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Author Topic: Rory Sloane  (Read 7870 times)
Holz
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Dublin "Pride In Excellence"

« Reply #30 on: May 31, 2017, 09:14:29 AM »

Sloane versus Wines

105 + 105 + 105 = 315

vs

125 + 125 + 0 = 250

Then up to round 17 when Sloane bottoms out again, 105 x 3 = 315 versus 125 x 3 = 375

Net result = Wines +5

its simple dont trade in Sloane if he gets you a donut.

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GCSkiwi
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« Reply #31 on: May 31, 2017, 09:31:40 AM »

Sloane versus Wines

105 + 105 + 105 = 315

vs

125 + 125 + 0 = 250

Then up to round 17 when Sloane bottoms out again, 105 x 3 = 315 versus 125 x 3 = 375

Net result = Wines +5

its simple dont trade in Sloane if he gets you a donut.

Sorry but it's really not that simple Holz. It's easy for me, barring unforeseen restings (which I'll have 2 trades to deal with anyway, and nothing I can do about it now) I'm fine for the byes. But taking price, trades, and points over time into consideration, I reckon Sloane wins just about 99% of the time.

Wines is a good test case because they don't have the bye. That's a scenario where you could be better off. Still, for +5 you're a trade and money worse off in all likelihood, still worth those 5 points? And these are all assuming Sloane scores at his average, but as dc says,
 
you take the further risk that he pulls out a 160 in rd. 14. This costs both points and prevents him from coming back down in price.
It's not even just round 14, if Sloane has a big game pretty much any stage between now and round 17, you're most likely points and money worse off, regardless of who you bring in (even eg Wines). Sloane is 5/10 games over 130. Worth the risk?
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Holz
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Dublin "Pride In Excellence"

« Reply #32 on: May 31, 2017, 10:00:16 AM »

Sloane versus Wines

105 + 105 + 105 = 315

vs

125 + 125 + 0 = 250

Then up to round 17 when Sloane bottoms out again, 105 x 3 = 315 versus 125 x 3 = 375

Net result = Wines +5

its simple dont trade in Sloane if he gets you a donut.

Sorry but it's really not that simple Holz. It's easy for me, barring unforeseen restings (which I'll have 2 trades to deal with anyway, and nothing I can do about it now) I'm fine for the byes. But taking price, trades, and points over time into consideration, I reckon Sloane wins just about 99% of the time.

Wines is a good test case because they don't have the bye. That's a scenario where you could be better off. Still, for +5 you're a trade and money worse off in all likelihood, still worth those 5 points? And these are all assuming Sloane scores at his average, but as dc says,
 
you take the further risk that he pulls out a 160 in rd. 14. This costs both points and prevents him from coming back down in price.
It's not even just round 14, if Sloane has a big game pretty much any stage between now and round 17, you're most likely points and money worse off, regardless of who you bring in (even eg Wines). Sloane is 5/10 games over 130. Worth the risk?

I reckon it is though. Sloane is great but he is not that good (like danger last year) that there isnt any other options.

Joel Selwood is a good option at 547k if you have issues with Sloane round 13 bye
Tom Rockliff should be back next week and pretty much same average and price as Sloane


So essentially Sloane i rate as the number 1 premo pick up this week, bit if it causes a donut there are other options.

This is for Overall players, trying to win league is a whole other thing.
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GCSkiwi
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« Reply #33 on: May 31, 2017, 10:13:59 AM »

I reckon it is though. Sloane is great but he is not that good (like danger last year) that there isnt any other options.

Joel Selwood is a good option at 547k if you have issues with Sloane round 13 bye
Tom Rockliff should be back next week and pretty much same average and price as Sloane


So essentially Sloane i rate as the number 1 premo pick up this week, bit if it causes a donut there are other options.

This is for Overall players, trying to win league is a whole other thing.

Yeah fair point on Rocky, but anyone else I dunno man. Depends heavily on who you're playing in the interim I guess, but if you get Joelwood now, he's out next week. Which, sure, you might be able to cover. But still, you pick up Sloane later for a higher price. But based on averages as it stands, I think there's a great chance Sloane can outscore other outcomes even with a donut.  Basically, whatever rookie covers the week your non-Sloane premo is out, can Sloane make that many points extra compared to other prems over the weeks between now and when you get him? And if you get him earlier and pay a ton for him, what are you sacrificing to allow that? Even from an overall perspective the numbers make sense to me to get him this week, donut or not.

With that said, if you're in a position right now where you can't trade out a bye 13 player to get Sloane, or trading in Sloane means you have so many players not playing round 13 that you can't avoid a donut with 6 trades over the next 2 weeks, you aren't in the running for overall :P
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Bully
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« Reply #34 on: May 31, 2017, 10:30:34 AM »


Wines is a good test case because they don't have the bye. That's a scenario where you could be better off. Still, for +5 you're a trade and money worse off in all likelihood, still worth those 5 points?


You save 120k from the initial outlay, Wines should also appreciate in a similar manner to Sloane as he's undervalue by 58k. The money saved will be used on a Fyfe to Rocky trade next week.
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_wato
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« Reply #35 on: May 31, 2017, 12:13:34 PM »

Is it bad of me sitting 41st to not go Sloane in an attempt to hope he crashes and burns?

Had him last year and while he was awesome he was never this good. Think he slows down at some point.

Danger Pendles Rocky Bont JPK Fyfe Merrett Murphy will be the finished mids.
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batt
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« Reply #36 on: May 31, 2017, 12:53:24 PM »

its simple dont trade in Sloane if he gets you a donut.
Holz spitting truth right here.  It is ultra simple.  It's at most a 5ppg loss if you can cover him.  That doesn't account for the fact you get a legit VC/C option which can make up some of those points down the line.

Trades are worth points on their own too.  At least 200.
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js19
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« Reply #37 on: May 31, 2017, 12:56:03 PM »

Is it bad of me sitting 41st to not go Sloane in an attempt to hope he crashes and burns?

Had him last year and while he was awesome he was never this good. Think he slows down at some point.

Danger Pendles Rocky Bont JPK Fyfe Merrett Murphy will be the finished mids.

Pretty strong mids. If you use trades and money well elsewhere you should be able to offset Sloane's extra points, but depends how the rest of the team will finish up.
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_wato
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« Reply #38 on: May 31, 2017, 12:56:57 PM »

Also just wanted to add to the argument.

do you all see him continuing to average 125? I sure as hell don't.

115 at best on the run home imo.
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_wato
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« Reply #39 on: May 31, 2017, 12:58:05 PM »

Is it bad of me sitting 41st to not go Sloane in an attempt to hope he crashes and burns?

Had him last year and while he was awesome he was never this good. Think he slows down at some point.

Danger Pendles Rocky Bont JPK Fyfe Merrett Murphy will be the finished mids.

Pretty strong mids. If you use trades and money well elsewhere you should be able to offset Sloane's extra points, but depends how the rest of the team will finish up.

Docherty Adams Laird Montagna Howe Lloyd

Goldy, (hopefully Gawn but Sandi atm)
Dahl Macrae Nank Buddy Lynch Higgins
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Huttabito
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« Reply #40 on: May 31, 2017, 01:03:02 PM »

Also just wanted to add to the argument.

do you all see him continuing to average 125? I sure as hell don't.

115 at best on the run home imo.
Everyone knew Adelaide had the dream run up until the byes. Well done to those who backed him from the start after coming off the eye socket fracture but I just can't justify it now, not with the Rd13 bye.

I would be surprised if the back half replicates the first but you never know.
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js19
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« Reply #41 on: May 31, 2017, 01:07:20 PM »

Is it bad of me sitting 41st to not go Sloane in an attempt to hope he crashes and burns?

Had him last year and while he was awesome he was never this good. Think he slows down at some point.

Danger Pendles Rocky Bont JPK Fyfe Merrett Murphy will be the finished mids.

Pretty strong mids. If you use trades and money well elsewhere you should be able to offset Sloane's extra points, but depends how the rest of the team will finish up.

Docherty Adams Laird Montagna Howe Lloyd

Goldy, (hopefully Gawn but Sandi atm)
Dahl Macrae Nank Buddy Lynch Higgins

Solid. Sandi, Fyfe and Howe probably the only question marks at this point in the he season, but should be able to make some inroads. Personally getting Sloane, but still have mids to fill, so not compromising other lines to get there. 
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Peter
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« Reply #42 on: May 31, 2017, 01:34:39 PM »

If you look at Adelaide's fixture, Sloane should do well against the teams scheduled to play
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GCSkiwi
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« Reply #43 on: May 31, 2017, 01:54:52 PM »

its simple dont trade in Sloane if he gets you a donut.
Holz spitting truth right here.  It is ultra simple.  It's at most a 5ppg loss if you can cover him.  That doesn't account for the fact you get a legit VC/C option which can make up some of those points down the line.

Trades are worth points on their own too.  At least 200.

I feel like your comment is the exact counterargument to Holz' point :P

Also just wanted to add to the argument.

do you all see him continuing to average 125? I sure as hell don't.

115 at best on the run home imo.

I didn't see him averaging 125 for the first 10, but here we are. Valid point though, it's all crystal ball gazing really. I stack up numbers based on form, with 5/10 games over 130 he's hard to ignore.
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dylanclements
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« Reply #44 on: May 31, 2017, 02:05:28 PM »

do you all see him continuing to average 125? I sure as hell don't.

Strong call! That's well within his scope to my mind. I would've thought 120-125 isn't that unlikely
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