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Author Topic: 2017 Profile - Brodie Grundy  (Read 676 times)
LordSneeze
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« on: January 31, 2017, 02:21:53 PM »

I know people wanted this one so here it is

Player – Brodie Grundy
Club – Collingwood
Position – Ruck
Price - $520,500
2015 Games/Average – 19/ 90.5
2016 Games/Average – 21 /95.3

Injury/News Notes if required –Nothing to Report

Stats Comparison
Grundy is your typical hyped breakout player. Right age, key player in team and shown his potential over a small sample.
The best way to look into this is to compare Grundy’s stats vs those of the Uber Prem rucks (Gawn & Goldy) and determining where the biggest differences are.

Disposals (18.4)
+3.9 & +4.6 (+2.9 & +3.2 uncontested) – So while he has ore disposals most are uncontested resulting in minimal points gains.

Disposal Efficency (63%)
-9.4% & -17.2% - Higher uncontested numbers, but much lower DE%

Clangers (4)
+1.3 & +2.1 – Another reason for the loss of points.

Hit Outs (26.1) – average of 31.3 after the byes
-16.1 & -10.4 – This is a massive difference even after the bye. Resulting in a drop in the number of HOTA that he is able to win in comparison.

Clearances (3.8)
+.8 & +.7 – While fairly small in number, the difference is fairly large over the course of a season.

The majority of the other stats are pretty much on par or offsetting each other. From these stats it is fairly clear to me that unless Grundy can significantly increase his DE% to 75% (A big ask given his history of struggling with a higher uncontested number) he will always be prone to the very poor games that will drop his average substantially. The upside for Grundy is really only going to be seen if he can increase his DE%, maintain or increase his possessions and increase his hitouts providing more HOTA potential.


Scoring History
2015

120+ = 1
100-120 = 4
80-100 = 9
<80 = 5 (1 Sub Affected)
Variance = 65

2016
120+ = 1
100-120 = 10
80-100 = 7
<80 = 3
Variance = 73

Over the 2 years Grundy has made solid improvement making strong games in the number of <100 games increasing to the 100-120 range. However he still does not have that high scoring ceiling. If you are to pick him you should be fairly confident that you will get a player consistently scoring 80-115 mark. You really need him to turn those 100 scores into the 120+ ones and while it is possible, it is a risk.

Compare the trio (+120 scores)
Grundy 2/40
Goldy 19/42
Gawn 11/35 

Draw
Collingwood really doesn’t have the best start with only 3 home games in the first 7 including tough fixtures Home to WB, Away to Sydney and Away to Geelong.

Analysis
Rucks are always a fairly unique beast, often underappreciated and taken for granted as a set and forget position. Historically you can score fairly well here and given the availability of several strong options and a multitude of breakout or comeback options then it would be amiss not to think about your structure. Grundy is an interesting option, he has potential and has shown that he can score consistently at a reasonable clip, but he hasn’t shown he has the ceiling of the top top rucks. The biggest concern is his disposal efficiency especially given his high ratio of uncontested compared to contested possessions.


Verdict
Overall, Grundy has merit if you really want to pick him, but I would not be taking it as easy as his end of last year was good so he is worth it. The possibility is being stuck with a player who could lose 10+ points per game due to not yet proving he has a high ceiling. At this stage the best option is to set and forget the 2 ubers eventhough someone might jump out the pack and challenge it’s a fairly safe strategy.

If you wanted to take a risk on the rucks my suggestions would be
Prem/Sandi/Witts providing Witts is the number 1 ruck. This combo saves 120k over a Prem/Grundy/Rook setup, provides bench cover for Sandi and gives 2 cash cows. Yes you might lose the rolling donut for a week or 2, but ultimately the cash generation should potentially offset any loss of points if you don’t take risks with the captain.

Consider, but better options
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uncleswagy
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« Reply #1 on: January 31, 2017, 08:35:20 PM »

had a goldy grundy combo originally but now swinging towards slightly cheapening my back line and going to a gawn goldy combo.

Without looking into the stats i always thought one of grundys issues was making bonehead mistakes, the clangers difference shows that but id also be curious to see his frees for: frees against ratio compared to goldy and gawn if you know them, i feel that would be a telling stat too
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LordSneeze
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« Reply #2 on: February 01, 2017, 09:13:27 AM »

had a goldy grundy combo originally but now swinging towards slightly cheapening my back line and going to a gawn goldy combo.

Without looking into the stats i always thought one of grundys issues was making bonehead mistakes, the clangers difference shows that but id also be curious to see his frees for: frees against ratio compared to goldy and gawn if you know them, i feel that would be a telling stat too

I can go get the exact figures if you want them, if I remember correctly he was .7 or so per game higher. Accounts for some of the increase in clangers, but nowhere near enough.
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uncleswagy
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« Reply #3 on: February 01, 2017, 05:50:13 PM »

had a goldy grundy combo originally but now swinging towards slightly cheapening my back line and going to a gawn goldy combo.

Without looking into the stats i always thought one of grundys issues was making bonehead mistakes, the clangers difference shows that but id also be curious to see his frees for: frees against ratio compared to goldy and gawn if you know them, i feel that would be a telling stat too

I can go get the exact figures if you want them, if I remember correctly he was .7 or so per game higher. Accounts for some of the increase in clangers, but nowhere near enough.

don't need the exact the numbers, your working hard enough as it is mate, yeah doesnt make up for it at all, will be going into this season with the gawnstein combo
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LordSneeze
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« Reply #4 on: February 02, 2017, 09:27:02 AM »

With Sandi having a preseason injury setback, I am very much leaning towards locking in Gawn and Goldy aswell.
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MC
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« Reply #5 on: February 06, 2017, 12:33:04 AM »

I'm not 100% sure on the correlation, but I'd imagine as players develop their tanks their disposal efficiency would increase? Less of the tired mistakes later in the quarters/games? Grundy might be able to gain +5 or +10% there to add some easy points
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dmac07
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« Reply #6 on: February 11, 2017, 10:16:06 AM »

The big intangible for me is 'natural improvement', which you can't measure. Many of the current best rucks werent even playing regular AFL games at his age (Gawn, Goldstein, Jacobs all took till 4th years on a list to hit 10 games).

200cm+ guys usually take much longer to physically develop strength and aerobic capacity, so you would assume this would be where his greatest devlopment would happen.

Stats wise I could see him lifting another 3 possessions a game, 1 mark a game and lifting his disposal efficiency by 5% by getting more space or being less fatigued. He is already one of the best movers around the ground for a ruckman and this should continue to improve at his age.

Sandi/Goldstein both coming into the season under injury clouds also make it easier to pick Grundy.
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uncleswagy
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« Reply #7 on: February 11, 2017, 02:15:04 PM »

The big intangible for me is 'natural improvement', which you can't measure. Many of the current best rucks werent even playing regular AFL games at his age (Gawn, Goldstein, Jacobs all took till 4th years on a list to hit 10 games).

200cm+ guys usually take much longer to physically develop strength and aerobic capacity, so you would assume this would be where his greatest devlopment would happen.

Stats wise I could see him lifting another 3 possessions a game, 1 mark a game and lifting his disposal efficiency by 5% by getting more space or being less fatigued. He is already one of the best movers around the ground for a ruckman and this should continue to improve at his age.

Sandi/Goldstein both coming into the season under injury clouds also make it easier to pick Grundy.

definitely right about the natural improvement, with other positions you can look to other players history to get an idea of natural progression but with ruckman its almost random
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