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Author Topic: 2019 Rookies  (Read 144740 times)
RaisyDaisy
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« Reply #30 on: January 26, 2019, 08:49:01 PM »

Speaking of defensive rookies

I reckon we could be left with slim pickings come Rd1. I'm really struggling to see what def rookies are actually a chance of playing

Might be forced to go deep down back, or look at some risky mid pricers  :-\

Rozee looks the goods but is pricey, McLennan is a plug & play & perhaps Collins to replace May. Rookies won't be cheap however so there will need to be some compromises. Birchall a must if he plays round 1.

Agree that Rozee is very likely to start, but his price is the turn off, especially if he puts up sub 70 scores and turns into a very slow burn, but his JS is certainly appealing

Other than him, Collins is the only def rookie I'm convinced on

Williamson, Goddard, Logue, Quaynor, Scrimshaw are the pricier options and I don't think any of them will play Round 1, and even if they do I can't see any of them scoring well

Marty Hore and Wigg seem to be very popular place holders at the moment, but Hore would have to be ZERO chance of playing unless May or Lever go down, and Wigg was out all last year or close to it, so again I'm not holding my breathe that he walks up R1

One of McLennan/Burgess would also be an outside chance for GC, but 50/50 at best

Birchall is essentially a rookie at that price, so just treat him as a rookie. If he gets named we just have to pick him because he'll have the best JS of any rookie, and if he does in fact get injured well then it's an easy correction trade to a cheaper rookie

We'll find out more over the JLT, but as of now I'm thinking we need to go deep down back, and by all reports Roberton is looking good and will be very important to the Saints def setup and with his proven history I'm looking at Roberton at D4, Birchall D5 (Rozee if he's not fit) and Collins at D6, and then I'll just take the 2 best looking cheap rookies to fill the bench
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Bully
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« Reply #31 on: January 26, 2019, 09:32:03 PM »

Speaking of defensive rookies

I reckon we could be left with slim pickings come Rd1. I'm really struggling to see what def rookies are actually a chance of playing

Might be forced to go deep down back, or look at some risky mid pricers  :-\

Rozee looks the goods but is pricey, McLennan is a plug & play & perhaps Collins to replace May. Rookies won't be cheap however so there will need to be some compromises. Birchall a must if he plays round 1.

Agree that Rozee is very likely to start, but his price is the turn off, especially if he puts up sub 70 scores and turns into a very slow burn, but his JS is certainly appealing

Other than him, Collins is the only def rookie I'm convinced on

Williamson, Goddard, Logue, Quaynor, Scrimshaw are the pricier options and I don't think any of them will play Round 1, and even if they do I can't see any of them scoring well

Marty Hore and Wigg seem to be very popular place holders at the moment, but Hore would have to be ZERO chance of playing unless May or Lever go down, and Wigg was out all last year or close to it, so again I'm not holding my breathe that he walks up R1

One of McLennan/Burgess would also be an outside chance for GC, but 50/50 at best

Birchall is essentially a rookie at that price, so just treat him as a rookie. If he gets named we just have to pick him because he'll have the best JS of any rookie, and if he does in fact get injured well then it's an easy correction trade to a cheaper rookie

We'll find out more over the JLT, but as of now I'm thinking we need to go deep down back, and by all reports Roberton is looking good and will be very important to the Saints def setup and with his proven history I'm looking at Roberton at D4, Birchall D5 (Rozee if he's not fit) and Collins at D6, and then I'll just take the 2 best looking cheap rookies to fill the bench

Hadn't considered Roberton but fair shout, could be an excellent option. So possibly Roberton at D3, Z,Williams at D4. Must admit I hate overlooking Simpson but at 570k I just can't do it.

As for McLennan, I'm a bit more confident given GC traded up to get him in the draft. He's the type you build a defense around.
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shaker
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« Reply #32 on: January 27, 2019, 05:40:52 AM »

Rozee is looking the goods at training but he is a very slight build so that could hold him back , Nick Hind for the Saints is impressing with his speed and looks a cheap mid option.
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Peter
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« Reply #33 on: January 27, 2019, 06:12:18 AM »

Ellis for GC must be a chance (ex Richmond)
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RaisyDaisy
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« Reply #34 on: January 27, 2019, 08:07:57 AM »

Rozee is looking the goods at training but he is a very slight build so that could hold him back , Nick Hind for the Saints is impressing with his speed and looks a cheap mid option.

Nick Hind and Brett Bewley are the two cheap matured aged mid locks at this stage. I think they're both going to play Round 1

Ellis for GC must be a chance (ex Richmond)

His SC numbers in the VFL were huge, but each time he stepped up to AFL he couldn't get going. He's an option for sure, but I think he's just a tad too costly considering the other options we have

Hadn't considered Roberton but fair shout, could be an excellent option. So possibly Roberton at D3, Z,Williams at D4. Must admit I hate overlooking Simpson but at 570k I just can't do it.

As for McLennan, I'm a bit more confident given GC traded up to get him in the draft. He's the type you build a defense around.

Williams at D3 and Roberton at D4, with Birch/Collins filling out the line is looking likely for me

There's a lot of value down back this year, but picking the right one is always the hard part. Brodie Smith at 332k is appealing to a lot of people, but he's only really ever had 1 prem season so he's a pass for me, and Robbo being cheaper at 297k and having a more proven prem history makes him the clear choice imo.

I think Hanley is a smokey too, but he's recent history makes it very hard to pick him but I wouldn't be surprised if he turned out to be a good starting pick/stepping stone

Even guys like Connor Blakely at 460k are super tempting to start too. Like you I want to start Simmo because he's just so proven and you know he's set and forget, but 570k is a lot, hence the appeal of something like Blakely + 110k

Back on topic, as for rookies like I've said Collins and one of McLennan/Burgess are the only def rookies I'm liking at this stage

We should be able to comfortably pick 6+ good mid rookies, and I think Corbett, Cavara, Setters and Parker are all good place holders for the forward line. I read yesterday that McAdam needs to work on his tank, so probably not looking like a likely R1 option possibly




« Last Edit: January 27, 2019, 08:14:24 AM by RaisyDaisy » Logged
ubeaut
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« Reply #35 on: January 27, 2019, 09:24:05 AM »

Speaking of defensive rookies

I reckon we could be left with slim pickings come Rd1. I'm really struggling to see what def rookies are actually a chance of playing

Might be forced to go deep down back, or look at some risky mid pricers  :-\

Rozee looks the goods but is pricey, McLennan is a plug & play & perhaps Collins to replace May. Rookies won't be cheap however so there will need to be some compromises. Birchall a must if he plays round 1.

Agree that Rozee is very likely to start, but his price is the turn off, especially if he puts up sub 70 scores and turns into a very slow burn, but his JS is certainly appealing

Other than him, Collins is the only def rookie I'm convinced on

Williamson, Goddard, Logue, Quaynor, Scrimshaw are the pricier options and I don't think any of them will play Round 1, and even if they do I can't see any of them scoring well

Marty Hore and Wigg seem to be very popular place holders at the moment, but Hore would have to be ZERO chance of playing unless May or Lever go down, and Wigg was out all last year or close to it, so again I'm not holding my breathe that he walks up R1

One of McLennan/Burgess would also be an outside chance for GC, but 50/50 at best

Birchall is essentially a rookie at that price, so just treat him as a rookie. If he gets named we just have to pick him because he'll have the best JS of any rookie, and if he does in fact get injured well then it's an easy correction trade to a cheaper rookie

We'll find out more over the JLT, but as of now I'm thinking we need to go deep down back, and by all reports Roberton is looking good and will be very important to the Saints def setup and with his proven history I'm looking at Roberton at D4, Birchall D5 (Rozee if he's not fit) and Collins at D6, and then I'll just take the 2 best looking cheap rookies to fill the bench
Logue is looking likely for round 1.
Lever is injured and is not expected back until mid season so Hore is a fair chance too.
As for Roberton, Carlisle and Austin are battling back and groin issues respectively, so he's far from a sure thing to play a loose rebounding role. Josh Battle is being trialled in defence so that may help him.
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RaisyDaisy
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« Reply #36 on: January 27, 2019, 11:41:47 AM »

Logue is looking likely for round 1.
Lever is injured and is not expected back until mid season so Hore is a fair chance too.
As for Roberton, Carlisle and Austin are battling back and groin issues respectively, so he's far from a sure thing to play a loose rebounding role. Josh Battle is being trialled in defence so that may help him.

My bad re Lever - I guess that makes Hore a chance to take a bench spot. Like I've said, just because a player gets named to play that isn't good enough - I don't want spud rookies who can't score, and last I check Hore's SC numbers in the VFL were not great, so at best he'd be my D7/8

As for Roberton, I'm not worried about a few teammates battling niggles. At 297k he's insanely cheap for what he is capable of scoring. Absolute worst case scenario he needs to be upgraded, which is completely fine and worth the shot at that price

Either way, I'm not expecting much good def rookies at all
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Big Mac
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« Reply #37 on: January 27, 2019, 12:18:08 PM »

Hore no chance imo, will bide his time in the VFL
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RaisyDaisy
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« Reply #38 on: January 27, 2019, 12:56:36 PM »

Hore no chance imo, will bide his time in the VFL

Pretty much what I've been saying/expect to happen too

Dees are pushing for a flag. When one guy goes out (Lever) there's generally a few guys in reserve, before someone who was just drafted gets the nod

Guys like Frost, Joel Smith etc would be ahead of him you'd think

Any Saints fans got an inside scoop on Wilkie? Is he a fair chance to crack into the 22 and play Round 1?
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Mat0369
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« Reply #39 on: January 27, 2019, 01:08:41 PM »

So Wiliamson has been running laps only at the moment. Put a line through him for round 1. No chance he comes in with Newman in the mix. Interestingly enough Marchbank has also been limited to laps and Jones has broken his hand. I'd say Jones will be ready for round 1 but it could open up the door for Goddard.

Oh, and Levi has been training with the defenders. We have a ton of KPD's but they are all injured or returning from long term injuries.
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Mat0369
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#shirleytempledidthis

« Reply #40 on: January 27, 2019, 01:16:59 PM »

Rozee is looking the goods at training but he is a very slight build so that could hold him back , Nick Hind for the Saints is impressing with his speed and looks a cheap mid option.

Nick Hind and Brett Bewley are the two cheap matured aged mid locks at this stage. I think they're both going to play Round 1

Ellis for GC must be a chance (ex Richmond)

His SC numbers in the VFL were huge, but each time he stepped up to AFL he couldn't get going. He's an option for sure, but I think he's just a tad too costly considering the other options we have

Hadn't considered Roberton but fair shout, could be an excellent option. So possibly Roberton at D3, Z,Williams at D4. Must admit I hate overlooking Simpson but at 570k I just can't do it.

As for McLennan, I'm a bit more confident given GC traded up to get him in the draft. He's the type you build a defense around.

There's a lot of value down back this year, but picking the right one is always the hard part. Brodie Smith at 332k is appealing to a lot of people, but he's only really ever had 1 prem season so he's a pass for me, and Robbo being cheaper at 297k and having a more proven prem history makes him the clear choice imo.

Numbers say otherwise. Roberton has had 2 seasons of 90+ but every other season has been sub 76.

Smith has had one season of 90+ (which was better than any Roberton has had) and 2 more above 80 (although one was off 2 games last year). The rest have been sub 76. They're essentially a wash.

The major difference with Roberton is that Jimmy Webster has now taken that rebounding/intercept role while he was injured and did it pretty well. They now have to get both of these guys to play cohesively.

I also want to check out the kickin numbers for 2017. I am curious to see where Smith ranks for the Crows.

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RaisyDaisy
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« Reply #41 on: January 27, 2019, 06:07:16 PM »

Numbers say otherwise. Roberton has had 2 seasons of 90+ but every other season has been sub 76.

Smith has had one season of 90+ (which was better than any Roberton has had) and 2 more above 80 (although one was off 2 games last year). The rest have been sub 76. They're essentially a wash.

The major difference with Roberton is that Jimmy Webster has now taken that rebounding/intercept role while he was injured and did it pretty well. They now have to get both of these guys to play cohesively.

I also want to check out the kickin numbers for 2017. I am curious to see where Smith ranks for the Crows.

Roberton's numbers are much more recent though, so they carry more weight, especially since he's had 2 90+ seasons from 3 (ignore last year)

Brodie went 90+ in 2014 - that's way too far back now to really value

Might not sound like much, but the price difference also makes Roberton more attractive. At 297k even if he goes 75+ he still makes enough cash, and he takes a lot of the Saints kick outs too, which will only help with the new rules and his scoring

All this talk of Webster doing this, Carlisle and Austin being injured etc - none of that matters to me
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ubeaut
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« Reply #42 on: January 27, 2019, 06:30:38 PM »

Numbers say otherwise. Roberton has had 2 seasons of 90+ but every other season has been sub 76.

Smith has had one season of 90+ (which was better than any Roberton has had) and 2 more above 80 (although one was off 2 games last year). The rest have been sub 76. They're essentially a wash.

The major difference with Roberton is that Jimmy Webster has now taken that rebounding/intercept role while he was injured and did it pretty well. They now have to get both of these guys to play cohesively.

I also want to check out the kickin numbers for 2017. I am curious to see where Smith ranks for the Crows.

Roberton's numbers are much more recent though, so they carry more weight, especially since he's had 2 90+ seasons from 3 (ignore last year)

Brodie went 90+ in 2014 - that's way too far back now to really value

Might not sound like much, but the price difference also makes Roberton more attractive. At 297k even if he goes 75+ he still makes enough cash, and he takes a lot of the Saints kick outs too, which will only help with the new rules and his scoring

All this talk of Webster doing this, Carlisle and Austin being injured etc - none of that matters to me
Well it matters to me. These factors could be the difference between a 85 - 90 avg and a 70 - 75 avg. I'd rather get 65 from a rookie at half the price or less.
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RaisyDaisy
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« Reply #43 on: January 27, 2019, 07:59:12 PM »

Numbers say otherwise. Roberton has had 2 seasons of 90+ but every other season has been sub 76.

Smith has had one season of 90+ (which was better than any Roberton has had) and 2 more above 80 (although one was off 2 games last year). The rest have been sub 76. They're essentially a wash.

The major difference with Roberton is that Jimmy Webster has now taken that rebounding/intercept role while he was injured and did it pretty well. They now have to get both of these guys to play cohesively.

I also want to check out the kickin numbers for 2017. I am curious to see where Smith ranks for the Crows.

Roberton's numbers are much more recent though, so they carry more weight, especially since he's had 2 90+ seasons from 3 (ignore last year)

Brodie went 90+ in 2014 - that's way too far back now to really value

Might not sound like much, but the price difference also makes Roberton more attractive. At 297k even if he goes 75+ he still makes enough cash, and he takes a lot of the Saints kick outs too, which will only help with the new rules and his scoring

All this talk of Webster doing this, Carlisle and Austin being injured etc - none of that matters to me
Well it matters to me. These factors could be the difference between a 85 - 90 avg and a 70 - 75 avg. I'd rather get 65 from a rookie at half the price or less.

I think you'll be hard pressed finding many def rookies going 65

Dylan Roberton ranks 4th in the AFL for kick-in to self since 2015, despite missing most of last season

Recent article also mentioned how he did a lot of coaching this year and will be a huge in for them, being a general down back

Lack of rookies, his price and history = extreme value
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« Reply #44 on: January 27, 2019, 08:15:48 PM »

IMO biggest worry about Roberton is who's NOT back yet, Carlisle isn't training properly after an injury sustained before Christmas. Roberton has done jobs in the past and could be doing them again without Carlisle back. For me he's a wait and watch at the time being.
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