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Author Topic: Recent History  (Read 1607 times)
Adamant
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« on: January 12, 2018, 06:09:42 AM »

People seem to get hung up about having the top 10 midfielders, defenders etc at seasons end and how essential it is if you want to do well at this game. I've looked at the past 5 seasons and the top 10/4 ranked players for each position to see just how unpredictable these lists end up.



  2013

Defenders
Brendon Goddard
Bob Murphy
Michael Hibberd
Bryce Gibbs
Pearce Hanley
Heath Shaw
Garrick Ibbotson
Grant Birchall
Harry Taylor
Bachar Houli
Avg.         
106
98.8
95.9
95.7
95.7
95.6
94.5
94
92.5
91.6
Midfielders
Gary Ablett Jnr
Scott Pendlebury
Joel Selwood
Dane Swan
Ryan Griffen
Leigh Montagna
Patrick Dangerfield
Jobe Watson
Jack Steven
Michael Barlow
Avg.         
128.8
125.5
117.2
116.8
116.3
114.7
112.9
111.4
109.9
109.2
Rucks
Will Minson
Todd Goldstein
Dean Cox
Ivan Maric
Avg.         
114.3
113.5
107.3
98.9
Forwards
Steve Johnson
Tom Rockliff
Jimmy Bartel
Nick Riewoldt
Andrew Walker
Brent Harvey
Drew Petrie
Dustin Martin
Justin Westhoff
Matthew Stokes
Avg.
117.2
109.6
106.7
105.1
104.6
104
102.7
100.3
97.8
97.1



  2014

Defenders
Pearce Hanley
David Swallow
Nick Malceski
Jimmy Bartel
Jarrad McVeigh
Sam Mitchell
Luke Hodge
Kade Simpson
Brodie Smith
Shaun Burgoyne
Avg.         
103.7
103.1
101.4
100.3
99.2
98.7
96.1
95.4
93.5
92.8
Midfielders
Gary Ablett Jnr
Tom Rockliff
Scott Pendlebury
Joel Selwood
Nathan Fyfe
Dayne Beams
Rory Sloane
Steele Sidebottom
Josh P. Kennedy
Callan Ward
Avg.         
136.7
132
124.4
123.3
122.3
115.5
114.8
113.2
113.1
112.8
Rucks
Sam Jacobs
Shane Mumford
Stefan Martin
Todd Goldstein
Avg.         
115.3
114.1
111.7
108.9
Forwards
Robbie Gray
Brent Harvey
Patrick Dangerfield
Lance Franklin
Dustin Martin
Dayne Zorko
Ben McGlynn
Paul Chapman
Matthew Stokes
Jarryd Roughead
Avg.
110.9
107.1
105.6
100.8
99.3
98.9
97.1
96.2
95
94.5



  2015

Defenders
Heath Shaw
Luke Hodge
Liam Picken
Alex Rance
Tom McDonald
Corey Enright
Bachar Houli
Michael Hurley
Rory Laird
Kade Simpson
Avg.         
112.6
111
99.1
98.1
95.9
95.6
95.3
94.8
94.2
92.7
Midfielders
Nathan Fyfe
Patrick Dangerfield
Scott Pendlebury
Gary Ablett Jnr
Daniel Hannebery
Dayne Beams
Josh P. Kennedy
Matthew Priddis
David Mundy
Leigh Montagna
Avg.         
123.7
120
116.2
115.5
114.4
113.4
113.1
113
111.2
111
Rucks
Todd Goldstein
Stefan Martin
Aaron Sandilands
Sam Jacobs
Avg.         
128.1
110.7
107.5
107.3
Forwards
Brett Deledio
Robbie Gray
Dane Swan
Luke Dahlhaus
Dustin Martin
Marcus Bontempelli
Tom Mitchell
Harley Bennell
Dayne Zorko
Chad Wingard
Avg.
111.8
110.4
105.9
104.7
103.9
103.7
102.9
101.7
100.6
97.7



  2016

Defenders
Sam Docherty
Kade Simpson
Heath Shaw
Matthew Boyd
Corey Enright
Alex Rance
Rory Laird
James Kelly
Shaun Burgoyne
Jason Johannisen
Avg.         
108.7
106.3
103.7
100
99.5
98.4
97.5
96.2
95.5
93.5
Midfielders
Patrick Dangerfield
Scott Pendlebury
Gary Ablett Jnr
Josh P. Kennedy
Lachie Neale
Adam Treloar
Tom Rockliff
Joel Selwood
Daniel Hannebery
Luke Parker
Avg.         
131.9
118.6
114.7
113.5
112.6
111.2
111
110.8
110.7
108.7
Rucks
Max Gawn
Todd Goldstein
Nic Naitanui
Shane Mumford
Avg.         
118.5
108.9
105.9
97.2
Forwards
Zach Merrett
Dayne Zorko
Nick Riewoldt
Daniel Wells
Leigh Montagna
Michael Barlow
Luke Dahlhaus
Josh J. Kennedy
Aaron Hall
Lance Franklin
Avg.
111.4
109
101
100.4
98.9
98
97.2
96.9
95.5
95.1



  2017

Defenders
Sam Docherty
Taylor Adams
Michael Hurley
Rory Laird
Michael Hibberd
Jeremy Howe
Bachar Houli
Kade Simpson
Zac Williams
Dylan Roberton
Avg.         
114,7
107.5
102.5
100.2
99.2
94.1
94.1
93.9
93.9
92.6
Midfielders
Patrick Dangerfield
Dustin Martin
Tom Mitchell
Gary Ablett Jnr
Josh Kelly
Clayton Oliver
Dayne Zorko
Matt Crouch
Rory Sloane
Mitch Duncan
Avg.         
136.4
119.3
118.9
114.8
114.3
111.5
110.8
110.6
110.2
109.8
Rucks
Matthew Kreuzer
Patrick Ryder
Shane Mumford
Stefan Martin
Avg.         
109.8
103
98.3
98.2
Forwards
Jackson Macrae
Elliot Yeo
Lance Franklin
Isaac Heeney
Toby Greene
Josh J. Kennedy
Chad Wingard
Jack Billings
Shaun Higgins
Jack Steele
Avg.
107
102.1
98.3
97.6
96.1
93.5
93
92.7
91.9
91.1



Key

Players in blue have been in the top echelon of their position every year for the past 5 seasons, rating them god status.

Players in green have been in the top echelon of their position 3-4 times in the past 5 seasons, rating them elite.

Players in red have been in the top echelon of their position twice in the past 5 seasons, rating them high end premiums.

*current players only
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Adamant
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« Reply #1 on: January 12, 2018, 06:16:30 AM »

Notes

• Apart from 2015 where 3/4 of the highest averaging rucks from the previous season remained the same, there has been only 1 ruck that has backed up their top 4 placing in the following season (Goldy had been a consecutive top 4 ruck every season up until 2017, Mumford went back-to-back in 2016-17). Mummy is no longer there so we'll slide Grundy into his spot. There is a good chance that at least 3 of Kreuzer, Ryder, Martin and Grundy will not be in the top 4 rucks in 2018.

• Gary Ablett Jnr is the ONLY player that has been in the top echelon of their position every year for the past 5 seasons. Please keep writing him off.

• Excluding the rucks, the most a position has remained the same was in 2016 with 5/10 midfielders backing up their previous season (Dangerfield, Pendlebury, Ablett, Hannebery and Kennedy). History says at best only 50% of the top 2017 defenders, midfielders and forwards will back it up in 2018.

• I haven't seen perennial top 10 defender Bachar Houli or midfielder JPK in many sides. The latter is 11ppg underpriced from his 2016 average.

• Over the past 5 seasons, players aged 29 or over have made up 38% of the top 10 defenders, 20% for mids, 30% for rucks and 34% for forwards. Don't write off the oldies.

• The forward line is historically the hardest position to predict, with 2015 being the best year where 3/10 remained from the previous season. There have been 8 or 9 new faces every other season.

• In 2013, 9 top ranked players increased their average by 17 points or more from the previous season, only 2 remained in the top 10 of their position in 2014. 4/9 backed it up in 2015, 3/10 in 2016 and 0/5 in 2017. The majority of Hibberd, Kelly, Oliver, Crouch, Duncan, Kreuzer, Ryder, Yeo, Heeney, Billings and Steele are flowered.

• The forward line is the place to take punts with the most players (12/50 or 24%) that increased their average by 17 points or more from the previous season that ended up in the top 10 (from oldest season to most recent: 4, 3, 3, 2). This is closely followed by the backline with 11/50 or 22%.

• Only 22 current players have been in the top echelon of their position for consecutive seasons. These players are: Hanley, Ablett, Pendlebury, Selwood, Goldstein, Dustin Martin, Hodge, Simpson, Fyfe, Beams, Josh P Kennedy, Jacobs, Stefan Martin, Gray, Zorko, Shaw, Rance, Laird, Hannebery, Dahlhaus, Josh J Kennedy and Franklin.

• History says at least two defenders that averaged between 59.1 and 79.3 in 2017 will be top 10 defenders in 2018. Clarke, McGrath, Scharenberg, Maynard, Kolodjashnij, Sicily, Mills, Ryan, Hanley, Vlastuin, Pittard anyone?



What was the point of all this? Having the top 10 players is overrated, the loss of points early in the season by having to field 55 averaging spuds is underrated.

Brad Ebert and his 100.5 average was only good enough for 25th in the competition out of all midfielders in 2017. But was the extra 9.7 points scored by Rory Sloane (9th highest averaging mid) worth the extra 155k? that extra cash could have been used to turn a higher priced rookie into Jack Steele (91.1 average and the 10th highest averaging fwd).

Obviously you need a bit of luck to pick the correct mid-pricers but there are players floating around that I'd be reasonably confident picking. Coniglio, Prestia, Libba and Redden have all averaged over 100 before to name a few. They are all priced at 83 or less and are worth serious consideration.
« Last Edit: January 12, 2018, 06:19:11 AM by Adamant » Logged
Peter
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« Reply #2 on: January 12, 2018, 06:43:24 AM »

Excellent research Adamant. You hit the nail on the head - you have 3 or 4 midfielders that will be green in 2018, the trick and skill of us coaches is to select the Mitchell, Oliver, Steele of 2018 and that can be your 4th and or 5th mf. With Rucks, you can be impacted by injury (Kruezer) and the desire of coaches to develop a second ruck option (Cox, Smith, Lycett). How many trades do you want to use up finding the next gun or take the existing ones and trade up to the emerging guns. A great challenge for all of us
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enzedder
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« Reply #3 on: January 12, 2018, 07:04:10 AM »

That's some brilliant work there mate.
Simmo has been in the top10 for last 4 years and averaged 95 in the year he missed out. Was he a mid that year?
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« Reply #4 on: January 12, 2018, 07:14:13 AM »

Notes


• Gary Ablett Jnr is the ONLY player that has been in the top echelon of their position every year for the past 5 seasons. Please keep writing him off.


And Danger albeit in forwards one year. Only the silly are writing him off.
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SilverLion
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« Reply #5 on: January 12, 2018, 08:49:17 AM »

Notes


• Gary Ablett Jnr is the ONLY player that has been in the top echelon of their position every year for the past 5 seasons. Please keep writing him off.


And Danger albeit in forwards one year. Only the silly are writing him off.
Not writing him off, just think there's less injury prone options available for 631k or less ;D
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Adamant
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« Reply #6 on: January 12, 2018, 04:30:47 PM »

• 3 top ranked players (2 def, 1 mid) in 2013 couldn't back it up the following season, but were able to reclaim their top 10 mantle two seasons later in 2015. 4 players (1 def, 2 mids, 1 fwd) did the same between 14-16 and 5 players (2 def, 1 ruck, 2 fwds) between 15-17. History says that Heath Shaw and Alex Rance are likely to be top 10 defenders again in 2018, while a further 1-3 players from 2016 will also get back there.

• One midfielder that averaged between 87.8 and 91 in 2017 is a good chance to be top 10 in 2018. Connor Blakely looks like the best shout from this bracket.

• History says at least two forwards that averaged between 71.7 and 83.8 in 2017 will be top 10 forwards in 2018. Give some thought to Lobb, Mathieson, Acres, Curnow, Parish, Petracca, De Goey, Daniel, Smith, Martin and Papley.



What do these numbers tell us in relation to 2018?

Kade Simpson, Heath Shaw and Rory Laird are near locks to be top 10 defenders. Heater is a whopping 22.6 points underpriced from his 2016 average and will be out to reclaim his mantle. Hanley might be the second best value defender going around. Bachar is another likely top 10 defender that is flying under the radar

GAJ will be the 4th highest averaging midfielder at worst. It's very likely that at least one Sydney mid will be top 10 - Hanners, JPK and Parker are all 10 points underpriced or more.

2017's breakouts in Kelly, Oliver, Crouch and Duncan are in a bit of strife. Perhaps think twice before forking out 600k for these blokes.

Max Gawn is the undisputed biggest lock in the competition, but Stefan Martin might be the safest premium ruck. Kreuzer and Ryder simply cannot be top 4 rucks in 2018.

Dayne Zorko is underrated even as a mid only.

Get funky in the forward line. 7-9 of Franklin, Heeney, Greene, JJK, Wingard, Billings, Dixon, Dahlhaus, Cameron and Wallis won't be top 10 in 2018. You'd be a brave man to bet against Buddy however.

But above all, this shower is impossible to predict.
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Peter
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« Reply #7 on: January 12, 2018, 05:48:47 PM »

Summed up your work nicely in last sentence
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meow meow
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« Reply #8 on: January 12, 2018, 05:58:05 PM »

The #1 thing to extract from all that is that Wilbur was a god.
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frenzy
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« Reply #9 on: January 14, 2018, 09:58:29 PM »

The #1 thing to extract from all that is that Wilbur was a god.

Lol, and now he's gone to heaven.....Norf.
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Levi434
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« Reply #10 on: January 17, 2018, 03:02:37 PM »


• Gary Ablett Jnr is the ONLY player that has been in the top echelon of their position every year for the past 5 seasons. Please keep writing him off.

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Huttabito
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« Reply #11 on: January 17, 2018, 04:04:56 PM »


• Gary Ablett Jnr is the ONLY player that has been in the top echelon of their position every year for the past 5 seasons. Please keep writing him off.

No one is writing him off for average points. But the last 4 years he's played 15, 6, 14 and 14 games.
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quinny88
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« Reply #12 on: January 17, 2018, 09:08:24 PM »


• Gary Ablett Jnr is the ONLY player that has been in the top echelon of their position every year for the past 5 seasons. Please keep writing him off.

No one is writing him off for average points. But the last 4 years he's played 15, 6, 14 and 14 games.

And at best will only play 18 this year even if he doesn't get injured. There's no way the cats will risk him anytime he's even slightly sore or tired
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Peter
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« Reply #13 on: January 18, 2018, 06:33:19 AM »

Could be a good pick up later in season as Cats have a lot of home games in second half of season
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« Reply #14 on: January 18, 2018, 07:25:26 AM »

Investing in these players I need them to play at least 16 games to be considered, more interested in 'overall' points, rather than average.
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