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Author Topic: Top 5 forwards  (Read 12458 times)
shaker
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« Reply #90 on: February 17, 2020, 04:17:33 PM »

Fwd's prems are a bit light on this year but can't believe some are not getting Whitfield people saying he's to fragile or to expensive he had a thigh or hip early in round 6 for a 45 then he busted his collarbone in round 11 for 65 I would be more concerned getting soft tissue boy Kelly than Whitfield his other scores 105 , 123 , 152 , 137 , 86 , 170 , 115 , 101 , 119 , 90 , 109 , 90 , 114 , 159 take out his 2 injury games that's 11 tons out of 14 matches can't see much wrong there him and Dusty locked.

Hahahah the classic denial post about injury games, ahh just take them out as if they never happened, it won't matter!!

2019 - 16 games (yuck)
2018 - 22 games (tick)
2017 - 15 games (yuck)
2016 - 19 games (ehh 3 rookie scores)
2015 - 21 games (tick)
2014 - 11 games (hahahaah)
2013 - 19 games (once again annoying)

So can't just say they were two innocuous injuries because he's had them his whole career! Also adding to the fact is that Ward played 1 game (hadn't missed a game in 4 years), Cogs missed 7, Jelly missed 8, and he jumped from two years at 97 and 99 to 111.

Natural progression? Yes potentially.
More opportunity? Most definitely.
Coincidence he scored well with a plague of injuries? For sure.
Will he still attract the tag? For sure.
Is his body still made of rubber? Yes.

With all things considered am I going to pay 600k for a full priced guy who has had one year at 110 (never before over 100), has missed 31 games in 7 years and will have points possibly taken away due to a fully fit Giants side being on the park?

HELLLLL NOOOOO I WON'T BE. But you can gladly pick him, I'll wait for the cash drop or injury :)))
If he gets injured simple trade him out but I'll be the one lapping up all those beautiful tons till he does  ;)
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Pokerface
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« Reply #91 on: February 17, 2020, 04:42:21 PM »

Fwd's prems are a bit light on this year but can't believe some are not getting Whitfield people saying he's to fragile or to expensive he had a thigh or hip early in round 6 for a 45 then he busted his collarbone in round 11 for 65 I would be more concerned getting soft tissue boy Kelly than Whitfield his other scores 105 , 123 , 152 , 137 , 86 , 170 , 115 , 101 , 119 , 90 , 109 , 90 , 114 , 159 take out his 2 injury games that's 11 tons out of 14 matches can't see much wrong there him and Dusty locked.

Hahahah the classic denial post about injury games, ahh just take them out as if they never happened, it won't matter!!

2019 - 16 games (yuck)
2018 - 22 games (tick)
2017 - 15 games (yuck)
2016 - 19 games (ehh 3 rookie scores)
2015 - 21 games (tick)
2014 - 11 games (hahahaah)
2013 - 19 games (once again annoying)

So can't just say they were two innocuous injuries because he's had them his whole career! Also adding to the fact is that Ward played 1 game (hadn't missed a game in 4 years), Cogs missed 7, Jelly missed 8, and he jumped from two years at 97 and 99 to 111.

Natural progression? Yes potentially.
More opportunity? Most definitely.
Coincidence he scored well with a plague of injuries? For sure.
Will he still attract the tag? For sure.
Is his body still made of rubber? Yes.

With all things considered am I going to pay 600k for a full priced guy who has had one year at 110 (never before over 100), has missed 31 games in 7 years and will have points possibly taken away due to a fully fit Giants side being on the park?

HELLLLL NOOOOO I WON'T BE. But you can gladly pick him, I'll wait for the cash drop or injury :)))

so who do you pick instead? That's the issue, there isn't anything worthwhile up forward
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erich1036
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« Reply #92 on: February 17, 2020, 04:45:16 PM »

Fwd's prems are a bit light on this year but can't believe some are not getting Whitfield people saying he's to fragile or to expensive he had a thigh or hip early in round 6 for a 45 then he busted his collarbone in round 11 for 65 I would be more concerned getting soft tissue boy Kelly than Whitfield his other scores 105 , 123 , 152 , 137 , 86 , 170 , 115 , 101 , 119 , 90 , 109 , 90 , 114 , 159 take out his 2 injury games that's 11 tons out of 14 matches can't see much wrong there him and Dusty locked.

Hahahah the classic denial post about injury games, ahh just take them out as if they never happened, it won't matter!!

2019 - 16 games (yuck)
2018 - 22 games (tick)
2017 - 15 games (yuck)
2016 - 19 games (ehh 3 rookie scores)
2015 - 21 games (tick)
2014 - 11 games (hahahaah)
2013 - 19 games (once again annoying)

So can't just say they were two innocuous injuries because he's had them his whole career! Also adding to the fact is that Ward played 1 game (hadn't missed a game in 4 years), Cogs missed 7, Jelly missed 8, and he jumped from two years at 97 and 99 to 111.

Natural progression? Yes potentially.
More opportunity? Most definitely.
Coincidence he scored well with a plague of injuries? For sure.
Will he still attract the tag? For sure.
Is his body still made of rubber? Yes.

With all things considered am I going to pay 600k for a full priced guy who has had one year at 110 (never before over 100), has missed 31 games in 7 years and will have points possibly taken away due to a fully fit Giants side being on the park?

HELLLLL NOOOOO I WON'T BE. But you can gladly pick him, I'll wait for the cash drop or injury :)))

In 2017 you say "yuck", but I'm not sure I'd be calling a drug ban an 'injury'. Very unlikely to happen again (you would hope). He was fully healthy for that full season and played every game he could. So basically he only missed 4 games due to injury across 2015-2018. Certainly doesn't change your other points, but I just wanted to note that.
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_wato
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« Reply #93 on: February 17, 2020, 04:46:12 PM »

If he gets injured simple trade him out but I'll be the one lapping up all those beautiful tons till he does  ;)

Hahahah burn those precious trades!!! Don't expect 130+ anymore either, too many hungry ball hogs in that team

so who do you pick instead? That's the issue, there isn't anything worthwhile up forward

It's simple you don't. You pick extra rookies and buy genuine premos on other lines.
At worst you go for guys in the 400k mould (for me it's Wingard/Ceglar) who also have question marks but they're 150-200k cheaper.
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_wato
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« Reply #94 on: February 17, 2020, 04:49:02 PM »

In 2017 you say "yuck", but I'm not sure I'd be calling a drug ban an 'injury'. Very unlikely to happen again (you would hope). He was fully healthy for that full season and played every game he could. So basically he only missed 4 games due to injury across 2015-2018.

Okay that's also a fair comment. I also never saw Whitfield garner the attention across 2015-2018 like he did last season which resulted directly in the collarbone injury where he missed 4 games (5 including the bye) plus the corked thigh.
He's gonna cop it a hell of a lot more and teams will get physical with him. He won't be able to play on the outside and have it all his own way.
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Pokerface
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« Reply #95 on: February 17, 2020, 04:54:49 PM »

If he gets injured simple trade him out but I'll be the one lapping up all those beautiful tons till he does  ;)

Hahahah burn those precious trades!!! Don't expect 130+ anymore either, too many hungry ball hogs in that team

so who do you pick instead? That's the issue, there isn't anything worthwhile up forward

It's simple you don't. You pick extra rookies and buy genuine premos on other lines.
At worst you go for guys in the 400k mould (for me it's Wingard/Ceglar) who also have question marks but they're 150-200k cheaper.

If there are 6 forward rookies available i'd certainly look at the option. But I don't think there will be. I guess where rookies start appearing is the ultimate key to our structure and selections. None of those 400k mould guys do much for me - at the price you really need them to be keepers.
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shaker
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« Reply #96 on: February 17, 2020, 05:17:18 PM »

In 2017 you say "yuck", but I'm not sure I'd be calling a drug ban an 'injury'. Very unlikely to happen again (you would hope). He was fully healthy for that full season and played every game he could. So basically he only missed 4 games due to injury across 2015-2018.

Okay that's also a fair comment. I also never saw Whitfield garner the attention across 2015-2018 like he did last season which resulted directly in the collarbone injury where he missed 4 games (5 including the bye) plus the corked thigh.
He's gonna cop it a hell of a lot more and teams will get physical with him. He won't be able to play on the outside and have it all his own way.
Well it seems he thrives on all that attention he lifted his ppg up by 11.4 or it could be he's just a GUN locked  ;D
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RaisyDaisy
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« Reply #97 on: February 17, 2020, 06:06:49 PM »

I'm not really worried about injuries with Whitfield

Yeah he's had a few, but my major concern with him has always been his scoring when they're full strength

Kelly, Coniglio, Taranto, Hopper, Ward, Zwil, Toby and Whitfield - they aren't all going 100+

Whitfield was huge last year but most of those other blokes weren't playing, or were playing underdone etc

Is he going to come out of the gates banging out 110+ scores from the get go? Because that's the only outcome where it hurts not starting him, and with all their guys back except Ward I'm not sure he does

I can easily see him putting up plenty of 90-110 scores, and at 600k that's not good enough

He's going to be in everyone's team eventually, just not sure he'll be in mine from the beginning
« Last Edit: February 17, 2020, 06:08:56 PM by RaisyDaisy » Logged
duffercoat
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« Reply #98 on: February 17, 2020, 07:11:12 PM »

His scores wont be as good while the entire GWS midfield is fit - theres not enough points to go around.

He's coming off a preseason ankle reconstruction.

So I dont think he's worth his price but he will still score well. Its just a matter of if you're willing to take a loss to ensure you have a top fwd premium from day 1.
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walloo44
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« Reply #99 on: February 18, 2020, 11:02:47 AM »

Was going through Greenwood’s past scores to see how he generates his 90+ type games, and it seems to me his tackling and contested numbers offer him a solid baseline, resulting in games where he gets 20+ disposals being very high scoring.

I’m his career these are his supercoach scores when he gets 20+ disposals

127, 103, 90, 111, 85, 112, 94, 99, 82, 114, 86, 92, 96, 112, 98, 90, 102.

Giving him an average of 99.5 points when he gets 20 disposals or more. A floor of only 82, and a ceiling of 127.

Every year he has had a greater % of games with over 20 disposals.

2017 = 3/12 = 25%
2018 = 8/22 = 36%
2019 = 6/14 = 42%

Now while these percentages seem far from the desired 100%, he did average 17 disposals in these seasons, suggesting his supercoach pts to disposals ratio is very good, likely helped by a majority of these being contested.

This year at Gold Coast he should find himself a greater opportunity to be a key feature of their midfield, ideally boosting his average disposals for 17 for the past 3 years up to this 20 disposals threshold. If he can do this I think a 95 average is very very obtainable, and a 100pt average possible.
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GoLions
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« Reply #100 on: February 18, 2020, 11:23:53 AM »

Was going through Greenwood’s past scores to see how he generates his 90+ type games, and it seems to me his tackling and contested numbers offer him a solid baseline, resulting in games where he gets 20+ disposals being very high scoring.

I’m his career these are his supercoach scores when he gets 20+ disposals

127, 103, 90, 111, 85, 112, 94, 99, 82, 114, 86, 92, 96, 112, 98, 90, 102.

Giving him an average of 99.5 points when he gets 20 disposals or more. A floor of only 82, and a ceiling of 127.

Every year he has had a greater % of games with over 20 disposals.

2017 = 3/12 = 25%
2018 = 8/22 = 36%
2019 = 6/14 = 42%

Now while these percentages seem far from the desired 100%, he did average 17 disposals in these seasons, suggesting his supercoach pts to disposals ratio is very good, likely helped by a majority of these being contested.

This year at Gold Coast he should find himself a greater opportunity to be a key feature of their midfield, ideally boosting his average disposals for 17 for the past 3 years up to this 20 disposals threshold. If he can do this I think a 95 average is very very obtainable, and a 100pt average possible.

Touk, Swallow, Bowes, Rowell, Brodie, Miles, Ellis, Fiorini all going to be playing mostly midfield. Guys like Ainsworth, Powell and Anderson probably do as well. Idk if I've forgotten anyone.

Greenwood may not get as much time in the midfield as some people think.
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jvalles69
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2015 AF Rank - 811 2016 AF Rank - 854

« Reply #101 on: February 18, 2020, 03:39:40 PM »

Having a play removing Whitfield because I do agree he will be cheaper at some stage and I want to try and get Houston in.  Toughest part is who to drop Whitfield to, already got Dusty, will wait on Heeney, currently have Steven again, but the other options I'm considering are Greenwood and possibly Ebert if it looks like he moves back into the mids.
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TomK
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« Reply #102 on: February 18, 2020, 06:28:20 PM »

Greenwood is so overrated. Such an average footballer who can't spread, isn't fast and doesn't know how to play if the game isn't slowed down to his level. Gonna get caught out unless it's the annual monsoonal weather three times a year.

Good in close, great tackler. Can go forward and be a presence. But otherwise ehhhhh
don't make me hit you watson
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justaverage
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« Reply #103 on: February 18, 2020, 06:35:25 PM »

Having a play removing Whitfield because I do agree he will be cheaper at some stage and I want to try and get Houston in.  Toughest part is who to drop Whitfield to, already got Dusty, will wait on Heeney, currently have Steven again, but the other options I'm considering are Greenwood and possibly Ebert if it looks like he moves back into the mids.

I'm tempted by the hype of Houston but not at the expense of a Premium
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jvalles69
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2015 AF Rank - 811 2016 AF Rank - 854

« Reply #104 on: February 19, 2020, 10:49:21 AM »

Having a play removing Whitfield because I do agree he will be cheaper at some stage and I want to try and get Houston in.  Toughest part is who to drop Whitfield to, already got Dusty, will wait on Heeney, currently have Steven again, but the other options I'm considering are Greenwood and possibly Ebert if it looks like he moves back into the mids.

I'm tempted by the hype of Houston but not at the expense of a Premium

If Houston ends up a keeper and I get Whitfield at a discounted price then I think that's a win for me, that extra leftover money I can use to counter any score difference between them, as long as I use the money right is the tough part...
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