Player â€“ Brodie Smith
Club â€“ Adelaide Crows
Position â€“ Defender
Price - $410,400
2015 Games/Average â€“ 19/ 76.2
2016 Games/Average â€“ 21 / 75.3
Injury/News Notes if required â€“ Concussion Magnet
Key 2015 vs 2016 Stats
There was miniscule increases in a large amount of Brodie Smiths stats from 2015 to 2016. DE% 69.8% to 73.1%, Tackles from 1.9 to 2.3, inside 50 from 3.6 to 4.5 and TOG 77.1% to 81.2% among others. The question though with Smith is not what did he do over the last 2 years, but why did he drop from 2014 production, first and foremost was a drop in overall possessions from 23 to 18 back up to 20, the biggest impact though was a disposal efficiency of 78.2% well up on the last 2 years. When you combine this with increased possessions, predominantly contested possessions, then it is fairly easy to see why he scored well. For him to be able to go back to a 90+ average he will need to continue his improvement in possessions, improve on his disposal compared to the last 2 years whilst still holding similar production in the other statistical areas.
120+ = 2
100-120 = 2
80-100 = 2
<80 = 13 (2 Sub Affected)
Variance = 128
120+ = 0
100-120 = 2
80-100 = 8
<80 = 11 (1x Injury Affected)
Variance = 89
The last 2 years have not seen a good cross-section of scores. 24 of 40 scores under 80 points is a really poor output. In 2014 Smith had a huge 6 scores over 120 and a further 3 between 100-120. Based on history it appears that these huge scores were anomalies in his scoring.
Adelaide has a tough first 2 rounds against GWS & Hawthorn, however following this they have 8 very winnable matches in a row. The R13 bye also ties in nicely with most structures.
Smith is the player that everyone wants to love, but hates when they do. He has been consistently hyped up on the back of one year where people fell in love with his huge scores and solid average. When you consider that he had 6 scores over 120 that year, but still only averaged 93.5 his lack of consistency was evident.
If you look at Smiths potential going forward there is room for improvement in possession and disposal areas, but really even if he does improve overall he will have games that will be 60 odd pushing his overall average down.
Risk not much reward
I would highly suggest staying away given Smiths ceiling doesnâ€™t appear as hig as many of the mass media have made it out to be. He was hype through the roof based on 1 year with several very high scores. The best case scenario is he goes ballistic and averages 100 at which point you can bring him in as an upgrade, without losing too many points as you start a premium who is more likely to hit that anyway. Worst case is he averages 70 and you are stuck with a player that wonâ€™t make cash, nor enough points, very much like Rich did this year, or he gets those niggly injuries or concussions and you need to trade out anyway.