LaHug's Captains 2017 - Round 23 - The Final Chapter

[LaHug]

This is the seventh year in a row I've brought you LaHug's Captains!

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I raise money each year to honour my father and two grandfathers, all losing their battles with cancer.

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2017 FF Total: $171.40
Thanks to:
tor01doc
WhatMate
tabs/Capper
Mr. Craig
Senior

[LaHug]

Thanks for ready all year. Please donate to my Cancer Council fundraising page if you can spare anything! Each week I will tell you some statistics on a player's last 3 games, their last 3 against this week's opponent, and their last 3 at this ground. I will also do a quick overview on my thoughts and have a guess at their score for this week. From all this, I'll give you my top 5 captain choices for the week.

The facts & thoughts:

T. Mitchell
Last 3: 143, 118, 99 (120 avg)
Last 3 against Bulldogs: 141, 62, 118 (107 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 143, 90, 143 (125 avg)

Just when the numbers made him look like a mediocre option, Mitchell pumps out a 143. Sorry for doubting you. Prediction - 140

Macrae
Last 3: 149, 75, 126 (117 avg)
Last 3 against Hawthorn: 126, 78, 78 (94 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 75, 98, 99 (91 avg)

Definitely a risky POD here but Macrae's scored great in two of his last three games, and a 149 is hard to ignore. Good last time he played the Hawks as well. Prediction - 125

Treloar
Last 3: 99, 107, 103 (103 avg)
Last 3 against Melbourne: 116, 93, 123 (111 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 99, 119, 57 (92 avg)

Decent form and good against the Dees but there are better options. Prediction - 110

Adams
Last 3: 132, 128, 124 (128 avg)
Last 3 against Melbourne: 81, 106, 113 (100 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 132, 151, 87 (123 avg)

Adams delivered again last week and is carrying some great form. His history against the Dees scares me though. Prediction - 125

Grundy
Last 3: 103, 108, 127 (113 avg)
Last 3 against Melbourne: 158, 89, 105 (117 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 108, 72, 95 (92 avg)

Earlier this year, Grundy scored a 158 against a Melbourne team with Pedersen and McDonald in the ruck. His opponent this week is the much tougher Max Gawn and there's way too much chance Cox keeps his spot after last week's game. Prediction - 110 (or 85 if Cox plays)

Gawn
Last 3: 65, 75, 140 (93 avg)
Last 3 against Collingwood: 146, 107, 94 (116 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 65, 75, 83 (74 avg)

Max was easily best on in last year's game against the Pies but he's playing much more poorly this year and Grundy's playing well enough to slow him. I wouldn't go there with his form. Prediction - 100

Beams
Last 3: 138, 143, 80 (120 avg)
Last 3 against North: 53, 131, 48 (77 avg)
Last 3 at Gabba: 143, 80, 142 (122 avg)

Despite the one week I gave him the C, Beams has been killing it of late. He's a bit up and down against the Roos but the Roos gave up six tons last week so I wouldn't be too worried. Prediction - 130

Zorko
Last 3: 125, 82, 94 (100 avg)
Last 3 against North: 110, 82, 61 (84 avg)
Last 3 at Gabba: 82, 94, 119 (98 avg)

Zorko's been a bit down on form recently but was finally good last week. Expect him to be good again as the Roos will happily take home the spoon. Prediction - 120

Quick note: None of the Swans players had good enough numbers to write about this week but, if it's an ugly game like it could be, consider a Swan mid or Buddy as a POD.

Murphy
Last 3: 103, 117, 107 (109 avg)
Last 3 against Sydney: 100, 87, 113 (100 avg)
Last 3 at SCG: 113, 119, 75 (102 avg)

Unless the Swans anihilate the Blues, Murphy should be good based on the numbers. He likes the SCG. Prediction - 115

Docherty
Last 3: 143, 78, 97 (106 avg)
Last 3 against Sydney: 159, 122, 81 (121 avg)
Last 3 at SCG: 122, 98, 62 (94 avg)

Docherty loves to play the Swans and bounced back strong last week. Strongly consider him as, at the very least, he'll get lots of marks and kicks if the Swans dominate the midfield but kick lots of behinds as they may well do. Prediction - 130

Gibbs
Last 3: 105, 101, 125 (110 avg)
Last 3 against Sydney: 102, 131, 80 (104 avg)
Last 3 at SCG: 131, 118, 119 (123 avg)

Great record at the SCG. Gibbs will be another good one unless the game is a slaughter. Prediction - 120

Dangerfield
Last 3: 126, 130, 88 (115 avg)
Last 3 against GWS: 142, 108, 75 (108 avg)
Last 3 at Kardinia: 130, 134, 131 (132 avg)

142 last time he played the Giants and that was without Selwood. Danger scored well the past two weeks and consistently smashes it at Kardinia. In a must-win game for a home final, Danger will go huge. Prediction - 140

Duncan
Last 3: 117, 120, 117 (118 avg)
Last 3 against GWS: 95, 71, 16 (61 avg)
Last 3 at Kardinia: 120, 99, 97 (105 avg)

Duncan's form is good but his history against the Giants is not. I want to be a bit cautious but he should still ton. Prediction - 110

Kelly
Last 3: 130, 110, 131 (124 avg)
Last 3 against Geelong: 93, 74, 94 (87 avg)
Last 3 at Kardinia: 74 (74 avg)

Kelly's recent form is excellent but he only managed a 93 against the Cats earlier this year. It's not easy to go to Kardinia as a visitor and this will be a good test. Prediction - 115

Heppell
Last 3: 111, 74, 138 (108 avg)
Last 3 against Fremantle: 95, 81, 144 (107 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 74, 105, 101 (93 avg)

The numbers don't look great but wait until you hear this. 153, 140, 129, 128, 124, among 13 tons in the past two weeks. That's what Freo has given up. Prediction - 130

Merrett
Last 3: 91, 82, 96 (90 avg)
Last 3 against Fremantle: 124, 121, 86 (110 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 82, 96, 144 (107 avg)

You just read the above and thought "Merrett's a lock", right? WRONG! Trent Cotchin copped a strong tag from Sutcliffe last week and it held him to 53 points. Do you know who has been tagged at the Bombers recently? Zach Merrett. I think he gets tagged hard. Prediction - 80

Fyfe
Last 3: 95, 107, 132 (111 avg)
Last 3 against Essendon: 95, 101, 108 (101 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 114, 137, 54 (102 avg)

Fyfe's scored a 95 and a 107 in back-to-back 104 point losses. I don't think the Bombers will win by that much which means a better score from Fyfe to finish his year strongly. Prediction - 120

Neale
Last 3: 32, 152, 106 (97 avg)
Last 3 against Essendon: 138, 126, 131 (132 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 100, 104, 132 (112 avg)

If Neale is fit, he might just be your best POD choice. He adores playing the Bombers and could rack it up one last time. Prediction - 130

D. Martin
Last 3: 124, 99, 117 (113 avg)
Last 3 against St Kilda: 73, 86, 98 (86 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 117, 116, 96 (110 avg)

I warned you last time and I'll warn you again. Do not captain Dusty against the Saints. He's never scored a ton against them and I don't know if he ever will. Prediction - 85

Sloane
Last 3: 153, 97, 124 (125 avg)
Last 3 against West Coast: 107, 111, 108 (109 avg)
Last 3 at Subi: 81, 107, 87 (92 avg)

Assuming Hutchins tags him, you can't back Sloane. But it's so, so tempting based on his numbers when he goes well. 8 frees last week certainly helped though and don't expect the same love in Perth. Prediction - 90

LAHUG'S RETIREES BONANZA!

The retiring class of 2017 is a special one and I want to take this opportunity to mention all of the Fantasy relevant guys we've enjoyed in our sides over the years (sorry Jesse White - not you).

Luke Hodge
Last 3: 46, 120, 100 (89 avg)
Last 3 against Bulldogs: 114, 159, 96 (123 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 46, 73, 140 (86 avg)

Hodge was meant to be big last week but disappointed. The numbers suggest he'll be good this week and, as a big game player, he'll surely bounce back for his last hurrah. Prediction - 120

Matthew Boyd
Last 3: 83, 86, 66 (78 avg)
Last 3 against Hawthorn: 58, 92, 70 (73 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 70, 81, 71 (74 avg)

We're well past the days of 140s, 150s, 160s from Boyd but he must be remembered as a regular C choice in his day. I expect a farewell game this week but not a big score. Prediction - 80

Bob Murphy
Last 3: 55, 82, 75 (71 avg)
Last 3 against Hawthorn: 94, 84, 116 (98 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 94, 91, 100 (95 avg)

Bob's been quietly good against the Hawks and at Etihad in his recent history so he could finish his career with one last great game. It's unfortunate that he didn't get to play in the big day last year. Prediction - 95

Steve Johnson
Last 3: 60, 82, 46 (63 avg)
Last 3 against Geelong: 87, 61, 111 (86 avg)
Last 3 at Kardinia: 61, 102, 97 (87 avg)

Stevie J should return this week for what could be his last game at the Cattery (depending on who wins). He scored a ton the first time he played his old side but he's past it from a Fantasy perspective now. Prediction - 65

James Kelly
Last 3: 90, 86, 64 (80 avg)
Last 3 against Fremantle: 53, 88, 94 (78 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 86, 64, 48 (66 avg)

Kelly's not far off a defensive premium still in his final year. I still recall the dominant ABCKS days of Ablett, Bartel, Corey, Kelly, Selwood, where it was genuinely reasonable to have five midfielders from the same team in your side. His numbers don't look great going into his last Fantasy game but Freo have given up so much that there's a chance he goes big one last time. Prediction - 95

Jobe Watson
Last 3: 55, 36, 74 (55 avg)
Last 3 against Fremantle: 108, 78, 65 (84 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 74, 82, 125 (94 avg)

Jobe started his final season on fire but has clearly burnt out as the year has gone on. He's had a rest now and might just go big one last time. The Dockers are giving up a lot of points. Prediction - 105

Nick Riewoldt
Last 3: 86, 59, 57 (67 avg)
Last 3 against Richmond: 112, 102, 89 (101 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 102, 117, 71 (97 avg)

Was still considered a forward premium at the start of the year but it looks like Nick's body is finally calling it a day. Rooey loves to play against his cousin and will give his owners one last ton on the way out. Prediction - 115

Matt Priddis
Last 3: 127, 70, 82 (93 avg)
Last 3 against Adelaide: 124, 114, 70 (103 avg)
Last 3 at Subi: 70, 93, 74 (79 avg)

Priddis used to be a midfield gun and showed it with last week's 127. He's great against the Crows and it might just be enough for a final big score. Prediction - 110

Sam Mitchell
Last 3: 87, 79, 84 (83 avg)
Last 3 against Adelaide: 101, 106, 93 (100 avg)
Last 3 at Subi: 79, 101, 77 (86 avg)

Oh Sam Mitchell. I've had you in Dream Teams across many year and in keeper leagues too. If you'd kicked a bit more and handballed a bit less, you could be an all-time Fantasy great. Here's hoping for one last ton against the Crows. Prediction - 100

Special mention to Scott Thompson who isn’t playing this week but was in many a Fantasy side over the years.

The verdict:
1.   Dangerfield (140)

2.   T. Mitchell (140)
3.   Beams (130)
4.   Heppell (130)
5.   Docherty (130)

[kilbluff1985]

Titch
Neale
Zorko
Danger


best options this week imo

[Torpedo10]

Love it LH.

Pity I rarely jump on the AF board, I'd be going Hepp or Zerrett C.

[Hawka]

Great stuff as always LH, Shame i dont play AF this season

[jvalles69]

I went against the great Tom Mitchell as C last week and lost all my prelims...I won't make that mistake again...

[Grazz]

Thanks for all your efforts again this year Huggy.
Shame the AF boards don't get a lot of traffic these days, it's a good useful thread worthy of more people seeing it.
Cheers mate. 

[jvalles69]

Thanks for all your efforts again this year Huggy.
Shame the AF boards don't get a lot of traffic these days, it's a good useful thread worthy of more people seeing it.
Cheers mate. 

Same hear Hug, I view this thread every week, and prob don't comment as much any more because the AF boards are a bit of a ghost town.  Always use your captains thread to back up my own thoughts.

[LaHug]

Thanks all! I'll consider if it needs to be moved somewhere else next year or whether it keeps going at all. It's been a fun year

[Senior]

Cheer LaHug, I view this thread every week and its definitely one of the reasons why I'm ranked in the top 300  I just donated some money too, its great to see how much money youve raised over the years, keep it up mate!

[LaHug]

Cheer LaHug, I view this thread every week and its definitely one of the reasons why I'm ranked in the top 300  I just donated some money too, its great to see how much money youve raised over the years, keep it up mate!

Thanks for the support and for the donation!

[Football Factory]

Thanks Huggy, been keeping my eye on this thread all year, apart from when you chucked sickies 

If i should get over the line this week  i will double your current total      $171.40

[LaHug]

Thanks Huggy, been keeping my eye on this thread all year, apart from when you chucked sickies 

If i should get over the line this week  i will double your current total      $171.40

Thanks mate. Good luck this week!

[WhatMate]

Cheers mate, always very insightful!

[nrich102]

Awesome work as always mate, just one clanger this week. How do you think big Zac Dawson will go this week?