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Author Topic: 2017 Profile - Kade Kolodjasnij  (Read 930 times)
LordSneeze
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« on: December 05, 2016, 10:18:35 PM »

Player – Kade Kolodjasnij
Club – Gold Coast
Position – Defender
Price - $375,400
2015 Games/Average – 22 / 88.7
2016 Games/Average – 19 / 68.8

Injury/News Notes if required – Had Keyhole surgery at the end of 2016

Key 2015 vs 2016 Stats
There are a few stats that really jump out when determining why KK fell off the pace last year, obviously the major one is the possessions dropping from 22.2 to 17.6. The biggest worry here is that his contested possessions dropped from 6.3 to 3.7 YOY, probably the reason for the small uptick in DE% (75% to 77%). In addition even though marks increased from 5.6 to 6 his contested marks halved per game from .8 to .4. The final 2 standout stats Rebounds 50’s 4.5 to 3.1 & TOG 91.4% to 85.5% all go a long way to telling a story.
These stats show me that KK has room to improve, but it is likely going to be highly dependent on the role he plays within the team. In 2015 he played more of a halfback role, however in 2016 he was more of a Mr Fix it playing a variety of roles including Defensive tag on Smalls, Third tall and halfback roles. This sacrificed quite a bit of his productivity in a SC sense.

Scoring History
2015
120+ = 3
100-120 = 6
80-100 = 6
<80 = 8
Variance = 93

2016
120+ = 0
100-120 = 1
80-100 = 2
<80 = 16
Variance = 77

KK’s scoring history really doesn’t make for very pretty viewing after last year’s debacle. 16 scores under 80 just shows how difficult it was for anyone who picked him. He dropped in price and never got it back. What is clearly visible is that KK is not consistent with a huge variance in his ceiling and floor scoresin both years.

Draw
Gold Coast arguably have the hardest draw to start the year with 5 of last years top 8 in the first 7 rounds. In addition they have an early Bye due to the match in China.

Analysis
KK is a player that has been hyped up since he came onto the scene and while he was solid in his second year and showed signs of breaking out, but he was unable to sustain it after a change to his role.
He is very awkwardly priced at $375,400 where if you are picking him you need to pick him because you think he will become a keeper and average 95+, given an average of 85 would only return a 90k gain that really is not enough to warrant trading out and not enough points to warrant keeping.

Verdict
Do not start.
The awkward price and high variances in scores should be enough to turn you off, but when you consider the change in role and its impact on his scores; the uncertainty on where he will line up this year should be the icing on the cake.
If he turns out the be playing off half back and can maintain some level of consistency with 90+ scores whilst avoiding the 50’s I would be looking at him as a potential upgrade option after his early bye, but until he proves that he is back to 2015 production with consistency he is too big a risk with minimal reward. 
« Last Edit: December 05, 2016, 10:31:46 PM by LordSneeze » Logged
Gigantor
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« Reply #1 on: December 06, 2016, 12:07:33 AM »

Spot on with the verdict LS

If he starts well, 95-100 ave, he will be priced around 450k-480k after 8 rds, still plenty cheap for a rd 10 upgrade!

Not worth the risk starting him to save 80-100k when he could average 75-80, plus you would have to cover him during the bye.
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The_Captain
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« Reply #2 on: December 06, 2016, 12:35:22 PM »

Thanks for the great write up LS! Very well done mate
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Levi434
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« Reply #3 on: December 07, 2016, 12:22:26 AM »

375k just a little too much for my liking. I think 85 ave isn't too much to expect but as you said the cash production just not there.

Nice write-up LS :)
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crowls
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2016-1484, 2015 - 564

« Reply #4 on: December 07, 2016, 10:42:42 AM »

Great analysis of KK,  agree if they can play him as the ball clearer from the backline then we are likely to see to his scores return to mid 90's.     Risk/Reward dictates not starting him and look for upgrade if his role is stable.
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Peter
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« Reply #5 on: January 09, 2017, 05:30:53 PM »

I understand he had medical issues too, which didn't help his 2016. Watch practice matches
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LordSneeze
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« Reply #6 on: January 09, 2017, 05:38:34 PM »

I understand he had medical issues too, which didn't help his 2016. Watch practice matches
Correct, he had keyhole surgery at the end of last year. Which is another reason why I would put him in the upgrade category. Too many other stable choices in the backline to take a risk on him IMO.
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crowls
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2016-1484, 2015 - 564

« Reply #7 on: January 10, 2017, 04:07:02 PM »

Another great summary LS.   KK did me proud in 15 but a no goer until he shows some premo consistency.   And lets assume you don't start simmo and Doc together then you will be looking at one of them after the bye and if they have dropped cash and KK has performed they may be close in price in which case they would be a lock.    Unless your desperate for a POD you could not choose him.
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