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Author Topic: WXV Predictions 2018  (Read 4552 times)
Levi434
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« Reply #15 on: February 02, 2018, 07:41:11 PM »

Premiership Standard

A few months ago I wrote-up an absolutely amazing piece where I broke down the 6 Premiership winning teams and divised the WXV Premiership Standard. Now it's time for us to check which of the 2018 squads match-up to the Premiership Standard. For reference: http://forum.fanfooty.com.au/index.php/topic,110261.msg1897552.html#msg1897552

All of these stats are based of 2017 and a special thanks to Adamant, cause I just copied his stats. Probably cause I am no good at computars and wouldn’t be able to find them myself.

VERY IMPORTANT!!!!:
Assuming all players stay the same OR improve here is what needs to happen for each team in order for them to reach Premiership standard.


Green = The player meets the premiership standrad
Red = The player does not meet the standard
Light Blue = The player reaches the elite premiership standard.


Beijing Thunder:

 - Marcus Adams or Jayden Hunt to push their average above 80. The other to go between 75-79.
 - Josh Caddy to push his average from 76.3 up to 83+.
 - Luke Breust to average 82+.


Berlin Brewers:

 - Fit the Premiership standard!

 
Buenos Aires Armadillos:

 - Shane Biggs averages 88.5+
 - Jamie MacMillan averages above 80, and preferably above 84.
 - David Armitage averages 114+.
 - Ed Curnow averages above 100.
 - Koby Stevens averages above 91.
 - Trent Dumont boost his average to 88.
 - Callum Sinclair averages 86.6.
 - Cale Hooker goes 95.5+.
 - Darcy Parish averages 83+.
 - Shane Edwards averages 83+.
 - Chris Masten returns to 86.7+.
 - Jimmy Webster averages 77+.


Cairo Sands:

 - Sam Kerridge improves his average by 10 points to 88+.
 - Whoever their ruck is averages 86.6+
 - Mitch Robinson averages 95.5+.
 - Ben Brown averages 83+.
 - Rory Lobb averages 83+.
 - Jeff Garlett averages 73.7.
 - Ricky Henderson averages 86.7.
 - Andrew McGrath goes from 70.7 to 77+.

 
Cape Town Cobras:

 - Luke McDonald improves average from 83.9 to 88.5.
 - Aaron Mullett averages 170.2. Or More than 84.
 - Mark Blicavs increases his average from 81.6 to 88+.
 - Tom Papley boosts his average to 95.5+.
 - Lewis Taylor averages 83+.
 - Alex Neal-Bullen averages 83+.
 - Touk Miller averages 86.7+.
 - Darcy Lang averages 77+.


Christchurch Saints:

 - Heath Shaw goes from 83.3 up to 88.5.
 - Jarrad McVeigh goes from 82.7 up to 84.
 - Jarrad Waite averages 83 which is just 0.9 higher than his 2017 of 82.1.
 - Daniel Wells averages 83+.
 - Jake Stringer averages 82+.


Dublin Destroyers:

- Fit the Premiership standard!


London Royals:

 - Adam Saad averages 88.5+.
 - Heath Grundy averages 84+.
 - Neville Jetta averages 75+.
 - Blake Hardwick averages 72+.
 - Luke Shuey averages 114+.
 - Shaun Burgoyne averages 100+.
 - Dom Sheed averages 91+.
 - WHE averages 88+.
 - Callum Sinclair averages 86.6+.
 - Ryan Lester averages 83+.
 - Sam Gray averages 83+.
 - Orazio Fantasia averages 86.7+.
 - Rhys Mathieson averages 77+.


Mexico City Suns:

 - A lot… RIP Mexico. My heart…



Moscow Spetsnaz:

 - Ryan Burton averages 88.5.
 - Jack Crisp goes up a little from 82.2 to 84.
 - Adam Treloar averages 114+.
 - Dyson Heppell improves his average by 0.4.
  - Shaun Grigg averages 91.
 - Jordan De Goey averages 83+.
 - Jack Watts averages 83+.
 - Blake Acres averages 82+.


New Delhi Tigers:

 - NDT actually fit the points allocation but NOT the Premiership standard.
 - Dan Hannerbery to average 114+.
 - Steele Sidebottom to average 100+.
 - Jack Steven to average 91+.
 - Scott Selwood to average 91+.


New York Revolution:

 - Robbie T my boy averages 84+.
 - Shaun Higgins averages 114+.
 - Jack Steele averages 100+.
 - Luke Dunstan averages 91+.
 - Jordan Lewis averages 91+.
 - Hugh Greenwood averages 86.7+.



Pacific Islanders:

 - Liam Duggan averages 68.8+. Ideally 72+.
 - Jarryd Lyons averages 91+.
 - Devon Smith averages 83+.
 - Josh Jenkins averages 83+.
 - Sam Gibson averages 86.7+.
 - Cam Guthrie averages 77+.


PNL Reindeers:

 - Jarrad Harbrow averages 88.5.
 - Paul Seedsman averages 84+.
 - Dylan Shiel averages 100+
 - Ben Keays averages 91+.
 - Matt Kennedy averages 91+.
 - Sam Naismith averages 86.6+.
 - Marley Williams averages 86.7+.
 - Levi Casboult averages 77+.


Rio de Janeiro Jaguars: 

 - Ben Jacobs to play more than 0 games.


Seoul Magpies: 

 - Zac Touhy to average 88.5+.
 - Christian Salem to average 84+.
 - David Swallow to average 88+.
 - Caleb Daniel to average 83+.
 - Isaac Smith to average 86.7+.


Tokyo Samurai:

 - Jason Johannisen to average 88.5+.
 - Lachie Plowman to average 84+.
 - Aidan Corr to average 75+.
 - Jayden Short to average 72+.
 - Sebastian Ross to average 114+.
 - WHE to average 88+.
 - Zac Smith to average above 86.6.
  - Tippa to average 95.5.
 - Charlie Cameron to average 83+.
 -  Jamie Cripps to average 83+.
 - Kayne Turner to average 73.7+.


Toronto Wolves:

 - Ryan Clarke to average 68.8+. Ideally 72+.
 - Connor Blakely to average 91.
 - Dion Prestia to average 88+.
 - Jesse Hogan to average 73.7+.
 - Macrae or Pendles to average 114+.




% chance of reaching Premiership Standard in the 2018 season:

Beijing Thunder:30%
Berlin Brewers:81%
Buenos Aires Armadillos:0%
Cairo Sands:6.875%
Cape Town Cobras:10.625%
Christchurch Saints:45%
Dublin Destroyers:83%
London Royals:0.01%
Mexico City Suns:0%
Moscow Spetsnaz:27.5%
New Delhi Tigers:67.5%
New York Revolution:6.67%
Pacific Islanders:30.83%
PNL Reindeers:1.625%
Rio de Janeiro Jaguars:4%
Seoul Magpies:44%
Tokyo Samurai:0.5%
Toronto Wolves: 70%



Premiership pie:

Here we can see Levi's official likelihood of each team winning the Premiership this year.
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GoLions
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Get around the Kate Upton Cobras!

« Reply #16 on: February 02, 2018, 07:49:38 PM »

% chance of reaching Premiership Standard in the 2018 season:

Beijing Thunder:30%
Berlin Brewers:81%
Buenos Aires Armadillos:0%
Cairo Sands:6.875%
Cape Town Cobras:10.625%
Christchurch Saints:45%
Dublin Destroyers:83%
London Royals:0.01%
Mexico City Suns:0%
Moscow Spetsnaz:27.5%
New Delhi Tigers:67.5%
New York Revolution:6.67%
Pacific Islanders:30.83%
PNL Reindeers:1.625%
Rio de Janeiro Jaguars:4%
Seoul Magpies:44%
Tokyo Samurai:0.5%
Toronto Wolves: 70%



Premiership pie:

Here we can see Levi's official likelihood of each team winning the Premiership this year.
Are these 2 related at all?
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Torpedo10
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« Reply #17 on: February 02, 2018, 08:19:28 PM »

Treloar averages 101.4, and the premiership standard dictates min. 101.2 yet Treloar is supposedly not up to standard?

Geez Levi, if you're gonna do this make sure it's accurate.  ;) In all seriousness, spectacular job!
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Purple 77
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CANNOT MISS!

« Reply #18 on: February 02, 2018, 08:37:44 PM »

That was crazy good, but precedent suggests we shouldn't expect anything less.

I am soooo keen to see how the EoS ladder shapes up so we can compare it to this!

And I will continue to say, Berlin always seems to go well in predictions :P but...
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Purple 77
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CANNOT MISS!

« Reply #19 on: February 02, 2018, 08:41:04 PM »

NDT would be unlucky if they get 2 of those mids to average less than 100, they're the flag favourite IMO.

I predict I will lose a prelim in unluckily close circumstances, and it will later reveal itself that had I won, I would have won the premiership.

*please WXV gods, don't strike me down for typing that*
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Purple 77
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CANNOT MISS!

« Reply #20 on: February 02, 2018, 08:42:59 PM »

Ha, and RIP Mexico City
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Nige
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« Reply #21 on: February 02, 2018, 09:26:39 PM »

Cairo to finish 9th even without a ruck, you heard it here first.
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Adamant
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« Reply #22 on: February 02, 2018, 10:50:18 PM »

Delightful Levi.

Toronto Wolves:

 - Ryan Clarke to average 68.8+. Ideally 72+.
 - Connor Blakely to average 91.
 - Dion Prestia to average 88+.
 - Jesse Hogan to average 73.7+.
 - Macrae or Pendles to average 114+.

The first four should be near formalities. Pendles had gone 114+ the previous six seasons before 2017, I'll back him in to rectify that uncharacteristic DT:SC ratio. He owes me.
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Ricochet
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Dublin are pie

« Reply #23 on: February 02, 2018, 11:07:57 PM »

Dublin to finish outside the top 4
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Ricochet
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Dublin are pie

« Reply #24 on: February 02, 2018, 11:09:21 PM »

And some seriously good work there Levi. Our mids are definitely down a bit so should hopefully get a lift there
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DazBurg
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« Reply #25 on: February 03, 2018, 09:17:27 AM »

great work guys,
one tiny detail
Keays is fwd only

could just swap him round for say wallis etc,

though i imagine Cyril will be in the starting 4 of fwds over keays
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Hellopplz
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#PNL #Iceland

« Reply #26 on: February 03, 2018, 01:31:49 PM »

So what you're saying is we have a chance?
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Ringo
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« Reply #27 on: February 03, 2018, 02:17:37 PM »

Nice work there. Well done even though London has 0%
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Toga
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It's a 'Jing thing

« Reply #28 on: February 03, 2018, 02:26:42 PM »

Love your work Ada and Levi, very interesting lead.

Everyone's forgotten about Sammy Mayes as an 80 avg defender for us though ;)
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meow meow
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« Reply #29 on: February 03, 2018, 02:28:35 PM »

So GAJ reaches the elite premiership standard but we don't have a worthy captain, yet NY does? Interesting.
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