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Author Topic: 2019 Defenders  (Read 58594 times)
SilverLion
Seasoned Coach
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'17 SC Rank - 2827, '18 - 4108

« Reply #465 on: March 17, 2019, 09:38:24 PM »

Savage anyone?
Had him from the start last year right until he got injured late. Tossed up between him, Witherden and Lloyd who were all the same price heh.

Solid scorer, but almost certainly not a top 6 back.
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quinny88
Veteran Coach
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« Reply #466 on: March 17, 2019, 10:12:03 PM »

Similar logic to you, RD, and I've gone for Hurn D1. Does anyone know where to get the kick in totals from last year and preseason? I can only find articles like this: https://www.afl.com.au/news/2018-08-22/kings-of-the-kickin

Using that article, I can say Hurn averaged 6.2 kick ins per game. He had 12 across the JLT so assume that number stays the same. He played on 61.7% of the time and did so 75% of the time in JLT which, despite a small sample size, seems around the mark for his raking book. That eventually equates to about 3 points per game. It's not much and definitely not enough to say things like he's underpriced, but it gives me confidence that small regression with age can just be replaced with small increase from kick ins. That said, Crisp is a perfectly fine choice.
+1
(for going Hurn at D1)

Hurn had a great year but surely there's concern surrounding him when that was his best season by a fair way and usually averages in the 80s? He's 31 so would be concerned he can only go backwards 
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RaisyDaisy
Master Coach
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« Reply #467 on: March 17, 2019, 10:26:24 PM »

Similar logic to you, RD, and I've gone for Hurn D1. Does anyone know where to get the kick in totals from last year and preseason? I can only find articles like this: https://www.afl.com.au/news/2018-08-22/kings-of-the-kickin

Using that article, I can say Hurn averaged 6.2 kick ins per game. He had 12 across the JLT so assume that number stays the same. He played on 61.7% of the time and did so 75% of the time in JLT which, despite a small sample size, seems around the mark for his raking book. That eventually equates to about 3 points per game. It's not much and definitely not enough to say things like he's underpriced, but it gives me confidence that small regression with age can just be replaced with small increase from kick ins. That said, Crisp is a perfectly fine choice.
+1
(for going Hurn at D1)

Hurn had a great year but surely there's concern surrounding him when that was his best season by a fair way and usually averages in the 80s? He's 31 so would be concerned he can only go backwards

Not all players go backwards as they get older

In fact, some players blossom later in their career

I think Hurn can back up last year. Team structure has changed over the years for us. Hurn had to be more accountable but with our current side and his role as leader it's really put him in a position where we use him a lot more than we probably did earlier in his career, and because he is such a good user of the ball his SC scoring has improved

At a quick glance of his stats, it appears his possession count increased last year, and being such a nice user of the ball I'm sure that's the logical explanation for his increasing in scoring, and I can't see why that will change this year
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RoughRed
Forward Coach
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"Work is the curse of the drinking classes."

« Reply #468 on: March 17, 2019, 10:42:51 PM »

Similar logic to you, RD, and I've gone for Hurn D1. Does anyone know where to get the kick in totals from last year and preseason? I can only find articles like this: https://www.afl.com.au/news/2018-08-22/kings-of-the-kickin

Using that article, I can say Hurn averaged 6.2 kick ins per game. He had 12 across the JLT so assume that number stays the same. He played on 61.7% of the time and did so 75% of the time in JLT which, despite a small sample size, seems around the mark for his raking book. That eventually equates to about 3 points per game. It's not much and definitely not enough to say things like he's underpriced, but it gives me confidence that small regression with age can just be replaced with small increase from kick ins. That said, Crisp is a perfectly fine choice.
+1
(for going Hurn at D1)

Hurn had a great year but surely there's concern surrounding him when that was his best season by a fair way and usually averages in the 80s? He's 31 so would be concerned he can only go backwards

Not all players go backwards as they get older

In fact, some players blossom later in their career

I think Hurn can back up last year. Team structure has changed over the years for us. Hurn had to be more accountable but with our current side and his role as leader it's really put him in a position where we use him a lot more than we probably did earlier in his career, and because he is such a good user of the ball his SC scoring has improved

At a quick glance of his stats, it appears his possession count increased last year, and being such a nice user of the ball I'm sure that's the logical explanation for his increasing in scoring, and I can't see why that will change this year
I like your comments RD. Hurn is such a great user of the ball. He sees short and long long positioning of players and has the skills (and leg) to make things happen. His role has evolved and it seems he has more flexibility. Can not see him slowing down in 2019
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quinny88
Veteran Coach
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« Reply #469 on: March 18, 2019, 12:27:16 AM »

Similar logic to you, RD, and I've gone for Hurn D1. Does anyone know where to get the kick in totals from last year and preseason? I can only find articles like this: https://www.afl.com.au/news/2018-08-22/kings-of-the-kickin

Using that article, I can say Hurn averaged 6.2 kick ins per game. He had 12 across the JLT so assume that number stays the same. He played on 61.7% of the time and did so 75% of the time in JLT which, despite a small sample size, seems around the mark for his raking book. That eventually equates to about 3 points per game. It's not much and definitely not enough to say things like he's underpriced, but it gives me confidence that small regression with age can just be replaced with small increase from kick ins. That said, Crisp is a perfectly fine choice.
+1
(for going Hurn at D1)

Hurn had a great year but surely there's concern surrounding him when that was his best season by a fair way and usually averages in the 80s? He's 31 so would be concerned he can only go backwards

Not all players go backwards as they get older

In fact, some players blossom later in their career

I think Hurn can back up last year. Team structure has changed over the years for us. Hurn had to be more accountable but with our current side and his role as leader it's really put him in a position where we use him a lot more than we probably did earlier in his career, and because he is such a good user of the ball his SC scoring has improved

At a quick glance of his stats, it appears his possession count increased last year, and being such a nice user of the ball I'm sure that's the logical explanation for his increasing in scoring, and I can't see why that will change this year

I'm sure there's been some tweaks but he's always been a beautiful user of the ball and always played the same role in the team. Was it something specific about his role that made him increase his points so much or was it just on the back of West coast having a big year? Just hard for me to back someone that had a random spike in scoring at a late stage of their career
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RaisyDaisy
Master Coach
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« Reply #470 on: March 18, 2019, 08:27:30 AM »

Similar logic to you, RD, and I've gone for Hurn D1. Does anyone know where to get the kick in totals from last year and preseason? I can only find articles like this: https://www.afl.com.au/news/2018-08-22/kings-of-the-kickin

Using that article, I can say Hurn averaged 6.2 kick ins per game. He had 12 across the JLT so assume that number stays the same. He played on 61.7% of the time and did so 75% of the time in JLT which, despite a small sample size, seems around the mark for his raking book. That eventually equates to about 3 points per game. It's not much and definitely not enough to say things like he's underpriced, but it gives me confidence that small regression with age can just be replaced with small increase from kick ins. That said, Crisp is a perfectly fine choice.
+1
(for going Hurn at D1)

Hurn had a great year but surely there's concern surrounding him when that was his best season by a fair way and usually averages in the 80s? He's 31 so would be concerned he can only go backwards

Not all players go backwards as they get older

In fact, some players blossom later in their career

I think Hurn can back up last year. Team structure has changed over the years for us. Hurn had to be more accountable but with our current side and his role as leader it's really put him in a position where we use him a lot more than we probably did earlier in his career, and because he is such a good user of the ball his SC scoring has improved

At a quick glance of his stats, it appears his possession count increased last year, and being such a nice user of the ball I'm sure that's the logical explanation for his increasing in scoring, and I can't see why that will change this year

I'm sure there's been some tweaks but he's always been a beautiful user of the ball and always played the same role in the team. Was it something specific about his role that made him increase his points so much or was it just on the back of West coast having a big year? Just hard for me to back someone that had a random spike in scoring at a late stage of their career

He hasn't always played the same role - yes he's always been a defender but his role has changed - he's now the leader down back for us and that has increased his possession count which in turn increased his scoring
« Last Edit: March 18, 2019, 08:30:54 AM by RaisyDaisy » Logged
quinny88
Veteran Coach
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« Reply #471 on: March 18, 2019, 03:10:22 PM »

Similar logic to you, RD, and I've gone for Hurn D1. Does anyone know where to get the kick in totals from last year and preseason? I can only find articles like this: https://www.afl.com.au/news/2018-08-22/kings-of-the-kickin

Using that article, I can say Hurn averaged 6.2 kick ins per game. He had 12 across the JLT so assume that number stays the same. He played on 61.7% of the time and did so 75% of the time in JLT which, despite a small sample size, seems around the mark for his raking book. That eventually equates to about 3 points per game. It's not much and definitely not enough to say things like he's underpriced, but it gives me confidence that small regression with age can just be replaced with small increase from kick ins. That said, Crisp is a perfectly fine choice.
+1
(for going Hurn at D1)

Hurn had a great year but surely there's concern surrounding him when that was his best season by a fair way and usually averages in the 80s? He's 31 so would be concerned he can only go backwards

Not all players go backwards as they get older

In fact, some players blossom later in their career

I think Hurn can back up last year. Team structure has changed over the years for us. Hurn had to be more accountable but with our current side and his role as leader it's really put him in a position where we use him a lot more than we probably did earlier in his career, and because he is such a good user of the ball his SC scoring has improved

At a quick glance of his stats, it appears his possession count increased last year, and being such a nice user of the ball I'm sure that's the logical explanation for his increasing in scoring, and I can't see why that will change this year

I'm sure there's been some tweaks but he's always been a beautiful user of the ball and always played the same role in the team. Was it something specific about his role that made him increase his points so much or was it just on the back of West coast having a big year? Just hard for me to back someone that had a random spike in scoring at a late stage of their career

He hasn't always played the same role - yes he's always been a defender but his role has changed - he's now the leader down back for us and that has increased his possession count which in turn increased his scoring

What do you mean by a leader down back? Has he not been a leader for a number of years now?
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GoLions
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Get around the Kate Upton Cobras!

« Reply #472 on: March 18, 2019, 03:17:20 PM »

Similar logic to you, RD, and I've gone for Hurn D1. Does anyone know where to get the kick in totals from last year and preseason? I can only find articles like this: https://www.afl.com.au/news/2018-08-22/kings-of-the-kickin

Using that article, I can say Hurn averaged 6.2 kick ins per game. He had 12 across the JLT so assume that number stays the same. He played on 61.7% of the time and did so 75% of the time in JLT which, despite a small sample size, seems around the mark for his raking book. That eventually equates to about 3 points per game. It's not much and definitely not enough to say things like he's underpriced, but it gives me confidence that small regression with age can just be replaced with small increase from kick ins. That said, Crisp is a perfectly fine choice.
+1
(for going Hurn at D1)

Hurn had a great year but surely there's concern surrounding him when that was his best season by a fair way and usually averages in the 80s? He's 31 so would be concerned he can only go backwards

Not all players go backwards as they get older

In fact, some players blossom later in their career

I think Hurn can back up last year. Team structure has changed over the years for us. Hurn had to be more accountable but with our current side and his role as leader it's really put him in a position where we use him a lot more than we probably did earlier in his career, and because he is such a good user of the ball his SC scoring has improved

At a quick glance of his stats, it appears his possession count increased last year, and being such a nice user of the ball I'm sure that's the logical explanation for his increasing in scoring, and I can't see why that will change this year

I'm sure there's been some tweaks but he's always been a beautiful user of the ball and always played the same role in the team. Was it something specific about his role that made him increase his points so much or was it just on the back of West coast having a big year? Just hard for me to back someone that had a random spike in scoring at a late stage of their career

He hasn't always played the same role - yes he's always been a defender but his role has changed - he's now the leader down back for us and that has increased his possession count which in turn increased his scoring

What do you mean by a leader down back? Has he not been a leader for a number of years now?
Personally I feel like he was able to be a bit more free and do his own thing as opposed to previous years when he has had to be a bit more responsible for certain oppo fwds. Think he barely copped a tag as well like he has in the past?
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RaisyDaisy
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« Reply #473 on: March 18, 2019, 03:27:08 PM »

^ What GL said

He's in charge now, and he has Gov and Barrass by his side which certainly makes it easier for him to not be so focused on his opponent per se - he has room to move and we exit the defence via him often

In years prior, he still had great disposal but he wasn't as free as is now - so an increase in touches has increased his scoring, imo
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quinny88
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« Reply #474 on: March 18, 2019, 03:37:34 PM »

Yeah fair enough! Don't think I will start him but if that role and freedom continues and his scoring is solid I'll look to bring him in as an upgrade
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RaisyDaisy
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« Reply #475 on: March 18, 2019, 03:39:04 PM »

Yeah I don't expect his price to rocket up or drop a heap either, so he's not a must start by any means, but a nice unique option



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LordSneeze
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Supercoach Stud on Heat

« Reply #476 on: March 19, 2019, 04:23:17 PM »

Just wondering what structures are people running in Defence

I'm struggling with my defense lineup. Like Laird but not confident on the other options as starting choices. Like Williams, but not sure as a D2 especially if I decide to take on a Francis, Mcgrath, Smith, Newman type too
This means I probably need someone in that 400-500k range as a D2 to push Williams to D3, but I just have no idea where to start

At a prem level here are my takes on the top 4

Jake Lloyd – Went from a career average -5 DT to SC conversion to a +10. Had this stayed similar he would have been an average of approx. 95-100. Went sub 100 only twice after round 8 and has shown the propensity to score really highly. 5x 130+ last year, in comparison Laird a consistent top defender only had 3. Scores are highly reliant on DE% 79.3%, Kicks 18.3 (13.8 effective), Metres Gained 500 per Game and Marks. Personally I believe he will be a top 6 defender, but given his price and the fact he really has only had half a season of Elite numbers, ill be treating him as an upgrade option.

Rory Laird – Even with a career scoring year, the stats show there was some improvement opportunities for Laird with his DE% 4% & 5% down on his previous 2 years. Given his proven nature as a scoring, expected top 8 and in some circles top 4 side, along with a lower variance in scores laird is arguably the safe option of all the premium defenders. Currently he is my D1 and I just cannot currently see how I can pick any of the other defenders over him.

James Sicily – Moving into the Half Back role makes him a difficult prospect to analyse, if he maintains that role there is no doubt that he can score consistently well given his impact is massive. The risk is that he has a history for doing stupid and mostly unwarranted things that cause suspensions and missed games. With other solid choices at a similar or cheaper price personally I don’t believe it worth the risk on this one.

Kade Simpson – Getting on 35 now and while age has not been an issue for him in the past is it going to come and bite this year. With 10 straight years scoring over 90 you can be pretty confident in with what you are paying for. Im expecting a drop off back to the 90-95 mark and would be taking a Laird for 17k more or Whitfield for 28k less over him
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imjusflexin
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joey d baby

« Reply #477 on: March 19, 2019, 04:30:03 PM »

Just wondering what structures are people running in Defence

I'm struggling with my defense lineup. Like Laird but not confident on the other options as starting choices. Like Williams, but not sure as a D2 especially if I decide to take on a Francis, Mcgrath, Smith, Newman type too
This means I probably need someone in that 400-500k range as a D2 to push Williams to D3, but I just have no idea where to start

At a prem level here are my takes on the top 4

Jake Lloyd – Went from a career average -5 DT to SC conversion to a +10. Had this stayed similar he would have been an average of approx. 95-100. Went sub 100 only twice after round 8 and has shown the propensity to score really highly. 5x 130+ last year, in comparison Laird a consistent top defender only had 3. Scores are highly reliant on DE% 79.3%, Kicks 18.3 (13.8 effective), Metres Gained 500 per Game and Marks. Personally I believe he will be a top 6 defender, but given his price and the fact he really has only had half a season of Elite numbers, ill be treating him as an upgrade option.

Rory Laird – Even with a career scoring year, the stats show there was some improvement opportunities for Laird with his DE% 4% & 5% down on his previous 2 years. Given his proven nature as a scoring, expected top 8 and in some circles top 4 side, along with a lower variance in scores laird is arguably the safe option of all the premium defenders. Currently he is my D1 and I just cannot currently see how I can pick any of the other defenders over him.

James Sicily – Moving into the Half Back role makes him a difficult prospect to analyse, if he maintains that role there is no doubt that he can score consistently well given his impact is massive. The risk is that he has a history for doing stupid and mostly unwarranted things that cause suspensions and missed games. With other solid choices at a similar or cheaper price personally I don’t believe it worth the risk on this one.

Kade Simpson – Getting on 35 now and while age has not been an issue for him in the past is it going to come and bite this year. With 10 straight years scoring over 90 you can be pretty confident in with what you are paying for. Im expecting a drop off back to the 90-95 mark and would be taking a Laird for 17k more or Whitfield for 28k less over him
Crispy is your bet if you can make it work.. I'm rocking Harris Andrews at D2 currently. And love the Francis pick! Pretty confident he can average 85 this year..
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jvalles69
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2015 AF Rank - 811 2016 AF Rank - 854

« Reply #478 on: March 20, 2019, 09:39:33 AM »

I'm not messing around too much, Lloyd and Laird are in my team and pretty happy with that.
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kilbluff1985
Master Coach
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coach in WXV, BXV, ADT, ASC

« Reply #479 on: March 20, 2019, 11:18:41 AM »

I'm not messing around too much, Lloyd and Laird are in my team and pretty happy with that.

doesnt it worry u that Lloyd has only had one good half of a season? like not many started him last year thinking he would breakout
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