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Author Topic: End of season review - 2016 MORPHING into strategy 2017 discussion  (Read 2840 times)
Ringo
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2014 RDT Elxam m0nty medalist

« Reply #15 on: November 24, 2016, 01:50:49 PM »

Will see how close he is with Beams at 300k and Fyfe at $455k. Locks if they are both in that vicinity when prices come out,
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Gigantor
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« Reply #16 on: November 24, 2016, 01:58:37 PM »

Will see how close he is with Beams at 300k and Fyfe at $455k. Locks if they are both in that vicinity when prices come out,

I would be surprised if they are priced that low, they changed the rules for Ablett this year so he wasn't too cheap.

Its the returning suspended players that have my interest, if they are discounted too much everyone will pick them but if they don't get a discount no one will. My guess is 10%, possibly 20%, m0nty has them at 30% which i think is too high
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crowls
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2016-1484, 2015 - 564

« Reply #17 on: December 01, 2016, 02:40:51 PM »

Final Rank: 1464
Final Rank last Year: 564
Best Weekly Score (Round): R12  2667
Best Starting Pick(s): Gawn,
2016 Flop You Considered, but Avoided: Lonergan,
2016 Gun You Considered, but Overlooked: Goldstein,  went for S Martin and held him all year.

Captain Picks and missed Loopholes -   
Rd 1 Fyfe for 61 points. GAJ VC 130 but no loophole
Rd 5 Fyfe for 53 points.  Danger scored 137, Gawn 160.
Rd 6 Gawn for 96,    Selwood 138 VC no loophole
Rd 8 Gawn for 49,  Selwood VC 69  Danger scored 132

overall 11 picks over 130, 5 picks between 100-130 and 7 picks under 100 including 3 under 60.     Poor scores dragged me down overall especially early in the season.

Some bad decisions hung around like Rich.    Just could not find the right time to upgrade him and he lasted until Rd15.
Rockcliff to S Mitchell was a bad trade lost 140k on Mitchell over next 10 weeks.    Trading out Barlow was also a bad decision however I did bring in Zerrett so was an upgrade just could have done Rockliff to Zerrett and saved a trade.

This year again reinforced the Guns and Rookies approach is the right path.    Injured mid pricers bring their own risks.  Pick potential break outs is like picking a Melbourne Cup winner.  More losers than winners.   Better off waiting until they have form and pay for them through good rookie upgrades.

I have a pricing strategy/objective for each line that guides my overall selection and trade approach.   This helps keep me focussed on the EOS structure that is required.   The earlier I can reach the structure the further up the ladder I will finish.
Next year top 100 is my goal.     Get to my design team structure by Rd 11/12       Requires Prems not injured and selecting correct rookies followed by trading to next batch of rooks at right time.

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j959
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SC: 16630 DT: 4004 AF: 4951 rd20 - still meh!

« Reply #18 on: December 02, 2016, 01:52:10 PM »

Final Rank: 1464
Final Rank last Year: 564
Best Weekly Score (Round): R12  2667
Best Starting Pick(s): Gawn,
2016 Flop You Considered, but Avoided: Lonergan,
2016 Gun You Considered, but Overlooked: Goldstein,  went for S Martin and held him all year.

Captain Picks and missed Loopholes -   
Rd 1 Fyfe for 61 points. GAJ VC 130 but no loophole
Rd 5 Fyfe for 53 points.  Danger scored 137, Gawn 160.
Rd 6 Gawn for 96,    Selwood 138 VC no loophole
Rd 8 Gawn for 49,  Selwood VC 69  Danger scored 132

overall 11 picks over 130, 5 picks between 100-130 and 7 picks under 100 including 3 under 60.     Poor scores dragged me down overall especially early in the season.

Some bad decisions hung around like Rich.    Just could not find the right time to upgrade him and he lasted until Rd15.
Rockcliff to S Mitchell was a bad trade lost 140k on Mitchell over next 10 weeks.    Trading out Barlow was also a bad decision however I did bring in Zerrett so was an upgrade just could have done Rockliff to Zerrett and saved a trade.

This year again reinforced the Guns and Rookies approach is the right path.    Injured mid pricers bring their own risks.  Pick potential break outs is like picking a Melbourne Cup winner.  More losers than winners.   Better off waiting until they have form and pay for them through good rookie upgrades.

I have a pricing strategy/objective for each line that guides my overall selection and trade approach.   This helps keep me focussed on the EOS structure that is required.   The earlier I can reach the structure the further up the ladder I will finish.
Next year top 100 is my goal.     Get to my design team structure by Rd 11/12       Requires Prems not injured and selecting correct rookies followed by trading to next batch of rooks at right time.
Yep, pretty sure 'midpricer madness' is what killed my SC rank this year - pretty much confirmed for SC that 'guns'n'rookies' is the dominant strategy and that makes sense I suppose.

heh, heh - Rich is on the 'never again' list, though in saying that I went with Heater this year after having him on never again and then Shaun Higgins the year before again on a 'never again' list ...  :P   ;)

I like your line price structure/strategy - when I read that I think that would sum up my last couple of years and that my 'finalisation of team' strategy was BAD in that I didn't really have one ...  :-X   ;)

Good stuff mate - thanks for contributing to the discussion.  ;D
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Holz
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Dublin "Pride In Excellence"

« Reply #19 on: December 08, 2016, 03:55:59 PM »

at the moment i have 7 premo mid including beams at m7.

1 premo up front.
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The_Captain
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I am the captain now!

« Reply #20 on: December 08, 2016, 04:56:41 PM »

Beams at m6 for me. Swallow m7. 2 Prems up forward. 3 prems down back and 2 prems in ruck.
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djbics
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SC '14 - 865, '15 - 10331, '16 - 5407 '17 - 1483

« Reply #21 on: December 29, 2016, 01:11:35 PM »

Final Rank: 5407
Final Rank last Year: 10331
Best Weekly Score (Round): 2669 (11)
League Placings: Finals5/6, one Premiership
Best Starting Pick(s): Would probably be Daniel Wells for over-all value
Worst Starting Pick(s): Sheridan/Lonergan/B.Crouch/S.Jacobs
2016 Flop You Considered, but Avoided: Kade Kolo
2016 Gun You Considered, but Overlooked: Dangerfield  :o
Best Trade(s) (Player, Round): Corey Enright Rd 9 460k Ave 106 rest of season
Worst Trade(s) (Player, Round): Chad Wingard Rd 10
Best Lesson for Next Year: No break-out mid pricers

Two very ordinary years following from being consistently top1K hurts..... I've been too keen to chase value rather than the tried and true and have been really up and down....when it comes off it really stands out (finishing 2nd for the round in round 11 was the main highlight)..... but not having Dangerfield and Gawn all season killed me on a regular basis. 

I stuffed my starting rucks (Mumford was ok, but Jacobs had a shocker), and I panicked the first selection night as was relying on Hartley to be playing (ended up sacrificing a premium and Hartley for Lonergan and Sheridan).  I was too rigid with holding onto Sauce thinking he would turn it around, and should have cut my losses early.  Bringing Wingard in was a risk and didn't really pay off (though his 110 in RD 11 was invaluable.

So what will change in 2017? Apart from the afore-mentioned no mid-price breakouts, I think my main difference will be picking my team around my Rd 1 rookies.  Sure, I will play around with different structures prior to then, and have a decent idea on who I like, but come that first selection night I will be clearing my team and starting with the rooks first.

Still unsure if I'll start Danger (should learn from last year!), however Dangers actual direct comparison start of last season was  Nat Fyfe (most expensive player, coming off a brownlow, massive previous season, though he did come in with an injury cloud which Danger shouldn't).  And those who did have Fyfe were able to trade him when he did get injured to most other players, so negligible loss incurred.  It's just a lot of money!!

Apart from that I'll still go PODs in search of value, would be boring with the same cookie cutter teams!  One year it will all click  ;)

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