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Author Topic: Brownlow 2017  (Read 20066 times)
LordSneeze
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« Reply #465 on: September 14, 2017, 09:43:23 AM »

do most have sloane leading after rnd 5

More of a chance rd 10 (1-2 ahead). Rd 5 looks like it'll be decided by 1 vote
I'm going to bet on both and I figure ill get 1/2 minimum but should get a profit
[/quote]

Sloane is a tough pick for me as the crows have been so dominate.
There are some games he was BOG comfortably, but outside those the points could go to any of 10 players.
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Modra6
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« Reply #466 on: September 14, 2017, 11:17:28 AM »

Lordsneeze have you concluded your own count as yet that you could share?
I've accumulated a fair few counts and have done a bit of data analysis. another set would be appreciated.

Ill then post a few bets which I've found a bit of value on between 4 bookies based on the analysis.
Found a nice handicap which should go close

I do it in a notebook every year noting down directly after the match who are my top 3
It takes a bit of time after the season finishes to enter and collate normally do about 5 rounds a day once I start it, but I find it more accurate than doing it online where I could easily look at the stats and be swayed.

Im definitely seeing that my count is much closer than most others. normally you only see 8-10 players at 20 votes. I see about the same are likely to be the case, maybe slightly less as I expect some big tallys for Dusty & Danger. Then you have players like Gaff, Parker who historically poll reasonably well who just don't appear to feature often.

Yeah Gaff worries me a little. Doesn't seem like he will poll many but as you said is a historically good vote getter. That's why I also think Sloane will pick up a couple of the minor votes early on when he wasn't BOG but may have been in the mix.
The collating has taken me a fair few hours to do but at the end of the day it'll pay for itself. The more data the better!
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jvalles69
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« Reply #467 on: September 14, 2017, 01:06:10 PM »

do most have sloane leading after rnd 5

More of a chance rd 10 (1-2 ahead). Rd 5 looks like it'll be decided by 1 vote
I'm going to bet on both and I figure ill get 1/2 minimum but should get a profit

Sloane is a tough pick for me as the crows have been so dominate.
There are some games he was BOG comfortably, but outside those the points could go to any of 10 players.
[/quote]

I'm definitely more convinced he'll be leading at round 5 than round 10.  I have him 1 vote behind Dusty at round 10, gives the other's more chances of passing him.  Dusty and Danger were just warming up in those early rounds whereas Sloane was on fire, was BOG for 3 games and I would expect him to poll 1-2 votes from the last 2 games because of this.
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LordSneeze
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« Reply #468 on: September 14, 2017, 02:07:05 PM »

Have done a bit of an interesting analysis based on last years vote data

Code: [Select]
Result Count   Average Votes
Bye 18.00 #DIV/0!
L 50+ 56.00 0.13
L 30-50 51.00 0.61
L 20-30 27.00 1.00
L 10-20 28.00 1.43
L 1-10 36.00 2.06
W 1-10 36.00 3.94
W 10-20 27.00 4.67
W 20-30 28.00 4.89
W 30-50 51.00 5.39
W 50+ 56.00 5.88

From what I can see it is possible for teams to get votes in losses, but it is very very rare.

In losses greater than 50 points teams on the losing side polled votes in 10.7% of matches. 5x 1 vote (Freo & Richmond 2x each) & 1x 2 votes (Pies)
In losses between 31 & 50 points teams in the losing side teams polled in 39.2% of matches. 12x 1 vote (North 3, Richmond & Saints 2 each), 5x 2 votes (Freo & Richmond 1 each again) & 3x 3 votes (Freo x2 & Brisbane x1).
In only 8.4% of matches did a side losing by more than 30 points get 3 votes out of the possible 6 and they never got more.

Shows a very clear correlation of result to number of teams votes. Thinking it might be worth adding in 2014 & 2015 data. Add in 2017 results to see how tight my votes by team vs results are.
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quinny88
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« Reply #469 on: September 14, 2017, 04:54:01 PM »

Alright guys I'm in a work comp and need to pick the top vote getter from each club (suspension doesn't matter)

So far I've got the obvious ones but help me out with the question marks. Have no idea on a few

Essendon - Zach Merrett (Locked)
Geelong - Danger (Locked)
Gold Coast - Ablett (Locked)
Giants - Kelly (Locked)
Hawks - Tom Mitchell (Locked)
Melbourne - Oliver (Locked)
Richmond - Dustin Martin (Locked)

Adelaide - Sloane or Matt Crouch?
Brisbane - Zorko or Beams?
Carlton - Murphy or Gibbs?
Collingwood - Adams, Pendles or Treloar?
Fremantle - Fyfe or Neale?
North Melbourne - ??
Port Adelaide - Ebert, Robbie Gray or Wines?
Saints - ??
Sydney - Kennedy, Parker or Buddy?
West Coast - ??
Bulldogs - Bontempelli or Macrae?







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GoLions
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« Reply #470 on: September 14, 2017, 05:05:05 PM »

Alright guys I'm in a work comp and need to pick the top vote getter from each club (suspension doesn't matter)

So far I've got the obvious ones but help me out with the question marks. Have no idea on a few

Essendon - Zach Merrett (Locked)
Geelong - Danger (Locked)
Gold Coast - Ablett (Locked)
Giants - Kelly (Locked)
Hawks - Tom Mitchell (Locked)
Melbourne - Oliver (Locked)
Richmond - Dustin Martin (Locked)

Adelaide - Sloane or Matt Crouch?
Brisbane - Zorko or Beams?
Carlton - Murphy or Gibbs?
Collingwood - Adams, Pendles or Treloar?
Fremantle - Fyfe or Neale?
North Melbourne - ??
Port Adelaide - Ebert, Robbie Gray or Wines?
Saints - ??
Sydney - Kennedy, Parker or Buddy?
West Coast - ??
Bulldogs - Bontempelli or Macrae?
Oliver is not a lock, in fact most counts have Jones beating him comfortably :P (I would definitely put my money on Jones)

Of your other choices, I'd be going with (locks in bold):
Sloaney (lock over MCrouch by a long way)
Zorko *just* over Beams
Murphy *just* over Gibbs
Adams *just* over Treloar
Fyfe
Higgins (but beware Cunnington and Brown)
Wines (but Port I have zero confidence in cause rarely any standouts)
Billings over Ross
JPK *just* over Buddy, but could go either way
Shuey (but a bit similar to Port, not a huge amount of standouts)
Bont (also a huge lock)
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quinny88
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« Reply #471 on: September 14, 2017, 05:26:07 PM »

Alright guys I'm in a work comp and need to pick the top vote getter from each club (suspension doesn't matter)

So far I've got the obvious ones but help me out with the question marks. Have no idea on a few

Essendon - Zach Merrett (Locked)
Geelong - Danger (Locked)
Gold Coast - Ablett (Locked)
Giants - Kelly (Locked)
Hawks - Tom Mitchell (Locked)
Melbourne - Oliver (Locked)
Richmond - Dustin Martin (Locked)

Adelaide - Sloane or Matt Crouch?
Brisbane - Zorko or Beams?
Carlton - Murphy or Gibbs?
Collingwood - Adams, Pendles or Treloar?
Fremantle - Fyfe or Neale?
North Melbourne - ??
Port Adelaide - Ebert, Robbie Gray or Wines?
Saints - ??
Sydney - Kennedy, Parker or Buddy?
West Coast - ??
Bulldogs - Bontempelli or Macrae?
Oliver is not a lock, in fact most counts have Jones beating him comfortably :P (I would definitely put my money on Jones)

Of your other choices, I'd be going with (locks in bold):
Sloaney (lock over MCrouch by a long way)
Zorko *just* over Beams
Murphy *just* over Gibbs
Adams *just* over Treloar
Fyfe
Higgins (but beware Cunnington and Brown)
Wines (but Port I have zero confidence in cause rarely any standouts)
Billings over Ross
JPK *just* over Buddy, but could go either way
Shuey (but a bit similar to Port, not a huge amount of standouts)
Bont (also a huge lock)

Thanks mate, appreciate it!
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jvalles69
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« Reply #472 on: September 14, 2017, 08:36:10 PM »

Alright guys I'm in a work comp and need to pick the top vote getter from each club (suspension doesn't matter)

So far I've got the obvious ones but help me out with the question marks. Have no idea on a few

Essendon - Zach Merrett (Locked)
Geelong - Danger (Locked)
Gold Coast - Ablett (Locked)
Giants - Kelly (Locked)
Hawks - Tom Mitchell (Locked)
Melbourne - Oliver (Locked)Jones
Richmond - Dustin Martin (Locked)

Adelaide - Sloane by a fair margin or Matt Crouch?
Brisbane - Zorko or Beams?
Carlton - Murphy or Gibbs?
Collingwood - Adams, Pendles or Treloar?
Fremantle - Fyfe or Neale?
North Melbourne - ?? Coin toss between Cunnington and Higgins
Port Adelaide - Ebert, Robbie Gray or Wines?
Saints - ?? Billings
Sydney - Kennedy, Parker or Buddy?
West Coast - ?? Kennedy
Bulldogs - Bontempelli by a mile or Macrae?
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quinny88
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« Reply #473 on: September 14, 2017, 08:52:34 PM »

Thanks mate

So thereal toss ups are between
Wines/Gray
JPK/Buddy
Shuey/Kennedy
Higgins/Cunnington

$250 up for grabs here so hopefully pick the right ones!
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jvalles69
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« Reply #474 on: September 14, 2017, 10:57:29 PM »

$50 free bet...struggling to see anything with better value than Nathan Jones to lead Melbourne votes @ $8???
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kilbluff1985
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« Reply #475 on: September 15, 2017, 03:42:45 AM »

$50 free bet...struggling to see anything with better value than Nathan Jones to lead Melbourne votes @ $8???

jones/billings multi or no balls
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RaisyDaisy
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« Reply #476 on: September 15, 2017, 07:42:48 AM »

Reckon Billings could be fools gold

Besides one or two games, he never stood out as BOG or dominated for mine

Steven and Ross the best Saints I'd say
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jvalles69
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« Reply #477 on: September 15, 2017, 09:01:54 AM »

$50 free bet...struggling to see anything with better value than Nathan Jones to lead Melbourne votes @ $8???

jones/billings multi or no balls

Balls intact...bonus bet if for single bet sue only.  ;D
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LordSneeze
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« Reply #478 on: September 15, 2017, 09:37:52 AM »

Just been looking at Oliver and im starting to feel that he is going to get a lot more votes than people think including myself.

Personally I don't feel he was a standout in a lot of matches, but last year he polled in round 1 & round 9. In both those games he only had 22 & 21 possessions respectively and was not a standout. This year he was probably 4th to 5th best in a lot of matches, got a lot of contested possessions and was in and around the umpires a lot.

I feel that he is the player that will sneak in to get the 2 or 1 in a lot of the matches where he may not have been in the top 3. Could be wrong, but I think that the Melbourne votes are really really questionable this year.   
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jvalles69
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« Reply #479 on: September 15, 2017, 09:49:46 AM »

Just been looking at Oliver and im starting to feel that he is going to get a lot more votes than people think including myself.

Personally I don't feel he was a standout in a lot of matches, but last year he polled in round 1 & round 9. In both those games he only had 22 & 21 possessions respectively and was not a standout. This year he was probably 4th to 5th best in a lot of matches, got a lot of contested possessions and was in and around the umpires a lot.

I feel that he is the player that will sneak in to get the 2 or 1 in a lot of the matches where he may not have been in the top 3. Could be wrong, but I think that the Melbourne votes are really really questionable this year.

Yeah bookies have me a little scared with this one too, we all could be completely off with Oliver.  I have left Jones out in my major multi's, but have used him and Billings separately to boost a few other odds.
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