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Author Topic: 2019 Defenders  (Read 60989 times)
Mat0369
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#shirleytempledidthis

« Reply #510 on: March 20, 2019, 11:30:23 PM »

Yeah but that's the thing I don't see that. Why would there be any reason Cripps average goes down due to 'point sharing'.

He's the best inside guy in the league. Some extra help around him probably does him wonders. Not as if the extra help Blues brought in are gonna be racking up the possies and averaging good fantasy numbers. They're role players that will do a role and be meaningless fantasy prospects

Blues last year had 3 total players top the ton (that are on the list this season). Cripps, Simmo and Curnow. Next best was Murphy at 92 followed by Daisy at 85. Cripps was literally a one man band last year and reaped the benefits in SC.

While his play is suited to the game over DT (contested possession machine and involved in scoring chains), he would have seen his points inflate with the lack of impact of the players around him. Murphy I would expect alone to be much better than last year. I'd also expect improvement from guys like Samo, Dow, Fisher, Cuningham etc. Add in Walsh, Setters, Newman etc.

They won't be world beating scores, but they may all jump 10-15 ppg in some cases from where they were last year. You also aren't get the rolling pleb scores from Polson, O'Shea etc. in the team each week.

If Carlton are a worse team this year then there is less point share...

Correct, but they aren't. We were as bad as you could get last year. 2 wins (worst in club history) and decimated by injury to add to the pain. While I think we're still bottom 4, I think that the guys they have brought in are upgrades over the guys playing last season. Mullett, Graham, Pickett, O'Shea and Matt Shaw to name a few have been upgraded to Setters, Walsh, Newman, a healthy Murphy, Fas and Gibbons.

I'm not saying Cripps is magically going to drop to a 105 average, but with how much they relied on him last year it reflected in his SC scores. I think with some support those scores might dip to the 110-115 range which will still make him one of the better mids at the end of the year. It is the same argument most are using for not picking Laird. You have Smith/Milera possibly taking some of his SC points due to their impact on the game. It might see him drop those 5-10 points as well. If you're using that as an excuse to not pick Laird than you may as well not pick Cripps either.
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Mat0369
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#shirleytempledidthis

« Reply #511 on: March 20, 2019, 11:44:41 PM »

The last thing with Laird, how often are you going to find a back pocket that can rack up 30-40 touches a week? He is an absolute ball magnet
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Pokerface
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« Reply #512 on: March 21, 2019, 12:12:48 AM »

Yeah but that's the thing I don't see that. Why would there be any reason Cripps average goes down due to 'point sharing'.

He's the best inside guy in the league. Some extra help around him probably does him wonders. Not as if the extra help Blues brought in are gonna be racking up the possies and averaging good fantasy numbers. They're role players that will do a role and be meaningless fantasy prospects

Blues last year had 3 total players top the ton (that are on the list this season). Cripps, Simmo and Curnow. Next best was Murphy at 92 followed by Daisy at 85. Cripps was literally a one man band last year and reaped the benefits in SC.

While his play is suited to the game over DT (contested possession machine and involved in scoring chains), he would have seen his points inflate with the lack of impact of the players around him. Murphy I would expect alone to be much better than last year. I'd also expect improvement from guys like Samo, Dow, Fisher, Cuningham etc. Add in Walsh, Setters, Newman etc.

They won't be world beating scores, but they may all jump 10-15 ppg in some cases from where they were last year. You also aren't get the rolling pleb scores from Polson, O'Shea etc. in the team each week.

If Carlton are a worse team this year then there is less point share...

Correct, but they aren't. We were as bad as you could get last year. 2 wins (worst in club history) and decimated by injury to add to the pain. While I think we're still bottom 4, I think that the guys they have brought in are upgrades over the guys playing last season. Mullett, Graham, Pickett, O'Shea and Matt Shaw to name a few have been upgraded to Setters, Walsh, Newman, a healthy Murphy, Fas and Gibbons.

I'm not saying Cripps is magically going to drop to a 105 average, but with how much they relied on him last year it reflected in his SC scores. I think with some support those scores might dip to the 110-115 range which will still make him one of the better mids at the end of the year. It is the same argument most are using for not picking Laird. You have Smith/Milera possibly taking some of his SC points due to their impact on the game. It might see him drop those 5-10 points as well. If you're using that as an excuse to not pick Laird than you may as well not pick Cripps either.

Don't want to sound disrespectful, but come the end of season I don't think Carlton will be in any better shape than the end of last season.

Smith/Milera impact on Laird is different to the sc point share which is a limited bucket of 3300. They aren't stealing from that bucket to reduce the available points on offer, they are stealing his actual possessions.
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Mat0369
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#shirleytempledidthis

« Reply #513 on: March 21, 2019, 12:52:40 AM »

The guys they will put out on the park should be far better than the guys they had last year. The ins ans outs from R23 last year to R1 this year.

Out: Polson, Lobbe, Byrne, Mullett, Marchbank, Rowe, O'Brien, Kerridge, Lang, Lamb, Silvagni, Wright, De Koning

In: Fas, Walsh, Newman, Phillips, Jones, Plowman, Setterfield, McGovern, Garlett, Gibbons, Fisher, Cuningham, Dow
 
A couple of those outs are guys that are probably best 22. Hence Garlett getting a game. That also doesn't include the spuds like O'Shea we had running around most weeks. I have us winning 4-6 games this year (and possibly going winless in the first 10). It's still poor, but they will be more competitive than last year.

Thing is they aren't stealing his possessions. He will still get his 30 plus a game come the real stuff. Where he will lose points is the impact of Sloane, the Crouch Bros and Milera/Smith's elite ball use out of the backline. I don't know how the CB restrictions hurt him, but Laird is a possession slut and that won't change
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Wanderer
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« Reply #514 on: March 21, 2019, 08:44:47 AM »

Yeah but that's the thing I don't see that. Why would there be any reason Cripps average goes down due to 'point sharing'.

He's the best inside guy in the league. Some extra help around him probably does him wonders. Not as if the extra help Blues brought in are gonna be racking up the possies and averaging good fantasy numbers. They're role players that will do a role and be meaningless fantasy prospects

Blues last year had 3 total players top the ton (that are on the list this season). Cripps, Simmo and Curnow. Next best was Murphy at 92 followed by Daisy at 85. Cripps was literally a one man band last year and reaped the benefits in SC.

While his play is suited to the game over DT (contested possession machine and involved in scoring chains), he would have seen his points inflate with the lack of impact of the players around him. Murphy I would expect alone to be much better than last year. I'd also expect improvement from guys like Samo, Dow, Fisher, Cuningham etc. Add in Walsh, Setters, Newman etc.

They won't be world beating scores, but they may all jump 10-15 ppg in some cases from where they were last year. You also aren't get the rolling pleb scores from Polson, O'Shea etc. in the team each week.

If Carlton are a worse team this year then there is less point share...

Correct, but they aren't. We were as bad as you could get last year. 2 wins (worst in club history) and decimated by injury to add to the pain. While I think we're still bottom 4, I think that the guys they have brought in are upgrades over the guys playing last season. Mullett, Graham, Pickett, O'Shea and Matt Shaw to name a few have been upgraded to Setters, Walsh, Newman, a healthy Murphy, Fas and Gibbons.

I'm not saying Cripps is magically going to drop to a 105 average, but with how much they relied on him last year it reflected in his SC scores. I think with some support those scores might dip to the 110-115 range which will still make him one of the better mids at the end of the year. It is the same argument most are using for not picking Laird. You have Smith/Milera possibly taking some of his SC points due to their impact on the game. It might see him drop those 5-10 points as well. If you're using that as an excuse to not pick Laird than you may as well not pick Cripps either.
What he might lose in terms of usage, he will gain in effectiveness. The 6/6/6 rule will also benefit him. He will also kick more goals this year. Can't see him dropping much if at all.
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Rusty00
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« Reply #515 on: March 21, 2019, 09:02:36 AM »

Happy for people to jump off guys like Smith and Crouch due to high ownership.

If they crash and burn you’re with the pack. If they jump and go bananas and you’ve got nope I don’t want them you’re in struggle street big time.

Sometimes the best POD is to go with the guys everyone is picking because lots of people will try and move away and that’s when it kills them.
If they crash and burn and you don't have them, you save a trade and gain points on the competition. If they go bananas and you don't have them, you can corrective trade after rd. 2 and get them anyways.

Not a huge deal either way imo, unless they get injured on 2 or go 150+ in the first 2 rounds.

Yes but considering both guys are 41% and nearly 30% owned and taking ito consideration 75% of people who play the game don’t have a genuine clue / don’t care/ ghostships after round 2 or 3 then you’ll be in the small percentile of people winning if it doesn’t work out for the guys who own both. Corrective trading isn’t that easy either, gonna have rookies to deal with and other things. So probably only 1 guy is an option.

Not a huge deal but I’d rather be in the boat of owning. Murphy a few years ago was a prime example, I didn’t jump on until after Rd 3 and fell right behind early, never recovered.

Very comfy moving away from
Brodie Smith at that ownership.

Ridiculously over selected imo

Ridiculously over selected if you're in the boat that defensive premiums are worth their price tag.

I'm in the boat that there is zero chance you'll get me paying 610k for Lloyd when theres a thousand mid premos much cheaper. Laird is gonna battle to even get close to 108 that's a fact, I see him going 98-100. Simmo has age queries (it's gonna catchup one day)
Sicily as a swingman, then you've got Whitfield trialled as a forward and then you're into the next tier of guys like Hurn and Crisp who represent value for money but their value won't change much.

Then you've got a whole lot of plodders who won't finish top 10 so why bother. Blokes like Smith are past premiums who have solid scoring history and look in awesome touch. He's only 330k, not as if you're paying into the 400's for him.

Reason for me picking Smith is that he's relatively safe in that he'll average 75 minimum in a defence that is littered with land mines and guys who are horribly overpriced for their output. Not to mention the queries on EVERY defensive premo option.
This is the reason I'm probably sticking with Smith. I thought of dropping Libba to a Rookie and upgrading Smith, but I don't want to spend up on anymore defensive premiums.
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TomK
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« Reply #516 on: March 21, 2019, 10:53:16 AM »

This is the reason I'm probably sticking with Smith. I thought of dropping Libba to a Rookie and upgrading Smith, but I don't want to spend up on anymore defensive premiums.
Exact same situation as me, there's no def premo I'd be comfortable with with the amount of cash I'd have, and while it'll cost more trades down the line, unless I keep Libba as M9, the points gained at the start of the season make up for that imo.
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SilverLion
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'17 SC Rank - 2827, '18 - 4108

« Reply #517 on: March 21, 2019, 08:15:58 PM »

Who is this Nic Newman fello again?
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Rusty00
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« Reply #518 on: March 21, 2019, 08:17:34 PM »

Who is this Nic Newman fello again?
Was just coming in here to ask if anyone picked him in the end?
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kilbluff1985
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« Reply #519 on: March 21, 2019, 08:18:10 PM »

Who is this Nic Newman fello again?
Was just coming in here to ask if anyone picked him in the end?

9% of teams including mine
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jvalles69
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2015 AF Rank - 811 2016 AF Rank - 854

« Reply #520 on: March 21, 2019, 08:40:40 PM »

Lol at all the "experts" opinions on Newman being a burn.
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RaisyDaisy
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« Reply #521 on: March 21, 2019, 08:50:49 PM »

Lol at all the "experts" opinions on Newman being a burn.

Calm down, it's just 1 match :P
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jvalles69
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2015 AF Rank - 811 2016 AF Rank - 854

« Reply #522 on: March 21, 2019, 09:22:39 PM »

Lol at all the "experts" opinions on Newman being a burn.

Calm down, it's just 1 match :P

1 match becomes 2 matches, which becomes 3 matches. Then bam, it's too late! :P
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ubeaut
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Bring on SC 2016

« Reply #523 on: March 21, 2019, 09:28:06 PM »

Wow. Newman and Houli. Wasn't that keen on Newman but Houli was in and out of my team. Decided against him as I wanted 1 premo to go with Williams and Smith.
That 150-200k saved over Whitfield/Lloyd would have boosted my midfield nicely
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ubeaut
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Bring on SC 2016

« Reply #524 on: March 21, 2019, 09:29:54 PM »

Lol at all the "experts" opinions on Newman being a burn.

Calm down, it's just 1 match :P
Only 1 game but I've seen enough to think that Newman will go 90 at least, pretty good for 400k.
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