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Author Topic: LS 2018 Discussions  (Read 2765 times)
LordSneeze
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« on: January 08, 2018, 05:31:08 PM »



Currently all rookies are placeholders only. I haven’t looked into them at all yet as I don’t see the point in it until the preseason truly starts. Link your team when you provide your thoughts and ill give my feedback.

Defence

Laird – IMO a lock for the top 3 defenders. Racks up possessions, good pressure acts and tough to be tagged.
Hibberd – We saw only a sample of what he can produce this year, plays a very similar SC friendly role like Laird
Simpson/WitherGOAT/someone else– Not 100% on this position yet. I really like the look of Simpson this year with Docherty going down and Gibbs moving on Simpson is going to be crucial and highly likely to move back from the wing onto the HB. WitherGOAT is just elite disposal and going to be a top 5 defender for years, tempted but likely to wait and bring him in if he shows he can maintain that.

Midfield
To Danger or Not Danger is the main question. He is $100k more expensive than the next mid. You will be able to get him cheaper at some point, but is it worth the risk. For this draft I have left him out, but ATM im very likely to start him.

Mitchell – Only 2 under 100 all year and 1 of those was with a 125 DT. Will keep getting the ball and keep getting the points.
M Crouch – Crows will be up there again this year and Crouch is only just hitting his straps. Taken over from Sloane, but Sloane will keep getting the tag.
Z Merrett – The one that im likely to change to Danger, 9 under 100 last year and while his ceiling is high, his variance is too.
Fyfe – Don’t need to say anything
Pendles – 7 straight years over 110 until 2017 and he still managed a 106 while playing injured. 6/16 over 120 shows he is still there. If body is right he is well underpriced. One of my first picked.

Rucks
Goldy – Not sure on this position yet. Can goldy get back to his best, will Grundy break out, Will Nic Nat be worth the injury & resting risk, can Martin become consistent. Is Ryder’s Bye too big a disadvantage
Gawn – Underpriced for what he can produce

Forwards
Heeney – IMO will be the top forward this year, safe pick.
Dahl – Not yet decided on this position so this is a placeholder more than anything else.
Barlow – Averaged 89 excluding his injury game. I believe with Ablett gone he will get more chances through the mids and is a high chance to push towards a 90-100 average. Has always known how to get the ball, just question over if his body can hold up.
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Ringo
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« Reply #1 on: January 08, 2018, 05:44:42 PM »

Nice Team to start LS and nice bye premium structure.
Danger or No Danger is the question you have rightly posed. May get cheaper as you say but is it a risk.
Without Danger maybe need Dusty, as he will drive Tigers defence of Title and CD seem to love him.
Rucks is the issue for you - Gawn is a must but 2nd is a lottery which may depend on price. Personally starting Nat and hoping he plays first 9 to get a nice price rise and maybe switch to Ryder after the bye. Martin may start as sole ruck at Lions but suspect at some stage we may want to get more games into Archie or McInerney given Stefs age. Was our only player over 30 till Hodgeys arrival.
Forwards hard to argue although I have gone McLean over Dahlhaus. Barlow's bye may be an issue you need to prepare for but he is really flying at Suns preseason training.
Pity we will only have 2 JLT games to look at structures and form,
Like all of us keeping fingers crossed that rookies surface so we do not have to down premiums to make way.

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SilverLion
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« Reply #2 on: January 08, 2018, 06:15:54 PM »

Nice side first up LS. Simpson/WitherGOAT is a tough one, I've locked WitherGOAT into my side from the outset but Simpson has gone 90+ the last decade so is clearly a good option.

Rucks have to be Gawn/Naitanui really.

Fwds are solid, shot in the dark this year really.

Re: Danger/No Danger, personally I can see reasons for and against. Would only not pick him if I could find a better way to use the extra $150k odd, which would be tough.
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GoLions
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« Reply #3 on: January 08, 2018, 06:44:05 PM »

Nice side first up LS. Simpson/WitherGOAT is a tough one, I've locked WitherGOAT into my side from the outset but Simpson has gone 90+ the last decade so is clearly a good option.

Rucks have to be Gawn/Naitanui really.

Fwds are solid, shot in the dark this year really.

Re: Danger/No Danger, personally I can see reasons for and against. Would only not pick him if I could find a better way to use the extra $150k odd, which would be tough.
I don't think you have to start NicNat. There is quite a bit of risk associated with him, and obviously huge upside as well. But if he goes down, or is managed throughout the season, guys like Goldy, Kreuz, Stef, Grundy, Sauce etc could easily be better starting picks.
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Peter
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« Reply #4 on: January 08, 2018, 07:20:04 PM »

The problem with Goldy is Preuss who will get game time and neither can play forward like Cox. A very big risk imo
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enzedder
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« Reply #5 on: January 08, 2018, 09:04:43 PM »

The 3 things that jump out at me are...
No Danger and that is the Danger. You need him.
Goldy... as stated Preuss is the worry here. Think playing it safer is the strategy with rucks this year as most will go Gawn, NicNat if they line up healthy R1 and you can stay with the field so to speak... let your other picks determine your success.
Barlow has the doughnut bye. It's an unnecessary advantage you are giving everyone else. If he does well enough early get him in after R10.



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LordSneeze
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« Reply #6 on: January 09, 2018, 12:44:51 AM »

Nice Team to start LS and nice bye premium structure.
Danger or No Danger is the question you have rightly posed. May get cheaper as you say but is it a risk.
Without Danger maybe need Dusty, as he will drive Tigers defence of Title and CD seem to love him.
Rucks is the issue for you - Gawn is a must but 2nd is a lottery which may depend on price. Personally starting Nat and hoping he plays first 9 to get a nice price rise and maybe switch to Ryder after the bye. Martin may start as sole ruck at Lions but suspect at some stage we may want to get more games into Archie or McInerney given Stefs age. Was our only player over 30 till Hodgeys arrival.
Forwards hard to argue although I have gone McLean over Dahlhaus. Barlow's bye may be an issue you need to prepare for but he is really flying at Suns preseason training.
Pity we will only have 2 JLT games to look at structures and form,
Like all of us keeping fingers crossed that rookies surface so we do not have to down premiums to make way.

Im a little worried that the Tigers will do what the Doggies did and fall back off the pace. Im definitely not starting Martin as I see very little benefit or value in that. Upgrade target if he can maintain.

Yes rucks are the issue, which is why I have Goldy only as a placeholder ATM. If people have read my posts before about Nic Nat, im 95% not starting him, risk is too great IMO on a position that has no cover or clear downgrade trades when he breaks.

Not sold on Dahl yet, but also not confident on the other options either could easily become Lobb and strengthen elsewhere.
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LordSneeze
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« Reply #7 on: January 09, 2018, 12:50:59 AM »

Nice side first up LS. Simpson/WitherGOAT is a tough one, I've locked WitherGOAT into my side from the outset but Simpson has gone 90+ the last decade so is clearly a good option.

Rucks have to be Gawn/Naitanui really.

Fwds are solid, shot in the dark this year really.

Re: Danger/No Danger, personally I can see reasons for and against. Would only not pick him if I could find a better way to use the extra $150k odd, which would be tough.

Ill always take the experience and history over the potential breakout. You can always trade the breakout in f they do.

I don't agree on Nic Nat, ive explained elsewhere why im not starting him. My rucks wll be Gawn and one of the other prems, just who im unsure of ATM.

$150k is a lot of cash. Definete better ways to use that IMO, its just if I feel that I can go without him and the community.
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LordSneeze
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« Reply #8 on: January 09, 2018, 01:06:29 AM »

The 3 things that jump out at me are...
No Danger and that is the Danger. You need him.
Goldy... as stated Preuss is the worry here. Think playing it safer is the strategy with rucks this year as most will go Gawn, NicNat if they line up healthy R1 and you can stay with the field so to speak... let your other picks determine your success.
Barlow has the doughnut bye. It's an unnecessary advantage you are giving everyone else. If he does well enough early get him in after R10.
Yes no having Danger would be a huge risk, but this year I can see reasons to not start him without being burnt even if he averages 130.

A lot of people will discard Goldy because of Preuss, but i would suggest looking into it a bit closer as to what the impact truly was, not just averages. There is a reason i have him as the placeholder over a Sauce/Grundy/Martin.

Im not worried about Barlows Bye, if you have a lan to cover it then picking him at the start is a massive POD.
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Money Shot
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« Reply #9 on: January 09, 2018, 09:31:43 AM »

First of all I love the expensive place holders. When actual teams come out with the rookies that are named you could potentially bring in another premium.

Defence all have solid picks so I can't fault them. I also would choose Simpson over Witherden.

It has already been said that having no danger is a risk but with the 5 mid premiums that you have chosen I wouldn't be toooooo worried. All could be top 10 come seasons end. If you can get Danger in however, I would.

Although I am starting Nic Nat I can see why you are not however I don't think Goldy is the answer. I would prefer Jacobs who is a similar price from memory. Think of all the hitouts to advantage with the likes of Gibbs, Sloane and Crouch x2 at his feet. If i can find the extra money I will be putting Jacobs in over Nic Nat. North are rebuilding and my dad who is there biggest (and probably only supporter ;)) thinks that Preuss will take over the number one ruck role come seasons end, whether that is true or not I don't know.

Forwards are all good options. Barlow is a tricky one as he is 50k cheaper than most options and is most likely to go 110 out of all forwards however his bye and the fact that he could still be used as a half forward have put me off him for now.

Overall it is a great start mate. Well done :)
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Peter
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« Reply #10 on: January 09, 2018, 02:11:41 PM »

Consider Kruezer for NN - same bye, no other obvious ruck (Lobbe no chance), solid season in 2017 and little injury; also gets the outlet kick a la Martin
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crowls
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« Reply #11 on: January 09, 2018, 06:08:04 PM »

Nice side first up LS. Simpson/WitherGOAT is a tough one, I've locked WitherGOAT into my side from the outset but Simpson has gone 90+ the last decade so is clearly a good option.

Rucks have to be Gawn/Naitanui really.

Fwds are solid, shot in the dark this year really.

Re: Danger/No Danger, personally I can see reasons for and against. Would only not pick him if I could find a better way to use the extra $150k odd, which would be tough.
I don't think you have to start NicNat. There is quite a bit of risk associated with him, and obviously huge upside as well. But if he goes down, or is managed throughout the season, guys like Goldy, Kreuz, Stef, Grundy, Sauce etc could easily be better starting picks.
Totally agree with you on this.   Goldy can definitely be a great POD with ability to top 2500 points for the year and give you a great boost over the field.   To me it is Goldy, Jacobs or NicNat at R2.   Why a playing R3 would be a godsend.   Nice team LS that prompts thought from others on why they have started Danger.   Though I feel Toby will outscore Luke this year at the Dogs.
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Trindacut
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« Reply #12 on: January 10, 2018, 07:21:01 AM »

I've done the 'no danger' in the past with previous best players (ie Gaz), regretted it every time. They do drop at times, like Danger did this year around Rd 8. But you need a lot of shower to go your way. He had two games under 100, and a 120, so he dropped off 150k, and it happened at just the right time to trade him in (Rd 8).

You get a player doing this out of the gates and you have to trade up, means trading out a premo still and getting rid of a rookie that probably still has growing to do.

There are safer ways to chase a bargain than gambling on guns.
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Money Shot
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« Reply #13 on: January 10, 2018, 09:43:57 AM »

I've done the 'no danger' in the past with previous best players (ie Gaz), regretted it every time. They do drop at times, like Danger did this year around Rd 8. But you need a lot of shower to go your way. He had two games under 100, and a 120, so he dropped off 150k, and it happened at just the right time to trade him in (Rd 8).

You get a player doing this out of the gates and you have to trade up, means trading out a premo still and getting rid of a rookie that probably still has growing to do.

There are safer ways to chase a bargain than gambling on guns.
Exactly. Would much rather gamble on someone like Goldy than I would by not starting Danger.
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SilverLion
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« Reply #14 on: January 10, 2018, 10:11:46 AM »

I've done the 'no danger' in the past with previous best players (ie Gaz), regretted it every time. They do drop at times, like Danger did this year around Rd 8. But you need a lot of shower to go your way. He had two games under 100, and a 120, so he dropped off 150k, and it happened at just the right time to trade him in (Rd 8).

You get a player doing this out of the gates and you have to trade up, means trading out a premo still and getting rid of a rookie that probably still has growing to do.

There are safer ways to chase a bargain than gambling on guns.
Exactly. Would much rather gamble on someone like Goldy than I would by not starting Danger.
Fair points, though Goldy has Preuss and Daw pushing for selection also. Naitanui has Lycett, but I don't see them competing for R1.
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