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Author Topic: Brownlow 2017  (Read 16178 times)
GoLions
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« Reply #450 on: September 11, 2017, 02:21:08 PM »

Lets discuss the 50/50 teams. who do we think we will win and how many votes u have them on (if uve done a count)?

beams/zorko
gibbs/murphy
adams/treloar/pendles
fyfe/neale
cunnington/brown/higgins
wines/gray
jpk/buddy
The only one I'd really be comfortable with there is Fyfe over Neale.

Have Zorko edging out Beams by 2 votes.
Murphy 1 vote ahead of Gibbs.
Adams 1 vote ahead of Treloar (Pendles a fair bit behind).
Fyfe easily over Neale.
Higgins a bit ahead of Brown/Cunnington, but Cunnington may poll better than I've predicted (had him as 4th/5th best player a number of times).
Have Wines over Gray but Port were a nightmare to judge, very rarely had standouts so was harder to award votes.
JPK 2 votes ahead of Buddy, but guys like Hanners and Parker may poll better than expected, which could mean less votes for JPK possibly.
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LordSneeze
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« Reply #451 on: September 11, 2017, 04:16:06 PM »

I always do my own count and will be collating it all soon.

Got a few different results to some on here, but for the most part I think im in a similar position.
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jvalles69
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« Reply #452 on: September 11, 2017, 05:50:01 PM »

Lets discuss the 50/50 teams. who do we think we will win and how many votes u have them on (if uve done a count)?

beams/zorko
gibbs/murphy
adams/treloar/pendles
fyfe/neale
cunnington/brown/higgins
wines/gray
jpk/buddy
The only one I'd really be comfortable with there is Fyfe over Neale.

Have Zorko edging out Beams by 2 votes.
Murphy 1 vote ahead of Gibbs.
Adams 1 vote ahead of Treloar (Pendles a fair bit behind).
Fyfe easily over Neale.
Higgins a bit ahead of Brown/Cunnington, but Cunnington may poll better than I've predicted (had him as 4th/5th best player a number of times).
Have Wines over Gray but Port were a nightmare to judge, very rarely had standouts so was harder to award votes.
JPK 2 votes ahead of Buddy, but guys like Hanners and Parker may poll better than expected, which could mean less votes for JPK possibly.

Zorko 6 votes over Beams
Murphy 7 votes over Gibbs
Adams 4 votes head of Treloar and 9 votes ahead of Pendles
Fyfe 3 votes over Neale (confident on this as Dockers suck so hard, but Fyfe has a good history of polling)
Higgins 7, Cunnington/Brown 6 (not a chance in hell of touching this)
Gray 16, Wingard/Wines 14 (see North)
Buddy 4 votes ahead of JPK

Zorko, Murphy, Adams and Buddy will decide if I cash in big time this year.

You can add Melbourne in there too. Jones ahead by 4 votes over Viney for me.
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LordSneeze
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« Reply #453 on: September 12, 2017, 10:46:31 AM »

After round 5

R Sloane   11
P Dangerfield   10
D Martin   9
A Treloar   8
M Duncan   7
J Cameron   7
L Shuey   7
O Wines   6
R Gray   6
J Selwood   6
T Rockliff   6
T Greene   6
M Murphy   6
T Lynch   6
D Mundy   5
T Cotchin   5
T Mitchell   5
M Bontempelli   5
M Crouch   5
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WhatMate
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« Reply #454 on: September 12, 2017, 11:10:51 PM »

Bet365 have some brownlow h2h markets that are definitely worth looking into
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jvalles69
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« Reply #455 on: September 13, 2017, 11:24:39 AM »

Bet365 have some brownlow h2h markets that are definitely worth looking into

Yet to find anywhere that can multi these.  :(
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LordSneeze
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« Reply #456 on: September 13, 2017, 04:40:29 PM »

After round 5

R Sloane   11
P Dangerfield   10
D Martin   9
A Treloar   8
M Duncan   7
J Cameron   7
L Shuey   7
O Wines   6
R Gray   6
J Selwood   6
T Rockliff   6
T Greene   6
M Murphy   6
T Lynch   6
D Mundy   5
T Cotchin   5
T Mitchell   5
M Bontempelli   5
M Crouch   5

After Round 10
D Martin   17
P Dangerfield   16
R Sloane   16
T Mitchell   12
A Treloar   11
Z Merrett   10
M Duncan   10
J Cameron   10
M Bontempelli   10
E Yeo   9
G Ablett   9
S Pendlebury   9
M Murphy   9
J Selwood   9
T Lynch   8
J Kelly   8
T Rockliff   8
M Crouch   7
T Cotchin   7
D Hannebery   7
B Brown   7
L Neale   7
JP Kennedy   7
L Shuey   7
R Gray   7
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jvalles69
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« Reply #457 on: September 13, 2017, 05:37:57 PM »

Anyone willing to post up their make or break bets, lol?  I'll try to do mine later in the week, if my tips are good I'll be laughing!

Also I have Sloane leading at round 5 and Dusty at round 10 like LS.
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kilbluff1985
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« Reply #458 on: September 14, 2017, 07:19:26 AM »

my main bet is Sloane leading after rnd 5 got him at @3.75 too Danger was fav for ages by the bookies but now Sloane is

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RaisyDaisy
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« Reply #459 on: September 14, 2017, 08:38:23 AM »

I'm really struggling to find any bets that interest me this year. Could be the first time in 10+ years that I don't put any bets on

2-1 doesn't interest me

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Modra6
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« Reply #460 on: September 14, 2017, 08:52:09 AM »

Lordsneeze have you concluded your own count as yet that you could share?
I've accumulated a fair few counts and have done a bit of data analysis. another set would be appreciated.

Ill then post a few bets which I've found a bit of value on between 4 bookies based on the analysis.
Found a nice handicap which should go close
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jvalles69
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« Reply #461 on: September 14, 2017, 09:10:36 AM »

Every year there's one player who's polling doesn't live up to the hype.  This year I'm calling Josh Kelly that player, won't be top 5.
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kilbluff1985
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« Reply #462 on: September 14, 2017, 09:30:34 AM »

Lordsneeze have you concluded your own count as yet that you could share?
I've accumulated a fair few counts and have done a bit of data analysis. another set would be appreciated.

Ill then post a few bets which I've found a bit of value on between 4 bookies based on the analysis.
Found a nice handicap which should go close


do most have sloane leading after rnd 5
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Modra6
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« Reply #463 on: September 14, 2017, 09:40:43 AM »

do most have sloane leading after rnd 5
[/quote]

More of a chance rd 10 (1-2 ahead). Rd 5 looks like it'll be decided by 1 vote
I'm going to bet on both and I figure ill get 1/2 minimum but should get a profit
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LordSneeze
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« Reply #464 on: September 14, 2017, 09:42:05 AM »

Lordsneeze have you concluded your own count as yet that you could share?
I've accumulated a fair few counts and have done a bit of data analysis. another set would be appreciated.

Ill then post a few bets which I've found a bit of value on between 4 bookies based on the analysis.
Found a nice handicap which should go close

I do it in a notebook every year noting down directly after the match who are my top 3
It takes a bit of time after the season finishes to enter and collate normally do about 5 rounds a day once I start it, but I find it more accurate than doing it online where I could easily look at the stats and be swayed.

Im definitely seeing that my count is much closer than most others. normally you only see 8-10 players at 20 votes. I see about the same are likely to be the case, maybe slightly less as I expect some big tallys for Dusty & Danger. Then you have players like Gaff, Parker who historically poll reasonably well who just don't appear to feature often.
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