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Author Topic: 2019 Defenders  (Read 52196 times)
crowls
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19-814, 18-2150,17-16747,16-1484,15-564

« Reply #495 on: March 20, 2019, 07:55:31 PM »

% ownership is a secondary consideration.     bcrouch is in because he offers value for money for risk involved and allows me to do other things with cash saved.   % ownership for me is used when comparing two at same price and xpected output. 
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walloo44
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« Reply #496 on: March 20, 2019, 09:44:23 PM »

Bit late to be asking, but was Whitfield actually playing as a half forward during the JLT? Obviously with zwilliams back he’s being experimented with up the ground, but did he make that move in JLT?
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_wato
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« Reply #497 on: March 20, 2019, 09:52:15 PM »

Happy for people to jump off guys like Smith and Crouch due to high ownership.

If they crash and burn you’re with the pack. If they jump and go bananas and you’ve got nope I don’t want them you’re in struggle street big time.

Sometimes the best POD is to go with the guys everyone is picking because lots of people will try and move away and that’s when it kills them.
If they crash and burn and you don't have them, you save a trade and gain points on the competition. If they go bananas and you don't have them, you can corrective trade after rd. 2 and get them anyways.

Not a huge deal either way imo, unless they get injured on 2 or go 150+ in the first 2 rounds.

Yes but considering both guys are 41% and nearly 30% owned and taking ito consideration 75% of people who play the game don’t have a genuine clue / don’t care/ ghostships after round 2 or 3 then you’ll be in the small percentile of people winning if it doesn’t work out for the guys who own both. Corrective trading isn’t that easy either, gonna have rookies to deal with and other things. So probably only 1 guy is an option.

Not a huge deal but I’d rather be in the boat of owning. Murphy a few years ago was a prime example, I didn’t jump on until after Rd 3 and fell right behind early, never recovered.

Very comfy moving away from
Brodie Smith at that ownership.

Ridiculously over selected imo

Ridiculously over selected if you're in the boat that defensive premiums are worth their price tag.

I'm in the boat that there is zero chance you'll get me paying 610k for Lloyd when theres a thousand mid premos much cheaper. Laird is gonna battle to even get close to 108 that's a fact, I see him going 98-100. Simmo has age queries (it's gonna catchup one day)
Sicily as a swingman, then you've got Whitfield trialled as a forward and then you're into the next tier of guys like Hurn and Crisp who represent value for money but their value won't change much.

Then you've got a whole lot of plodders who won't finish top 10 so why bother. Blokes like Smith are past premiums who have solid scoring history and look in awesome touch. He's only 330k, not as if you're paying into the 400's for him.

Reason for me picking Smith is that he's relatively safe in that he'll average 75 minimum in a defence that is littered with land mines and guys who are horribly overpriced for their output. Not to mention the queries on EVERY defensive premo option.
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Money Shot
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Titz Out For LeBois! Titz Out for LeBois!

« Reply #498 on: March 20, 2019, 09:59:01 PM »

Wato is on the ball as always. Williams and Smith scream value and are as good a chance as any to become keepers. All premiums have concerns.

I’ve chosen Whitfield as I’m hoping he plays wing more than half forward and think he is the only player who has any sort of chance of increasing his average in the top tier of defenders. In saying that I am not confident.
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quinny88
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« Reply #499 on: March 20, 2019, 10:12:28 PM »

Happy for people to jump off guys like Smith and Crouch due to high ownership.

If they crash and burn you’re with the pack. If they jump and go bananas and you’ve got nope I don’t want them you’re in struggle street big time.

Sometimes the best POD is to go with the guys everyone is picking because lots of people will try and move away and that’s when it kills them.
If they crash and burn and you don't have them, you save a trade and gain points on the competition. If they go bananas and you don't have them, you can corrective trade after rd. 2 and get them anyways.

Not a huge deal either way imo, unless they get injured on 2 or go 150+ in the first 2 rounds.

Yes but considering both guys are 41% and nearly 30% owned and taking ito consideration 75% of people who play the game don’t have a genuine clue / don’t care/ ghostships after round 2 or 3 then you’ll be in the small percentile of people winning if it doesn’t work out for the guys who own both. Corrective trading isn’t that easy either, gonna have rookies to deal with and other things. So probably only 1 guy is an option.

Not a huge deal but I’d rather be in the boat of owning. Murphy a few years ago was a prime example, I didn’t jump on until after Rd 3 and fell right behind early, never recovered.

Very comfy moving away from
Brodie Smith at that ownership.

Ridiculously over selected imo

Ridiculously over selected if you're in the boat that defensive premiums are worth their price tag.

I'm in the boat that there is zero chance you'll get me paying 610k for Lloyd when theres a thousand mid premos much cheaper. Laird is gonna battle to even get close to 108 that's a fact, I see him going 98-100. Simmo has age queries (it's gonna catchup one day)
Sicily as a swingman, then you've got Whitfield trialled as a forward and then you're into the next tier of guys like Hurn and Crisp who represent value for money but their value won't change much.

Then you've got a whole lot of plodders who won't finish top 10 so why bother. Blokes like Smith are past premiums who have solid scoring history and look in awesome touch. He's only 330k, not as if you're paying into the 400's for him.

Reason for me picking Smith is that he's relatively safe in that he'll average 75 minimum in a defence that is littered with land mines and guys who are horribly overpriced for their output. Not to mention the queries on EVERY defensive premo option.

Smith isn't really a past premium though. He had 1 premium year 5 years ago and all others have been mid 70s and a low 80. Ive had him at stages because he's still value and I think he can average 80 but I just know how annoying those guys can be to get rid of during the season so I'm saving myself the headache. I've just got with Laird, Whitfield and Williams. Paying a bit over for Laird but he is the safest lock to be a top 3-4 defender and Whitfield is too classy not to average 90s reguardless of where he plays
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Mat0369
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#shirleytempledidthis

« Reply #500 on: March 20, 2019, 10:14:38 PM »

Simmo and Laird are still safe as houses. I'm almost back to the point I started the pre-season where I go with a Laird/Simmo combo, one guy in the mid 400's range and under, Ridley, Collins and Clark filling the last 3 on field spots. Crisp and for some unknown reason Heath Shaw are the others I'm contemplating.
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_wato
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« Reply #501 on: March 20, 2019, 10:20:07 PM »

Agree and good points for sure.

I just have a good feeling about Smith this year. Guy is a genuine game breaker. Him and Milera move the ball much quicker and are elite kicks. Laird is a gun for sure but Crows will want the ball in their hands just as much.

Simmo is safe for sure but two years at 105 and 106 and then everything is 95. Between the two huge years he went at 94 despite averaging nearly 98DT. Would hate to pay 570k for a guy to go 95.

Laird is the guy who I trust the most to maintain output. But even then watching Laird, he's a great 1v1 defender. Smith and Milera are much better at running and carrying and less at doing the defensive work. Laird will demand his fair share of the pill but I wanna get a grasp of the share of ball down there before I pay 590k for him.
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js19
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« Reply #502 on: March 20, 2019, 10:31:23 PM »

The reality is that most defenders can be picked up somewhere in the 400-500k range at some stage of the season if history is anything to go by, so the Smith value is hard to pass up as a starting point. Time will tell...
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Mat0369
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#shirleytempledidthis

« Reply #503 on: March 20, 2019, 10:32:34 PM »

Simmo played like ass last year at times and he still topped the ton on average. His worst score was a 70 which means he has a good floor. With Doc not playing at HB they had him take the majority of the kickins and he plays on so much that his scoring spiked. Newman may hurt him, but he did average 106 with Doc so I wouldn't be surprised if he backs up again with another 100-105 season.

Also looking at the 3 years under Bolton Simmo has averaged over the ton twice, the other year he was pretty close to the ton in DT but under in SC due to the point share. You had Murphy, Gibbs, Kreuz and Doc take a huge chunk of points that year. If Carlton are a better team this year the point share may spread around but it all depends on how you think they will go. If you're avoiding Simmo you may as well avoid Cripps as well because with an improved midfield he won't be averaging 120 with the points spread around.
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_wato
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« Reply #504 on: March 20, 2019, 10:39:33 PM »

Now now we're splitting a 35 year old Simmo and 25 year old Patty Cripps bahahah
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Mat0369
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#shirleytempledidthis

« Reply #505 on: March 20, 2019, 10:44:11 PM »

Now now we're splitting a 35 year old Simmo and 25 year old Patty Cripps bahahah


The point is that Cripps is likely to regress in points and you're likely overpaying for him at this point as well. Cripps is more likely to be a 110-115 guy at the end of the year compared to the 120 he is basically priced at right now. However I'm assuming most of you are picking him based on the fact you think he will be a top 10 guy at the end of the year which Simmo and Laird will also be in defense.
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_wato
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« Reply #506 on: March 20, 2019, 10:54:17 PM »

Yeah but that's the thing I don't see that. Why would there be any reason Cripps average goes down due to 'point sharing'.

He's the best inside guy in the league. Some extra help around him probably does him wonders. Not as if the extra help Blues brought in are gonna be racking up the possies and averaging good fantasy numbers. They're role players that will do a role and be meaningless fantasy prospects
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Commander
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« Reply #507 on: March 20, 2019, 10:54:26 PM »

Now now we're splitting a 35 year old Simmo and 25 year old Patty Cripps bahahah


The point is that Cripps is likely to regress in points and you're likely overpaying for him at this point as well. Cripps is more likely to be a 110-115 guy at the end of the year compared to the 120 he is basically priced at right now. However I'm assuming most of you are picking him based on the fact you think he will be a top 10 guy at the end of the year which Simmo and Laird will also be in defense.

I can't see Cripps dropping off to 110-115. If anything the kid is going to get better this year with another full pre season. If Carlton can win say 2 more games for the year he will win the Brownlow and go 120+
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Sabretooth Tigers
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« Reply #508 on: March 20, 2019, 10:56:13 PM »

Now now we're splitting a 35 year old Simmo and 25 year old Patty Cripps bahahah


The point is that Cripps is likely to regress in points and you're likely overpaying for him at this point as well. Cripps is more likely to be a 110-115 guy at the end of the year compared to the 120 he is basically priced at right now. However I'm assuming most of you are picking him based on the fact you think he will be a top 10 guy at the end of the year which Simmo and Laird will also be in defense.

Isn't this the first full pre-season Cripps has had for sometime ?? Might help to explain his popularity.
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Pokerface
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« Reply #509 on: March 20, 2019, 11:12:45 PM »

Simmo played like ass last year at times and he still topped the ton on average. His worst score was a 70 which means he has a good floor. With Doc not playing at HB they had him take the majority of the kickins and he plays on so much that his scoring spiked. Newman may hurt him, but he did average 106 with Doc so I wouldn't be surprised if he backs up again with another 100-105 season.

Also looking at the 3 years under Bolton Simmo has averaged over the ton twice, the other year he was pretty close to the ton in DT but under in SC due to the point share. You had Murphy, Gibbs, Kreuz and Doc take a huge chunk of points that year. If Carlton are a better team this year the point share may spread around but it all depends on how you think they will go. If you're avoiding Simmo you may as well avoid Cripps as well because with an improved midfield he won't be averaging 120 with the points spread around.

If Carlton are a worse team this year then there is less point share...
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