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Author Topic: To Danger, or Not to Danger  (Read 20153 times)
Trindacut
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« Reply #15 on: January 26, 2018, 11:57:17 AM »

Something to consider is Danger has a B/e of 138 for first round a score he exceeded 14 times last year. just advising to add to discussion and to consider if you think he will drop in value. Fair enough we do not know the Gazz influence but his scores against opponents for first 5 rounds from last year are at the same venue:
Essendon 112
Hawthorn 90
Eagles 141
St Kilda 120 (At etihad no game at Skilled)
Port 163 (St Skilled did not play Adelaide Oval)
So based on these scores there is a distinct possibility he could drop a bit in price. 
So basically the decision is risk not starting and pick up extra points by using extra cash on a prem elsewhere v increasing scoring by starting on fire.
So for me the decision will be whether to start with Danger who will be in team at end of year and save a trade or risk not starting and picking up points elsewhere.
Reminds of the debate we had over Gazz in previous years,

He still needs to drop 100k-150k to make that a wise desicision, and then you need to have the money to trade up a rookie (around 400k), or you upgrade an underperforming mid. It's harder to get him in than it sounds, and it's really easy to miss the window if your rookies are dropping off team sheets quick.
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Thewizz71
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« Reply #16 on: January 26, 2018, 12:17:02 PM »

I reckon he will drop to 120-125 so will lose 100k but ill still pick him 120+ is a must have.

Danger dmart locked in and titch too. Got to have the best of the best

I'm heading this way as well. Cant guarantee they will drop enough.
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meow meow
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« Reply #17 on: January 26, 2018, 02:20:48 PM »

If you don't start him you had better have a good plan of how to bring him in. Downgrading LDU and upgrading Kelly won't be enough to bring in Paddy if he drops to a mere 120 average. It's going to be hard unless you've got a dedicated stone like Redden or JOM (who carry their own risks).
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frenzy
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« Reply #18 on: January 26, 2018, 04:43:33 PM »

Yep, I think your in Danger if you don't Danger.
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RaisyDaisy
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« Reply #19 on: January 26, 2018, 10:45:53 PM »

The more you crunch the numbers and do all sorts of analysis the more you just end up wasting your time

Barring injury, he will be Top 3 in the comp for average and total points scored, regardless of where he spends his time on the ground

Lock him in, don't look back, and spend your time focusing on more pressing issues
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js19
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« Reply #20 on: January 26, 2018, 11:08:36 PM »

The chances of the no.1 team at the end of the year not having started Danger is fairly slim you'd think, so best to focus the energy elsewhere
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Adamant
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« Reply #21 on: January 27, 2018, 01:32:35 AM »

Hasn't been in my plans once and I don't see that changing.
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js19
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« Reply #22 on: January 27, 2018, 02:05:53 AM »

Hasn't been in my plans once and I don't see that changing.
Is this because you think he's too expensive full stop, or can you clearly see the numbers adding up elsewhere?
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Adamant
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« Reply #23 on: January 27, 2018, 03:01:12 AM »

Hasn't been in my plans once and I don't see that changing.
Is this because you think he's too expensive full stop, or can you clearly see the numbers adding up elsewhere?

A bit of both. I don't pick players if I don't think they can improve on their average and I don't see Danger going 136+ over the first 8 rounds or so. I'll bank on Prestia/Libba/Redden pumping out 100 over the first two months before I can get them to Paddy. In the meantime I'll also be fielding Patrick Cripps instead of Will Brodie.

I didn't start with him last year either and that worked out pretty well. Picked him up after Rd 9 when he was averaging 118.2 and had dropped over 150k.
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js19
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« Reply #24 on: January 27, 2018, 03:16:02 AM »

Hasn't been in my plans once and I don't see that changing.
Is this because you think he's too expensive full stop, or can you clearly see the numbers adding up elsewhere?

A bit of both. I don't pick players if I don't think they can improve on their average and I don't see Danger going 136+ over the first 8 rounds or so. I'll bank on Prestia/Libba/Redden pumping out 100 over the first two months before I can get them to Paddy. In the meantime I'll also be fielding Patrick Cripps instead of Will Brodie.

I didn't start with him last year either and that worked out pretty well. Picked him up after Rd 9 when he was averaging 118.2 and had dropped over 150k.

I guess it depends. I could see it working if going for league, but overall I wouldn't be game. The captains scores Danger can pump out can be a real problem if you don't have him
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shaker
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« Reply #25 on: January 27, 2018, 08:41:44 AM »

Hasn't been in my plans once and I don't see that changing.
Is this because you think he's too expensive full stop, or can you clearly see the numbers adding up elsewhere?

A bit of both. I don't pick players if I don't think they can improve on their average and I don't see Danger going 136+ over the first 8 rounds or so. I'll bank on Prestia/Libba/Redden pumping out 100 over the first two months before I can get them to Paddy. In the meantime I'll also be fielding Patrick Cripps instead of Will Brodie.

I didn't start with him last year either and that worked out pretty well. Picked him up after Rd 9 when he was averaging 118.2 and had dropped over 150k.

I guess it depends. I could see it working if going for league, but overall I wouldn't be game. The captains scores Danger can pump out can be a real problem if you don't have him
This ^ the only other player I can think of in recent times of pumping out monster score after monster score was Gaz when he was a bit younger just can't miss out on all those juicy captains scores :)
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GoLions
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« Reply #26 on: January 28, 2018, 11:28:45 AM »

Hasn't been in my plans once and I don't see that changing.
Is this because you think he's too expensive full stop, or can you clearly see the numbers adding up elsewhere?

A bit of both. I don't pick players if I don't think they can improve on their average and I don't see Danger going 136+ over the first 8 rounds or so. I'll bank on Prestia/Libba/Redden pumping out 100 over the first two months before I can get them to Paddy. In the meantime I'll also be fielding Patrick Cripps instead of Will Brodie.
I for one, really hope that Dion doesn't average 100 :P
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Adamant
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« Reply #27 on: January 28, 2018, 02:46:18 PM »

Hasn't been in my plans once and I don't see that changing.
Is this because you think he's too expensive full stop, or can you clearly see the numbers adding up elsewhere?

A bit of both. I don't pick players if I don't think they can improve on their average and I don't see Danger going 136+ over the first 8 rounds or so. I'll bank on Prestia/Libba/Redden pumping out 100 over the first two months before I can get them to Paddy. In the meantime I'll also be fielding Patrick Cripps instead of Will Brodie.
I for one, really hope that Dion doesn't average 100 :P

Oh don't worry, he's more likely to play 14 games at 90 before getting injured again. Duncan, meanwhile, will be the top scoring Cats mid. Guaranteed.
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Trindacut
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Loricco's Legends

« Reply #28 on: February 18, 2018, 07:18:43 AM »

Hasn't been in my plans once and I don't see that changing.
Is this because you think he's too expensive full stop, or can you clearly see the numbers adding up elsewhere?

A bit of both. I don't pick players if I don't think they can improve on their average and I don't see Danger going 136+ over the first 8 rounds or so. I'll bank on Prestia/Libba/Redden pumping out 100 over the first two months before I can get them to Paddy. In the meantime I'll also be fielding Patrick Cripps instead of Will Brodie.
I for one, really hope that Dion doesn't average 100 :P

Oh don't worry, he's more likely to play 14 games at 90 before getting injured again. Duncan, meanwhile, will be the top scoring Cats mid. Guaranteed.

That's brave. Duncan's good, but he isn't that good yet.
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SilverLion
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« Reply #29 on: March 11, 2018, 01:52:53 PM »

Hah..haha....hah...heh....

:-X
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