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Author Topic: Matt Crouch 2018  (Read 5436 times)
LordSneeze
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« on: February 23, 2018, 10:04:36 AM »

Player – Matt Crouch
Team – Adelaide Crows
Price – 608k
Current Ownership - 9.4%
2016 Games/Average – 92.4
2017 Games/Average – 110.6

Key Game & Scoring Stats
Crouch is clearly an inside midfield player, his game is highly reliant on possessions, clearances and tackles for his points.

Increased possessions by 5.3 per game to 33 (Ranked 1 in the AFL)
Kept the same K/H ratio and DE%
Clearances 4.8 to 5.8, however this was all seen through Stoppage clearances rather than Centre Clearances.
Rebound 50’s increased 1.7 to 2.1
Inside 50’s increased 2.5 to 3.3
Tackles 4.5 to 4.8
Goal Assists 0.2 to 0.6
TOG 71.6% to 77%

It is clear by the above stats why Crouch increased his average. Improved Tank resulted in increased TOG, which built upon natural extrapolation of his possessions, I50, R50, Clearances and Tackles. This is further proved by the increase in clearances coming from stoppages, meaning he was following the ball for longer periods, rather and resting.

Looking into his scoring and much like 2016 he started slowly and came home strong.
95 average from rounds 1- 9
115 average from rounds 10-23

But why the sudden improvement in scoring?
Possessions 32.7 vs 33.3 (Contested 12 to 13)
Marks 3 vs 2.7
Tackles 3.7 vs 5.2
DE 69% to 75%
Clangers 4.2 vs 2.6
DT to SC conversion -6 vs +11

So increased contested possessions at a higher DE rate resulting in less clangers and increase hard ball gets. Increased tackles also provided a small boost but flowing into higher pressure acts.

Scoring Growth Potential
From all of that what is truly the baseline for Crouch. Is it the start of the year or the end of the year numbers and does he have room for improvement?

Crouch scored over 110 points 12 times last year, but in 6 of those he had a DE% higher than 75%, he had 8 over 75% in total. The other matches he scored over 110 was with increased Contested possession numbers.

His Possessions are already at a league high, so expecting further growth there is unlikely, so the question remaining  is do you think he will increase his contested numbers from 13 per game Or his DE% from 72%? Alternatively can he increase TOG from 77% or become a goalkicking midfielder?

It is difficult to realistically see Crouch consistently increasing his DE% or Contested numbers, much like 2017 he will have games at 80% and score 130+, but these will be offset by the 65% games. He isn’t a Goalkicking Midfielder and that is unlikely to change. Then with TOG% even if he can increase this further there is no guarantee that it will equate to increased returns, he doesn’t rest on field, so I would be really surprised if this wasn’t around the same as 2017.

Judgement
While Crouch is a good player and should be a solid SC choice his scoring is highly reliant on several stats. He is priced at a super premium price point which means you are picking him as a full year option, given he has the R14 bye to select him you are likely having to forgo one of the other Super Prem R14 options,
If he can maintain last years end of year form I can see a 110-115 average, but to do this he would need to maintain the higher DE%, Tackles and contested possession numbers, a tough ask. It is more likely that he will drop slightly back on those. My suggestion would be to put him on the watchlist, keep an eye on his DE% and contested numbers over the first 10-12 games and if it appears he is going to maintain or improve those key stats then bring him in after his BYE.
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Money Shot
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« Reply #1 on: February 23, 2018, 02:33:44 PM »

He is locked and loaded in my team and this just reassures me that he is a good selection, he is young and on the up and scored incredibly well in the back half of last season and I can't see him dropping off. 110-115 average is what I expect which is more than enough for me.
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meow meow
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« Reply #2 on: February 25, 2018, 08:58:13 PM »

Hozay? I think you mean José.
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meow meow
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« Reply #3 on: February 25, 2018, 09:17:11 PM »

Increased possessions by 5.3 per game to 33 (Ranked 1 in the AFL)



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SilverLion
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'17 SC Rank - 2827, '18 - 4108

« Reply #4 on: February 27, 2018, 09:06:08 AM »

Increased possessions by 5.3 per game to 33 (Ranked 1 in the AFL)




Thought that when I read it myself hah
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Holz
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« Reply #5 on: February 27, 2018, 09:16:44 AM »

Increased possessions by 5.3 per game to 33 (Ranked 1 in the AFL)




Thought that when I read it myself hah
Crouch was ranked #1 in the comp in possessions, he just was #2 to Mitchell in touches per game.

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LordSneeze
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« Reply #6 on: February 27, 2018, 09:26:25 AM »

Yeah should have prefaced that better. He was Ranked 1 for total possessions.

I wouldn't read much into the JLT game. No Sloane, Crouch, Greenwood meant Crouch player more in the guts than normal wihich allowed for more contested possessions.
 
Gibbs also showed that he is going to get the ball, which means points. There are only so many points to share around and im not sure where the points will come from as the crows already scored highly.
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ben_020285
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« Reply #7 on: February 28, 2018, 04:33:21 PM »

IMO

Worst case scenario he averages 110, best case scenario he averages 125 just as he did over the last 10 rounds of the 2017 season.

Personally I think he will be closer to 125 than 110 so I'm very likely to start with him.
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Money Shot
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« Reply #8 on: February 28, 2018, 04:38:12 PM »

IMO

Worst case scenario he averages 110, best case scenario he averages 125 just as he did over the last 10 rounds of the 2017 season.

Personally I think he will be closer to 125 than 110 so I'm very likely to start with him.
100% agree.
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Gigantor
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« Reply #9 on: February 28, 2018, 04:40:44 PM »

IMO

Worst case scenario he averages 110, best case scenario he averages 125 just as he did over the last 10 rounds of the 2017 season.

Personally I think he will be closer to 125 than 110 so I'm very likely to start with him.

I think you are being way to optimistic
Only one player has averaged 125 in each of the last three years, Danger, Danger, Goldy
GAJ and Rocky both did it in 2014 but missed games

Imo worst case scenario is Gibbs and an improved Brad steal some points and he averages 95-100
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LordSneeze
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« Reply #10 on: February 28, 2018, 05:01:38 PM »

IMO

Worst case scenario he averages 110, best case scenario he averages 125 just as he did over the last 10 rounds of the 2017 season.

Personally I think he will be closer to 125 than 110 so I'm very likely to start with him.

I think you are being way to optimistic
Only one player has averaged 125 in each of the last three years, Danger, Danger, Goldy
GAJ and Rocky both did it in 2014 but missed games

Imo worst case scenario is Gibbs and an improved Brad steal some points and he averages 95-100

I agree here, very few players can average 125.
There is also the chance that his DE% drops back to the nearer to 70% than 75% he averaged in the second half of the year.
Gibbs is a big ?, he is a ball winner. People keep saying he will play across half back, but as a Crows supporter, there is very little chance of this being his main role.

I am still very much on the wagon of wait and see, watch him early and the key stats relating to his point scoring. This will go a long way to telling you if he is realistically going to be able to maintain or improve.

Id say his range is 95-120, most likely fall into the 105-110 range. He is at the high end of this likely range. If he was priced at 102-105 id be on him, but at 110 you are taking on a player where the risk is higher than the gain.

In the end it is all personal opinion, but I am definitely not starting him this year.
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ben_020285
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« Reply #11 on: February 28, 2018, 08:01:50 PM »

IMO

Worst case scenario he averages 110, best case scenario he averages 125 just as he did over the last 10 rounds of the 2017 season.

Personally I think he will be closer to 125 than 110 so I'm very likely to start with him.

I think you are being way to optimistic
Only one player has averaged 125 in each of the last three years, Danger, Danger, Goldy
GAJ and Rocky both did it in 2014 but missed games

Imo worst case scenario is Gibbs and an improved Brad steal some points and he averages 95-100

I agree here, very few players can average 125.
There is also the chance that his DE% drops back to the nearer to 70% than 75% he averaged in the second half of the year.
Gibbs is a big ?, he is a ball winner. People keep saying he will play across half back, but as a Crows supporter, there is very little chance of this being his main role.

I am still very much on the wagon of wait and see, watch him early and the key stats relating to his point scoring. This will go a long way to telling you if he is realistically going to be able to maintain or improve.

Id say his range is 95-120, most likely fall into the 105-110 range. He is at the high end of this likely range. If he was priced at 102-105 id be on him, but at 110 you are taking on a player where the risk is higher than the gain.

In the end it is all personal opinion, but I am definitely not starting him this year.

Didn't say he'll average 125. I said I think he will be closer to 125 than 110.

So 117.51 or more and I'm on the money. Let's revisit at the end of the season.
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Money Shot
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« Reply #12 on: February 28, 2018, 10:23:05 PM »

I think 110-115 range is a win, should be top 5-10 mids come seasons end.
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Miss Pies
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« Reply #13 on: March 22, 2018, 07:53:52 PM »

IMO

Worst case scenario he averages 110, best case scenario he averages 125 just as he did over the last 10 rounds of the 2017 season.

Personally I think he will be closer to 125 than 110 so I'm very likely to start with him.

I think you are being way to optimistic
Only one player has averaged 125 in each of the last three years, Danger, Danger, Goldy
GAJ and Rocky both did it in 2014 but missed games

Imo worst case scenario is Gibbs and an improved Brad steal some points and he averages 95-100

I agree here, very few players can average 125.
There is also the chance that his DE% drops back to the nearer to 70% than 75% he averaged in the second half of the year.
Gibbs is a big ?, he is a ball winner. People keep saying he will play across half back, but as a Crows supporter, there is very little chance of this being his main role.

I am still very much on the wagon of wait and see, watch him early and the key stats relating to his point scoring. This will go a long way to telling you if he is realistically going to be able to maintain or improve.

Id say his range is 95-120, most likely fall into the 105-110 range. He is at the high end of this likely range. If he was priced at 102-105 id be on him, but at 110 you are taking on a player where the risk is higher than the gain.

In the end it is all personal opinion, but I am definitely not starting him this year.

Didn't say he'll average 125. I said I think he will be closer to 125 than 110.

So 117.51 or more and I'm on the money. Let's revisit at the end of the season.

Nice write up Lord

He is locked in my team. I reckon he'll got to around 115 and that's good enough for me :)
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SilverLion
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'17 SC Rank - 2827, '18 - 4108

« Reply #14 on: March 23, 2018, 10:23:28 PM »

41 possessions for 105 is a tad harsh I'd've thought.

Any insight guys?
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