about the race for the Top 4/Top 2 is that good players can't afford to coast. Every percentage point matters. That's how JPK got 156 last week and why he'll destroy the Power this week, a team he usually smashes anyway. Prediction - 140

Hannebery
Last 3: 145, 90, 78 (104 avg)
Last 3 against Port: 146, 87, 55 (96 avg)
Last 3 at SCG: 90, 78, 127 (98 avg)

Welcome back, Hanners! A huge 145 last week could be matched this week, based on his 146 against the Power in their last matchup. However, it's way too risky based on his recent form slump. Prediction - 120

Parker
Last 3: 118, 116, 111 (115 avg)
Last 3 against Port: 112, 86, 106 (101 avg)
Last 3 at SCG: 116, 111, 158 (128 avg)

This whole Sydney team just loves smashing the Power (particularly in Sydney) and Parker is not different. Expect another good week from him. Prediction - 120

T. Mitchell
Last 3: 105, 61, 109 (92 avg)
Last 3 against Port: 105, 81 (93 avg)
Last 3 at SCG: 61, 109, 62 (77 avg)

I don't like that Tom Mitchell keeps tagging people and I'm not going to make him captain until he stops. Could tag again this week so too risky. Prediction - 100

Gray
Last 3: 93, 99, 122 (105 avg)
Last 3 against Sydney: 112, 97, 121 (110 avg)
Last 3 at SCG: 112, 95, 28 (78 avg)

Pretty good against the Swans but I'm slightly afraid of a tag. Regardless, recent form says no. Prediction - 105

Gawn
Last 3: 106, 120, 102 (109 avg)
Last 3 against Hawthorn: 85, 111 (98 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 106, 100, 146 (117 avg)

Gawn's numbers all look pretty good but he wasn't great last time he played the Hawks. He'll be alright but there are plenty better this week. Prediction - 105

Lewis
Last 3: 101, 113, 106 (107 avg)
Last 3 against Melbourne: 106, 144, 111 (120 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 113, 106, 73 (97 avg)

Lewis continues to score tons every week and he loves playing the Dees. He hasn't been a huge scorer much this weekend but he's at least a safe choice. Prediction - 120

Ward
Last 3: 90, 87, 118 (98 avg)
Last 3 against Gold Coast: 91, 138, 122 (117 avg)
Last 3 at Metricon: 138, 116, 86 (113 avg)

Ward will bounce back this week. He's great against the Suns, particularly up north. Prediction - 120

Coniglio
Last 3: 107, 106, 127 (113 avg)
Last 3 against Gold Coast: 101, 96, 103 (100 avg)
Last 3 at Metricon: 96, 97, 101 (98 avg)

Pretty consistent against the Suns but nothing special. Probably gets a small boost from the Suns having no players left. Prediction - 110

Shaw
Last 3: 125, 110, 72 (102 avg)
Last 3 against Gold Coast: 132, 125, 74 (110 avg)
Last 3 at Metricon: 125, 99, 66 (97 avg)

I like to pretend it didn't happen but the Giants flogged the Tigers last week and Shaw scored 125 in the process. Gold Coast are worse (actually, probably not, but you get what I'm saying) than the Tigers and Shaw has a very good record against them. Strongly consider. Prediction - 135

Boyd
Last 3: 91, 105, 104 (100 avg)
Last 3 against North: 118, 110, 84 (104 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 91, 104, 98 (98 avg)

Boyd will surely play this week and I'd expect a ton on his return. Nowhere near worth risking though. Prediction - 105

Sloane
Last 3: 128, 76, 106 (103 avg)
Last 3 against Brisbane: 117, 68, 160 (115 avg)
Last 3 at AO: 128, 106, 139 (124 avg)

I think this is that awesome run home people were talking about. How can you have Essendon at home followed by Brisbane at home? For Sloane owners worried about him taking it easy, the Crows need a percentage boost to make the Top 4 so it's not gonna happen. Prediction - 135

Rockliff
Last 3: 76, 179, 128 (128 avg)
Last 3 against Adelaide: 140, 180, 77 (132 avg)
Last 3 at AO: 33, 140, 133 (102 avg)

I am very much hoping that Rocky and Sloane go head-to-head like the last time they played. Even if they don't, Rocky LOVES playing the Crows and will be huge. Prediction - 140

Zorko
Last 3: 85, 102, 131 (106 avg)
Last 3 against Adelaide: 121, 97, 78 (99 avg)
Last 3 at AO: 110, 121, 80 (104 avg)

Zorko was great last time these teams met and I think most of the key Lions players will bounce back from last week (in a fantasy sense... I have no faith in them being competitive). Prediction - 120

S. Martin
Last 3: 130, 111, 100 (114 avg)
Last 3 against Adelaide: 151, 136, 123 (137 avg)
Last 3 at AO: 129, 151, 81 (120 avg)

Stef Martin absolutely adores playing the Crows. 137 average in his last three against them, great in Adelaide, in awesome form, and coming off a rest. What? There's more? Sam Jacobs is injured and Martin won't even have a real opponent this week? I don't know how much faith you have in a ruck as your captain but you gotta strongly consider it. Prediction - 140

Gibbs
Last 3: 106, 131, 100 (112 avg)
Last 3 against St Kilda: 75, 81, 67 (74 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 100, 104, 104 (103 avg)

No good at all against the Saints and I don't think his form closes the gap enough. Prediction - 90

Steven
Last 3: 73, 145, 97 (105 avg)
Last 3 against Carlton: 132, 92, 62 (95 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 133, 87, 138 (119 avg)

Steven always sucks against the Roos and yet I was still shocked by last week. I just don't learn... He'll bounce back this week against the Blues but there are so many better options. Prediction - 120

Dangerfield
Last 3: 135, 118, 130 (128 avg)
Last 3 against Essendon: 86, 118, 79 (94 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 95, 143, 187 (142 avg)

If you've made it this far and read every option, you'll see I've already predicted 5 massive ones. My choice this week might come down to the weather forecast. Do you know where weather doesn't matter though? Etihad. Danger has had some huge scores under the roof this year and very easily falls under the "best mid playing Essendon" rule that has seen scores of 128, 179, 161, 158 over the last four weeks. But you have to be worried about that 86 from earlier this year... right? Lol no. The Cats want percentage and Danger will have 35 possies and a couple of goals. Prediction - 135

Selwood
Last 3: 91, 106, 128 (108 avg)
Last 3 against Essendon: 97, 118, 133 (116 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 113, 102, 132 (116 avg)

Last week was an odd one but I expect him to bounce back against the Bombers. Prediction - 125

Merrett
Last 3: 101, 130, 152 (128 avg)
Last 3 against Geelong: 127, 106, 21 (85 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 130, 126, 105 (120 avg)

This kid is having one hell of a season. He scored 127 on the Cats earlier this year and I'd expect similar this week. Prediction - 125

Neale
Last 3: 131, 124, 72 (109 avg)
Last 3 against West Coast: 79, 78, 162 (106 avg)
Last 3 at Subi: 131, 72, 128 (110 avg)

Lachie Neale has been disappointing in recent Derby's and I'm not sure what to do about him this week. Form says yes but history is shakey. Doesn't matter anyway with so many better choices. Prediction - 115

Priddis
Last 3: 102, 138, 91 (110 avg)
Last 3 against Fremantle: 110, 70, 92 (91 avg)
Last 3 at Subi: 138, 105, 103 (115 avg)

Priddis will be helped by the fact that Fremantle suck. Prediction - 110

Gaff
Last 3: 117, 76, 100 (98 avg)
Last 3 against Fremantle: 111, 69, 101 (94 avg)
Last 3 at Subi: 76, 98, 131 (102 avg)

So will Gaff. Prediction - 115

LAHUG'S ROUGHIE OF THE WEEK!

Managed to outdo my 130 from two weeks ago with a 156 last week. Looks like my Roughies are the best options going around! In this segment, I'll talk about someone that, partly because of stats and mostly because of gut feeling, I think will go huge this week. It'll usually be somebody that you wouldn't usually give the C to but, if you have him and are feeling brave, might be worth a look.

Hunter
Last 3: 85, 101, 110 (99 avg)
Last 3 against North: 133, 124, 62 (106 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 101, 90, 91 (94 avg)

With no team mates left uninjured in the midfield, Hunter needs to step up. If he does, which my gut says he will, I expect an improvement on his last two great games against North. Of course, I could be wrong... that's why it's called a Roughie. Gutsy prediction - 140

LAHUG'S POTATO FORECAST!

I'll count Ward's 90 as yet another correct call because, to be completely fair, only scoring 90 when you win by 88 points is far from premium level. Basically, I'll highlight a premium that is probably in plenty of teams but is both down on form and has some terrible history against this week's opponent. Get ready for a shocker of a score!

Hodge
Last 3: 74, 49, 77 (67 avg)
Last 3 against Melbourne: 89, 53, 108 (83 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 49, 91, 71 (70 avg)

A few weeks ago, a lot of people brought Hodge in for Ablett, anticipating his DPP. They nailed the DPP part but weren't quite right about Hodge giving premium scores. He's out of form and sucks against the Dees. Spudiction - 65

The verdict:
1.   S. Martin (140)

1.   Rockliff (140)
2.   J.P. Kennedy (140)
3.   Dangerfield (135)
4.   Sloane (135)
5.   Shaw (135)

Requests:


I've been doing this for 6 years now and asked for nothing in return. This year, I would like to share with you my fundraising efforts for Cancer Council Victoria. If you appreciate these weekly posts, please consider donating to my cause, sharing to raise awareness, or starting the conversation about health, wellbeing, and knowing your body with your family and friends. Any donation, big or small, will help immensely.
Please follow this link: https://my-own-way-2016.everydayhero.com/au/william-huggett

[LaHug]

If anyone has the following players, I'm expecting big things this week.

Def: Shaw
Mid: Rockliff, Kennedy, Dangerfield, Sloane, Selwood, Parker, Hannebery, Ward/Lewis/Hunter
Ruc: Martin
Fwd: Merrett, Martin, Zorko

[WhatMate]

One thing I am slightly nervous about is Archie Smith getting named again which could effect Martin's scoring

[LaHug]

One thing I am slightly nervous about is Archie Smith getting named again which could effect Martin's scoring

I agree. My gut says Leppa is your typical AFL coach that drops a young guy even after a great performance solely because the senior guy is available.

However, I reserve the right to change this (that next five will all shift up and Stef drop to six) if I'm wrong when teams are named.

Similarly, I will change if the Adelaide weather changes but currently it says no rain.

[Jukes]

Yeah Smith playing or not will be huge. If he misses I very well may go Stef captain - if he misses I'd strongly consider fielding Naismith over him.

Will probably just play it safe and go with Danger

[LaHug]

Yeah Smith playing or not will be huge. If he misses I very well may go Stef captain - if he misses I'd strongly consider fielding Naismith over him.

Will probably just play it safe and go with Danger

Safe is boring.

[Barra13]

I need to win this week so a different captain other than Danger may be my only hope. Really depends if Jacobs/Boyd/Suckling get up as to which captain I will go with.

[Jukes]

Yeah Smith playing or not will be huge. If he misses I very well may go Stef captain - if he misses I'd strongly consider fielding Naismith over him.

Will probably just play it safe and go with Danger

Safe is boring.

I need to be safe tho, playing a good mate in the QF and I know my teams better than his - a gap that can be closed by a few things going against me, like a captain scoring 60

[LaHug]

Yeah Smith playing or not will be huge. If he misses I very well may go Stef captain - if he misses I'd strongly consider fielding Naismith over him.

Will probably just play it safe and go with Danger

Safe is boring.

I need to be safe tho, playing a good mate in the QF and I know my teams better than his - a gap that can be closed by a few things going against me, like a captain scoring 60

Nah, fair. I base my top 5/6 order on who I think will score more, not who is safest. Safest in your situation is to match your opponent's captain (probably Danger). Safest in terms of generally safe this week would probably be Rocky, tbh, after Danger scored a disappointing 86 earlier this year. I know it's incredibly unlikely that he'd do that again but I think Rocky's record against the Crows makes him the slightly better choice.

[Bill Manspeaker]

goin with Rocky!

[nrich102]

Stef Martin looks a really juicy option this week 

[LaHug]

So unexpected!!! Definitely Rocky now.

[Dave085]

I cant go passed Danger. Rocky might have issues getting possies from the stoppages with Martin also out. While it will be rookie v rookie in the ruck youd expect that the delivery will not be as good.

[LaHug]

I cant go passed Danger. Rocky might have issues getting possies from the stoppages with Martin also out. While it will be rookie v rookie in the ruck youd expect that the delivery will not be as good.

Rocky often just finds his own ball anyway. Plus, poor ruck work will mean more tackles. But I think both will be great.