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Author Topic: Dustin Martin or Tom Mitchell?  (Read 1758 times)
quinny88
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« Reply #15 on: February 13, 2018, 06:01:19 PM »

I tried for a while to convince myself that I didn't need to start both and I landed on Mitchell for the seemingly better consistency, but when you look at Martins scores in the back half of the year I just couldn't leave that out. Danger, Martin, Mitchell, Fyfe all locked

Dusty tends to be slow out of the blocks, that's been pretty regular over the years. His record against Carlton isn't jaw dropping either.
Opened with 159 (against Carlton I might add), 118 and 155 last year. Then had some niggles where he played more forward and had the issues with his father.
His game later in the season against Carlton he scored 121.
Ha ha slow out of the blocks and not flash against Carlton hit the delete button Bully  :P

2013 - 85 & 25 & 69
2014 - 108
2015 - 51
2016 - 86
2017 - 159 & 121

Last year the outlier but still slow out of the blocks.

First 6 rounds

2013 - 85, 92, 150, 80, 115, 125
2014 - 102, 108, 84, 94, 80, 61
2015 - 51, 139, 110, 85, 113,124
2016 - 86, 134, 81, 83, 79, 127
2017 - 159, 118, 155, 54, 92, 93

So that's 650k on a guy who has failed to register triple figures in 16/30 games. The first question I asked myself is Dusty going to win the Brownlow this year? Unlikely, so what's his second highest career average? 108 with his third being 105.

Worthy of such an outlay? Not for me but go for it fellas, I'll be getting Dusty when he drops.

You're forgetting that he's just hit his prime though. It's not as if he's 30 years old and had an out of the blue season, he's been projecting this way his whole career and was only a matter of time before he became one of the top handful of players in the comp.

Weather he can pick up where he left off remains to be seen and if I was leaving 1 of the top 3 SC scorers out it would probably be him but starting all 3 is just less of a headache. If he continues on from the back half of last year he will be impossible to get in.

Dusty just won a Brownlow with the highest vote tally in history and still only averaged 119. He's a high standard deviation player who will drop, last year he was a shade over 500k after 7 rounds. Happy to sit on the sidelines with his price being well over the odds.

He had a down patch early on but that was just when the stuff with his dad was hitting the fan and apparently he was carrying a quad injury. Averaged like 130 after that (including through the finals)
The Tigers also play a heap of Friday nights and he will be the perfect VC option.
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Bully
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« Reply #16 on: February 13, 2018, 06:10:08 PM »

I tried for a while to convince myself that I didn't need to start both and I landed on Mitchell for the seemingly better consistency, but when you look at Martins scores in the back half of the year I just couldn't leave that out. Danger, Martin, Mitchell, Fyfe all locked

Dusty tends to be slow out of the blocks, that's been pretty regular over the years. His record against Carlton isn't jaw dropping either.
Opened with 159 (against Carlton I might add), 118 and 155 last year. Then had some niggles where he played more forward and had the issues with his father.
His game later in the season against Carlton he scored 121.
Ha ha slow out of the blocks and not flash against Carlton hit the delete button Bully  :P

2013 - 85 & 25 & 69
2014 - 108
2015 - 51
2016 - 86
2017 - 159 & 121

Last year the outlier but still slow out of the blocks.

First 6 rounds

2013 - 85, 92, 150, 80, 115, 125
2014 - 102, 108, 84, 94, 80, 61
2015 - 51, 139, 110, 85, 113,124
2016 - 86, 134, 81, 83, 79, 127
2017 - 159, 118, 155, 54, 92, 93

So that's 650k on a guy who has failed to register triple figures in 16/30 games. The first question I asked myself is Dusty going to win the Brownlow this year? Unlikely, so what's his second highest career average? 108 with his third being 105.

Worthy of such an outlay? Not for me but go for it fellas, I'll be getting Dusty when he drops.

You're forgetting that he's just hit his prime though. It's not as if he's 30 years old and had an out of the blue season, he's been projecting this way his whole career and was only a matter of time before he became one of the top handful of players in the comp.

Weather he can pick up where he left off remains to be seen and if I was leaving 1 of the top 3 SC scorers out it would probably be him but starting all 3 is just less of a headache. If he continues on from the back half of last year he will be impossible to get in.

Dusty just won a Brownlow with the highest vote tally in history and still only averaged 119. He's a high standard deviation player who will drop, last year he was a shade over 500k after 7 rounds. Happy to sit on the sidelines with his price being well over the odds.

He had a down patch early on but that was just when the stuff with his dad was hitting the fan and apparently he was carrying a quad injury. Averaged like 130 after that (including through the finals)
The Tigers also play a heap of Friday nights and he will be the perfect VC option.

Fair enough, you've got your mind pretty much made up. For my SC team (named after Dusty I might add), I'll be holding off this year, brilliant player but has proven to be a roller coaster ever since his debut.
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shaker
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« Reply #17 on: February 13, 2018, 06:34:06 PM »

Starting Mitchell and if can afford Dusty as well , even if he loses some money like most expensive players do you would want it be when your upgrading and rookies are plump and if he was to drop to 550K you will still need 2 x 350K rookies to get it done , if he is quiet early well it's getting rid of 2 mid pricers or side trading guns which is of little benefit safer to start him if you can afford it .... hope I can  ;)
« Last Edit: February 13, 2018, 06:50:32 PM by shaker » Logged
Ricochet
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« Reply #18 on: February 13, 2018, 06:48:41 PM »

I've gone with TMitch. Agree with Bully in that Dusty had an unbelievable year last year and imo it'll take a fair effort to replicate
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Holz
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« Reply #19 on: February 13, 2018, 06:53:04 PM »

I've gone with TMitch. Agree with Bully in that Dusty had an unbelievable year last year and imo it'll take a fair effort to replicate

Couldnt you say the exact same thing about mitchell?

Except mitchell hasnt got the history of repeteadly putting up big numbers.

Average spiked by more.

Hawks are much more of a change in flux then tigers. What about jom for example or no hodge etc..



I had both but just talked myself into dropping titch
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quinny88
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« Reply #20 on: February 13, 2018, 06:56:40 PM »

Yeah all fair points. For me it wasn't so much Dusty vs Titch as they have a seperate bye. I'm more looking at which 3 out of Danger, Dusty, Fyfe and Crouch. Danger and Fyfe are my 2 biggest mid locks and I have been back and forth on Dusty and Crouch
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Ricochet
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« Reply #21 on: February 13, 2018, 06:58:51 PM »

I've gone with TMitch. Agree with Bully in that Dusty had an unbelievable year last year and imo it'll take a fair effort to replicate

Couldnt you say the exact same thing about mitchell?
Well no because TMtich didn't win a brownlow lol. No doubt he had a very good year, but not to the level Dusty had

TMitch has always been an accumulator. Imo he's more chance of putting up a similar year to 2017 than Dusty is
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RaisyDaisy
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« Reply #22 on: February 13, 2018, 08:27:05 PM »

You can't compare Titch and Dusty - couldn't be further apart in terms of the types of players they are

Titch is an accumulator and spend 100% game time in the guts

Safe as houses to average 110+ and super consistent

Like the others have said I too will be looking to get Dusty later in the year
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quinny88
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« Reply #23 on: February 13, 2018, 09:05:21 PM »

I've gone with TMitch. Agree with Bully in that Dusty had an unbelievable year last year and imo it'll take a fair effort to replicate

Couldnt you say the exact same thing about mitchell?
Well no because TMtich didn't win a brownlow lol. No doubt he had a very good year, but not to the level Dusty had

TMitch has always been an accumulator. Imo he's more chance of putting up a similar year to 2017 than Dusty is

True the argument was made that Dusty had a record voting year and still only averaged 119. Titch broke the record for possessions in a year and only averaged 118. For either of them to do exactly that again is less likely. Still see both atleast averaging 115 at the though so I'll lock them both in round 1
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hawkers65
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« Reply #24 on: February 13, 2018, 10:27:16 PM »

I've gone with TMitch. Agree with Bully in that Dusty had an unbelievable year last year and imo it'll take a fair effort to replicate

Couldnt you say the exact same thing about mitchell?
Well no because TMtich didn't win a brownlow lol. No doubt he had a very good year, but not to the level Dusty had

TMitch has always been an accumulator. Imo he's more chance of putting up a similar year to 2017 than Dusty is

True the argument was made that Dusty had a record voting year and still only averaged 119. Titch broke the record for possessions in a year and only averaged 118. For either of them to do exactly that again is less likely. Still see both atleast averaging 115 at the though so I'll lock them both in round 1

Dusty had a record year and his team won the flag yet he only averaged 119? Is Dusty ever gonna do that year again? Very unlikely.

Titch on the other hand, yeah he had a record year for dispoals but thats the player he is, is it hard to see him doing it again? No, even if he replicates it again Hawthorn arent gonna win that few games for sometime. So often Titch went big but hawks got blown out and it effected his score. He made getting that many touches look easy, nothing he did was insanely special like with Dusty's year

Id be very very surprised if Titch didnt average more than Dusty. Out of the two you just have take Titch
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quinny88
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« Reply #25 on: February 14, 2018, 01:25:36 AM »

I've gone with TMitch. Agree with Bully in that Dusty had an unbelievable year last year and imo it'll take a fair effort to replicate

Couldnt you say the exact same thing about mitchell?
Well no because TMtich didn't win a brownlow lol. No doubt he had a very good year, but not to the level Dusty had

TMitch has always been an accumulator. Imo he's more chance of putting up a similar year to 2017 than Dusty is

True the argument was made that Dusty had a record voting year and still only averaged 119. Titch broke the record for possessions in a year and only averaged 118. For either of them to do exactly that again is less likely. Still see both atleast averaging 115 at the though so I'll lock them both in round 1

Dusty had a record year and his team won the flag yet he only averaged 119? Is Dusty ever gonna do that year again? Very unlikely.

Titch on the other hand, yeah he had a record year for dispoals but thats the player he is, is it hard to see him doing it again? No, even if he replicates it again Hawthorn arent gonna win that few games for sometime. So often Titch went big but hawks got blown out and it effected his score. He made getting that many touches look easy, nothing he did was insanely special like with Dusty's year

Id be very very surprised if Titch didnt average more than Dusty. Out of the two you just have take Titch

Exactly, that's why I'm getting both lol

Dusty was ranted and raved about but when you look at his games statistically it's not like he was doing anything imposssible to replicate. The only glaring difference from the year prior was that he got his possessions in the front half of the ground and was able to hit the scoreboard. They aren't going to change that method
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Southstorm
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« Reply #26 on: February 15, 2018, 07:04:30 PM »

Including finals as well, Martin averaged 122 for the season. That 122 also includes games where he played with a fractured cheekbone and games where he played with a flexor strain. Absolutely has improvement in him, a clean bill of health and he'll back up and go 120+ again.

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Bully
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« Reply #27 on: February 15, 2018, 07:20:22 PM »

Including finals as well, Martin averaged 122 for the season. That 122 also includes games where he played with a fractured cheekbone and games where he played with a flexor strain. Absolutely has improvement in him, a clean bill of health and he'll back up and go 120+ again.

He might but he will also throw in a few stinkers which will force his price down.
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shaker
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« Reply #28 on: February 15, 2018, 07:32:43 PM »

Including finals as well, Martin averaged 122 for the season. That 122 also includes games where he played with a fractured cheekbone and games where he played with a flexor strain. Absolutely has improvement in him, a clean bill of health and he'll back up and go 120+ again.

He might but he will also throw in a few stinkers which will force his price down.
Most players have some stinkers if you are going to start him you don't care about price it's all about having the player that can pump out the big scores and he can do that
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Bully
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« Reply #29 on: February 15, 2018, 07:36:47 PM »

Including finals as well, Martin averaged 122 for the season. That 122 also includes games where he played with a fractured cheekbone and games where he played with a flexor strain. Absolutely has improvement in him, a clean bill of health and he'll back up and go 120+ again.

He might but he will also throw in a few stinkers which will force his price down.
Most players have some stinkers if you are going to start him you don't care about price it's all about having the player that can pump out the big scores and he can do that

It's the same reason I won't start with KP forwards, high standard deviation players are best left for trading when the time is right.
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