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Author Topic: Supercoach 2018 - Ruck Strategy  (Read 5571 times)
LordSneeze
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« Reply #15 on: December 11, 2017, 04:04:59 PM »

Nice crowls. I haven't had a chance to look at the ruck situation yet. First thought was Nic Nat, but coming back from injuries it is a bit of a risk. Without cover this is something im not sure I want to do.
Ryder looks really promising, but I don't like the early bye situation, again that might end up being a godsend over the actual byes.
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Gigantor
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« Reply #16 on: December 11, 2017, 05:00:48 PM »

Yeah Nic Nat spends a lot of time on the bench think it will increase coming off a knee reco plus Vardy seems to be over his injuries
Would appreciate feedback from the Eagles followers on their thoughts about how NicNat will be used this year.  Especially in regard to being rested or low TOG affecting his SC scoring averages and totals.   

Nic Nat has always had a relatively low TOG, he's a burst player which is why he never rucks alone. One of Vardy and Lycett will always play but I'm not worried about his scoring when he's playing, even with a second ruck, its the resting that has me concerned.
If Lycett can get back to his best WC will have no issue in giving Nic Nat a rest and have both Lycett and Vardy playing.

The good news is WC play 7/11 in Perth before the byes so there is a chance he won't get a rest early on.
Rd 5 maybe if he starts a bit sore but if that happens the alarm bells would be well and truly sounding so trade him out haha
Rd 13 after the bye is in Syd so that's a danger game plus 13 to 14 is a 6 day break.
Another thing to consider is if WC have a shower year he could get bulk resting in the last part of the year.

Looking at the fixture I would say any away game linked to a 6 day break would be the highest risk of resting

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meow meow
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« Reply #17 on: December 11, 2017, 06:37:36 PM »

Wilbur is teaching Goldy how to play football properly, so I think you should invest in that. Be prepared for A LOT of FA's and possibly a suspension though.
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crowls
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« Reply #18 on: December 11, 2017, 07:35:46 PM »

Does not look good for NicNat.  2 possible rests and no ruck coverage options unless you spend bucks on r3.   Pretty much puts him out of contention for me.   Ryder and/or Sauce which means finding the cash.   shower

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Gigantor
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« Reply #19 on: December 11, 2017, 08:16:12 PM »

Does not look good for NicNat.  2 possible rests and no ruck coverage options unless you spend bucks on r3.   Pretty much puts him out of contention for me.   Ryder and/or Sauce which means finding the cash.   shower
Yes but Ryder has the early bye, which without cover is effectively him being rested  :o
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crowls
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« Reply #20 on: December 11, 2017, 09:49:39 PM »

Does not look good for NicNat.  2 possible rests and no ruck coverage options unless you spend bucks on r3.   Pretty much puts him out of contention for me.   Ryder and/or Sauce which means finding the cash.   shower
Yes but Ryder has the early bye, which without cover is effectively him being rested  :o
took another look.   both the 6 day rests are for WA games so he will probably play.  if he makes it to r11 or his bye ryder can be traded in.      preference is for no trades though.
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RaisyDaisy
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« Reply #21 on: December 11, 2017, 10:19:03 PM »

I think you guys are over reacting a bit regarding NN

Yeah he might not be the safest pick, but the upside and that price is well worth it

Has plenty of years playing 20 games too
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Money Shot
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« Reply #22 on: December 12, 2017, 09:02:06 AM »

I think you guys are over reacting a bit regarding NN

Yeah he might not be the safest pick, but the upside and that price is well worth it

Has plenty of years playing 20 games too
Yeah I feel like it is a pretty safe choice to start Nic Nat.
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LordSneeze
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« Reply #23 on: December 12, 2017, 10:02:30 AM »

Priced at $466k which is an implied price of 85
Likely average of 105. Implied Price for a 105 is $588k.
At best you make 80-100k if he is rested.
He is coming off a year off and no one can be certain he will step straight back in.

•   Best case scenario is he plays 22 games, is a premium all year and averages over 105. Almost as likely that I win the lotto.
•   Most likely scenario is he plays 20 games averaging 105 and is rested for 2 games. Given there is NO adequate cover (Yet) this drops that ruck position average to 95-96. You could trade here, but your not making enough cash IMO to make that a worthwhile option and you do not know if this will happen before the cash rises.
•   Worse case is he gets injured and you are forced into a trade.

Also, He has never been a consistent scorer, yes he has a high ceiling, but in a position that’s unlikely to have cover it’s not a great thing.

Since 2011
-80 = 29.52%
80-89 = 6.67%
90-99 = 6.67%
100-109 = 22.86%
110+ = 34.28%

The question for me is who is any better than  NN.
As much as I want to take the risk with Goldy, im a firm believer that Preuess will continue to get opportunities.
Ryder looks a good option, and will need to look into the impact of the early bye. Im leaning towards him though.
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shaker
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« Reply #24 on: December 12, 2017, 11:42:22 AM »

Priced at $466k which is an implied price of 85
Likely average of 105. Implied Price for a 105 is $588k.
At best you make 80-100k if he is rested.
He is coming off a year off and no one can be certain he will step straight back in.

•   Best case scenario is he plays 22 games, is a premium all year and averages over 105. Almost as likely that I win the lotto.
•   Most likely scenario is he plays 20 games averaging 105 and is rested for 2 games. Given there is NO adequate cover (Yet) this drops that ruck position average to 95-96. You could trade here, but your not making enough cash IMO to make that a worthwhile option and you do not know if this will happen before the cash rises.
•   Worse case is he gets injured and you are forced into a trade.

Also, He has never been a consistent scorer, yes he has a high ceiling, but in a position that’s unlikely to have cover it’s not a great thing.

Since 2011
-80 = 29.52%
80-89 = 6.67%
90-99 = 6.67%
100-109 = 22.86%
110+ = 34.28%

The question for me is who is any better than  NN.
As much as I want to take the risk with Goldy, im a firm believer that Preuess will continue to get opportunities.
Ryder looks a good option, and will need to look into the impact of the early bye. Im leaning towards him though.
Good write up LS there is no doubting NN has been a good SC scorer in the past I'm just concerned they will handle him with kid gloves especially in the early part of the season I don't want a string of 70-80 scores early on but lets see what happens in the pre season comp, as for Ryder I'm sold on him it's just his early bye the problem so just hoping I can afford a cheaper R/3 to cover so it's just a waiting game
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crowls
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« Reply #25 on: December 12, 2017, 11:45:47 AM »

Excellent analysis LS.    Definitely looks like a choice between Ryder or Jacobs atm if going set and forget.   Alternative strategy is NicNat until Ryder bye then trade up.  Hope NN is not rested or injured and scores well enough to generate the cash for the trade.     Effectively only start NN if you need the cash to get another Prem into Mids for 6 keepers.   


Grundy is out due to Cox,  Goldy due to Preuss.  Nank would need to improve again on last year and I do not see it at this time.    Witts would need to improve.      Stef has Archie to deal with.     Very limited options from where I sit.     


Option 1.   NicNat - trade up to Ryder at R10.
Opton 2.   Ryder.
Option 3.  Jacobs.


Think Darcy would be a good option if Sandi goes down.   Pick him up cheap and be happy with 90+ average.  Still very young though and too expensive to sit on the bench.     
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Ringo
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« Reply #26 on: December 13, 2017, 10:48:52 AM »

This has just got more interesting and worth following over the next hours or so.
TimGossage

Unconfirmed @WestCoastEagles star Nic Naitanui suffered setback at training yesterday. Unsure of seriousness but he was due to step up training with main group this week. @TenNewsPerth chasing more details
« Last Edit: December 13, 2017, 11:04:07 AM by Ringo » Logged
TomK
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« Reply #27 on: December 13, 2017, 10:58:26 AM »

This has just got more interesting and worth following over the next hours or so.

TimGossage
Wowee :o
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Money Shot
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« Reply #28 on: December 13, 2017, 11:06:48 AM »

Well that throws a spanner in the works :o
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LordSneeze
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« Reply #29 on: December 13, 2017, 11:32:40 AM »

Well that throws a spanner in the works :o

Only for those that were actually wanting to start him. No impact for those that don't and probably confirms in the minds another reason not too.
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