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Author Topic: Bully's Boys 2018  (Read 23069 times)
shaker
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« Reply #30 on: February 12, 2018, 07:47:27 PM »

Think you need to get rid of one your mids and bolster your backs and forwards both look a weak  ;)
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Bully
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« Reply #31 on: February 12, 2018, 08:00:44 PM »

Think you need to get rid of one your mids and bolster your backs and forwards both look a weak  ;)

Just don't see too many players in those lines who tempt me. Just scanning through other teams most are fielding rookies at D5 & D6, F5 & F6. My set-up is purely about exposing rookie weakness & I don't want to fork out big bucks on LDU, Brodie etc.

A lot will depend on a couple of rebounders emerging from the rookie pack, I certainly won't be fielding guys like Goddard, O'Shea, Ballenden etc. Doedee is in that Corey Enright mould & Cumming is the heir apparent given the GWS injury situation.

The forward/midfield rookies can be mixed & matched so no problems there.

To be honest I've never gone this deep in the mids but that's where I see top value. The forwards and backs are far from settled and with Heeney & Billings having interrupted preseasons I'm steering clear. Similar deal with the backs, Hurley has a wrist injury, Yeo could be a one season wonder, Simpson is 34.

I'll definitely look at Dusty, Mitchell, Kelly etc if they can reproduce their 2017 form, but I'm not paying top dollar for them.
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shaker
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« Reply #32 on: February 12, 2018, 08:19:58 PM »

The problem I see is half your rookies probably are not going to be starting round 1 Tiges have already said Higgins is no monty for round 1 he will have to earn it then you have Daniels , Fogarty , Crowden , Ballenden and GWS said Cumming should see games some time this year just can't see that setup working then you have old hammies Rioli and Birchall who is still not good I know there is still a long way to go but that side just does not look right but just my opinion  ;)
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Bully
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« Reply #33 on: February 12, 2018, 10:02:10 PM »

The problem I see is half your rookies probably are not going to be starting round 1 Tiges have already said Higgins is no monty for round 1 he will have to earn it then you have Daniels , Fogarty , Crowden , Ballenden and GWS said Cumming should see games some time this year just can't see that setup working then you have old hammies Rioli and Birchall who is still not good I know there is still a long way to go but that side just does not look right but just my opinion  ;)

It's interesting that last year I got called out for starting Witts at R2, most people just couldn't get their head around starting a rookie in that position. Turned out to be a wise move in the end. The moral of the story is never judge a formation until you analyse the opportunity cost.

As far as the rookies go, I'm in the same boat as everyone, will fill those spots as they open up, but if there's one thing I have done it's putting hours of work into studying the juniors. This isn't for SC, I have another site I contribute to as a draft watcher. But just for the sake of FF here's my take on some of the guys named.

Doedee - 3rd year defender with elite agility, might be tough to break into the Crows side but the time has come for this former first rounder to step up. Playing style very similar to Corey Enright.

Cumming - played NEAFL and averaged 90 in the backened of the season. Hopefully he gets named round 1 because his role is very SC friendly.

Ballenden - probably not quite ready but can switch Keefe in there if need be. I'd be almost tempted to go with these two if only one is named. Definitely want a floating donut if feasible.

Goddard/Murray/Hibberd - you'd hope one gets the call-up. Hibberd probably the best bet and is someone I'd plonk at D6 if need be.

Higgins - Gun and will be pushing hard for a call-up. Never seen him play a bad game to be honest. Tough team to break into but he's ready, finished 3rd in the time trial earlier this year.

Daniels/Ryan/Rioli - we'll get one or two I'm sure. I've picked Daniels because he's exactly the type who fits the Richmond premiership template. Top player who reminds me so much of Ballantyne.

Kelly - Lock.

Fograty - Geelong love him, work ethic is huge and he tackles like a man possessed. Scott will play rookies as we saw with Parfitt.

Crowden - Manchild with the athletic specs to slot in from day one. Can play as a small forward or midfielder and has a devastating left foot in the Daniel Rich mould. Haven't followed the Freo preseason but I have few doubts this kid is AFL ready.

Worpel - Another AFL ready player and bargain of the draft. Hawks don't have masses of mids so there's every chance he plays.

As for Rioli, I think you're taking the sole view that he's a keeper, he may well be, but he's there to make me 150k and to score 85+. Ditto Birch.

Most people are spending their dough on 2-3 600k mids, that for me will be my point of difference this year and it has allowed me to grab an underpriced Coniglio who could easily hit 110. Dusty & TMitch will drop in price, I'll be looking at getting them both when they drop. Boak is another who should improve, he's a 90-100 player in my opinion.
« Last Edit: February 12, 2018, 10:05:36 PM by Bully » Logged
maygs
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« Reply #34 on: February 12, 2018, 11:16:00 PM »

I think that a lot of the 'I'll get him when he drops' comments come down to one argument for me:  How much value do you put on a trade?  If you think that Danger/Martin/etc are going to drop 200-250K then I agree, but if you think they will drop 50-80K then that is the value you put on a trade.

I'm certainly not saying that Cogs is not a good pick - he appears to be great value especially if you're right about him punching out regular 110s.

I'm certainly not saying you are wrong - 'cause I'm not really good with my trades anyway - but I think it is something that might be forgotten occasionally by some.

Thank you for your insight re rookies.  I'm walking in the dark without some of the research done by you guys.
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shaker
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« Reply #35 on: February 13, 2018, 08:32:49 AM »

That's good Bully you obviously know your rookies but you will be lucky if half get a game R1 it's the same every year and as most are 117K you are going to have to spend more to fill spots with more expensive rookies thus your 7 gun midfield will have to go as you can't afford to start with rookies hoping they get a call up sitting there making no cash especially with Hanley and Boak missing the first bye but I am guessing you know that your team will not be as is now the same as I know I won't be starting with the team I have ATM  ;)
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Bully
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« Reply #36 on: February 13, 2018, 12:02:50 PM »

I think that a lot of the 'I'll get him when he drops' comments come down to one argument for me:  How much value do you put on a trade?  If you think that Danger/Martin/etc are going to drop 200-250K then I agree, but if you think they will drop 50-80K then that is the value you put on a trade.

I'm certainly not saying that Cogs is not a good pick - he appears to be great value especially if you're right about him punching out regular 110s.

I'm certainly not saying you are wrong - 'cause I'm not really good with my trades anyway - but I think it is something that might be forgotten occasionally by some.

Thank you for your insight re rookies.  I'm walking in the dark without some of the research done by you guys.

Trades is another question altogether, by my count I have 14 keepers and 3 maybes in Rioli, Christensen & Birch. With most people starting with 6-7 rookies on the field I think the odds are more in my favour with regards to saving trades. Dusty should hit 550k at some point, he's always been a high standard deviation player and sometimes a slow starter.

That's good Bully you obviously know your rookies but you will be lucky if half get a game R1 it's the same every year and as most are 117K you are going to have to spend more to fill spots with more expensive rookies thus your 7 gun midfield will have to go as you can't afford to start with rookies hoping they get a call up sitting there making no cash especially with Hanley and Boak missing the first bye but I am guessing you know that your team will not be as is now the same as I know I won't be starting with the team I have ATM  ;)

The rookie situation is always up in the air, there will be ways to get the personnel without butchering the structure. Hibberd to Simpson/Roberton will get me Higgins to Jaidyn Stephenson or Doedee up to Coffield. This type of trimming of the fat is to be expected. Given that most have LDU at M7, I'm already ahead of the game given I have Coniglio in that position.

The bye is certainly a concern but I gave up planning for byes a long time ago (with starting structure). With potentially 18 trades between now & round 10 any imbalances will be dealt with. 
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shaker
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« Reply #37 on: February 13, 2018, 12:29:32 PM »

Of course Bully I have some of the rookies mentioned but got rid of Higgins he may get a game later but there are many ahead of him so can't see him playing R1 the club has already said as much , I have Doedee but honestly with Ellis-Yomen , Hampton , Seedsman all up and running plus Gibbs it's hard to see him breaking in and really it's the same for most clubs maybe a couple of expensive high draft picks get a look in but unless they have many injuries or players that have retired ( Norf ) there is usually a pecking order.

There will be enough rookies or cheap players to fill teams but probably not at the $$ we want to spend and of course there is some bolters out of the blue that no one saw coming , the only years where it has not a been struggle to fill our rookie spots was GC and GWS entering the Comp.
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Bully
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« Reply #38 on: February 13, 2018, 12:43:27 PM »

Of course Bully I have some of the rookies mentioned but got rid of Higgins he may get a game later but there are many ahead of him so can't see him playing R1 the club has already said as much , I have Doedee but honestly with Ellis-Yomen , Hampton , Seedsman all up and running plus Gibbs it's hard to see him breaking in and really it's the same for most clubs maybe a couple of expensive high draft picks get a look in but unless they have many injuries or players that have retired ( Norf ) there is usually a pecking order.

There will be enough rookies or cheap players to fill teams but probably not at the $$ we want to spend and of course there is some bolters out of the blue that no one saw coming , the only years where it has not a been struggle to fill our rookie spots was GC and GWS entering the Comp.

Daniel Rioli is still recovering from a broken ankle, that spot will be contested by Bolton & Higgins. So far Higgins has done everything right and has pinch hit in the midfield, something Bolton hasn't been able to achieve. Still some practice matches to come but this will be a line ball call.

Have mentioned before that if I don't get a rebounder or playmaker in at D5 & D6 then I will revert back to adding an extra premo in defence. Nick Coffield might be the go here too, he's another who could feasibly step up from day one. I note that many are on the O'Shea bandwagon, he's also a consideration but would have to average 70 in the JLT to get me remotely interested.
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shaker
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« Reply #39 on: February 13, 2018, 01:18:13 PM »

Still think there are many ahead of Higgins we have so many mosquito fleet type players to fill Rioli's spot plus players like Miles , Menadue who can run like the wind Markov Conca and more that deserve a crack before him , a TV report a while back the coaches sung his praises but said he had a lot to do and learn and was not realistically being looked at for R1 but things change  ;)
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ubeaut
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« Reply #40 on: February 13, 2018, 01:28:40 PM »

Just on your 7 deep midfield(something I've played around with) aren't you concerned about good mid  rookies scoring well stuck on the bench? We could have 2 or 3 scoring 80+ and you will only have 1 on field and taking 50-60 rookie scores back and or fwd instead.
Typically the best scoring rookies are midfielders so while I'd love to bat deep in mids this is what sways me back to a 5-6 rather than 7 mid prem set up.
In other words I'd rather field mid rookies than back or fwd rookies to maximize scoring.
I think your previous team with 6 mids and 4 fwds was more balanced and u may have to revert back if enough decent backline rookies don't get named.
« Last Edit: February 13, 2018, 01:31:14 PM by ubeaut » Logged
Bully
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« Reply #41 on: February 13, 2018, 04:27:48 PM »

Still think there are many ahead of Higgins we have so many mosquito fleet type players to fill Rioli's spot plus players like Miles , Menadue who can run like the wind Markov Conca and more that deserve a crack before him , a TV report a while back the coaches sung his praises but said he had a lot to do and learn and was not realistically being looked at for R1 but things change  ;)

The guys you mention aren't really competing for the small forward role, it's really down to Higgins, Bolton & Stengle.

Just on your 7 deep midfield(something I've played around with) aren't you concerned about good mid  rookies scoring well stuck on the bench? We could have 2 or 3 scoring 80+ and you will only have 1 on field and taking 50-60 rookie scores back and or fwd instead.
Typically the best scoring rookies are midfielders so while I'd love to bat deep in mids this is what sways me back to a 5-6 rather than 7 mid prem set up.
In other words I'd rather field mid rookies than back or fwd rookies to maximize scoring.
I think your previous team with 6 mids and 4 fwds was more balanced and u may have to revert back if enough decent backline rookies don't get named.


Fair point although I think 80 is really generous, think we went over this last year when people tried to justify Taranto. I think 70 for guys like LDU, Brayshaw, Cerra & Clark. Brodie is a wildcard being a second year player, I haven't even ruled him out to fill M8 to be honest.

The key to getting away with fielding 2 defensive rookies will be getting the rebounders, on the shortlist are Doedee, Cumming, Coffield & Murray. Happy enough to stuff the bench with Nathan Brown types.
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Bully
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« Reply #42 on: February 14, 2018, 02:53:59 PM »

No Higgins, no 7 deep midfield, have to strengthen the forward line.



Billings with his relative clean bill of health is next in line, only grade 1 hamstring strain so too hard to ignore. His finish to last season was as good as any so I'm jumping on.

Probably have to go with LDU/Brodie now, will make the final call after JLT.
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Money Shot
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The Abusement Park is ready for 2018

« Reply #43 on: February 14, 2018, 02:59:06 PM »

As always, a good team Bully!

A lot of players that should go up in price rather than down. Meaning that you can get the Mitchell/Martins when the inevitably fall in price.
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« Reply #44 on: February 14, 2018, 05:16:59 PM »

You've been pretty adamant that there wouldn't be many def rookies

Looks like you've had a change of heart?
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