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Author Topic: RoughRed's Run at 2020  (Read 965 times)
RoughRed
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"Work is the curse of the drinking classes."

« on: January 02, 2020, 05:32:34 PM »



So the theory was to take all of the stats for all players over the past two season and run a multi-variant analysis in the Phython ecosystem to assist in forecasting optimal player combinations for 16 team positions with balance of team being rookies. The actual execution involved heated discussion with mates over a couple of bottles of Red :) :)

Biggest decision was to go with the GG ruck-line

Backs:
Stewart - 1st in total kicks, high kick to hand ball, 15th in total SC score
Laird - Poor year in 2019 - looking for a rebound
Docherty - hoping to see him round 1 
Watson - looking good on the track - breakout (Subject to getting a game of course  ::) )
Hill - only if fit R1 otherwise a playing rookie

Option 1: use the $ to go Laird to Houli
Option 2: Hill to Doedee
Option 3: Hill to playing Rook

Mids:
Only 1 above $600K but 1st 5 selections can all go big
Taken Zorko over Neale purely on the price
Kelly feeding off NicNat ...  8)
Also in my immediate thinking are: Dangerfield, Oliver, Treloar and Narkle (the new Tim Kelly??)

So many options here and although selecting Walsh was an excellent result in 2019, playing GG rucks takes high priced rookies off the table for me in 2020

Rucks:
Did ok last year with Grundy/Goldy but thinking for 2020 I will pay up at the start for Gawn and Grundy combo
I am hoping Comben will play as well as Bines did last season - would like a link forward

Fwds:
Weakest line IMO but happy with my 1st 3 - Whitfield is a standout, Dusty is well Dusty, and Heeney should be fully fit this season (interestingly he was dropped from the Swans leadership group for 2020)
Hearing good things about Brayshaw at Fremantle => Breakout???
We will see who the playing rookies are!
I would like a Ruck link here too

Option 1: Brayshaw => Greenwood, Heeney => Ryder for R/F link


Overall 13 keepers I think


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Ringo
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« Reply #1 on: January 02, 2020, 06:15:14 PM »

Nice team and structure -Only concern is Worpel with Mitchell returning with the 13 keepers. We wait and see on rookies now.
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dmac07
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« Reply #2 on: January 02, 2020, 07:25:40 PM »

Like most of the side you have made by sacrificing a little in the mids, but feel you might have sacrificed too much. Coniglio I feel can be a top 10 mid, but with Congilio, Kelly, Worpel, Zorko you have room for 3 upgrades. Yet dont have Macrae, Neale, Fyfe, Danger, Bont, Mitchell, Kelly. Id be worried about that mid falling behind even though you'd definately start strong.
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RoughRed
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"Work is the curse of the drinking classes."

« Reply #3 on: March 02, 2020, 04:16:33 PM »



Feeling a little Ruck Love ... probably should put Williams in the Backline too!
Only Mcasey as a high priced Rook ... would like Serong but just short ... Rowell out of reach at this point
Punting Kelly to lift and my backline
Was going to go Starcevich => Bianco and Kelly => Treloar but Treloars hammy "tweak" on the weekend has me re-assessing that given his serious double whammy hammy in 2018
Heeney could be Walters
Potential of 15/16 keepers ... or not depending on Hill and Roberton

$25K in the bank
« Last Edit: March 02, 2020, 04:32:13 PM by RoughRed » Logged
Colley Dogs
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« Reply #4 on: March 02, 2020, 09:20:31 PM »



Feeling a little Ruck Love ... probably should put Williams in the Backline too!
Only Mcasey as a high priced Rook ... would like Serong but just short ... Rowell out of reach at this point
Punting Kelly to lift and my backline
Was going to go Starcevich => Bianco and Kelly => Treloar but Treloars hammy "tweak" on the weekend has me re-assessing that given his serious double whammy hammy in 2018
Heeney could be Walters
Potential of 15/16 keepers ... or not depending on Hill and Roberton

$25K in the bank

Super interesting team!

I like seeing structures that break away from the cookie cutter set-up in a low risk sort of way.

There's no better fun rooting for NicNat when he's in your SC team, and Ceglar gives you the insurance there.

Obviously, the big structural departure is the selection of a premium at M6. For all intents and purposes, you're basically saying:

Kelly's points + 2 trades > Rowell's points + 360K invested elsewhere

I'm fairly conservative (though I do like taking one low-risk gamble every season). For me, both Cameron and Rankine on the field is a risk too far.

If this were my team:

Kelly - Rowell
Cameron / Rankine - Petracca

With the leftover cash:
Robertson - Green


All the best for the season. I like your thinking!
« Last Edit: March 02, 2020, 09:40:44 PM by Colley Dogs » Logged
RoughRed
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"Work is the curse of the drinking classes."

« Reply #5 on: March 02, 2020, 10:07:57 PM »



Feeling a little Ruck Love ... probably should put Williams in the Backline too!
Only Mcasey as a high priced Rook ... would like Serong but just short ... Rowell out of reach at this point
Punting Kelly to lift and my backline
Was going to go Starcevich => Bianco and Kelly => Treloar but Treloars hammy "tweak" on the weekend has me re-assessing that given his serious double whammy hammy in 2018
Heeney could be Walters
Potential of 15/16 keepers ... or not depending on Hill and Roberton

$25K in the bank

Super interesting team!

I like seeing structures that break away from the cookie cutter set-up in a low risk sort of way.

There's no better fun rooting for NicNat when he's in your SC team, and Ceglar gives you the insurance there.

Obviously, the big structural departure is the selection of a premium at M6. For all intents and purposes, you're basically saying:

Kelly's points + 2 trades > Rowell's points + 360K invested elsewhere

I'm fairly conservative (though I do like taking one low-risk gamble every season). For me, both Cameron and Rankine on the field is a risk too far.

If this were my team:

Kelly - Rowell
Cameron / Rankine - Petracca

With the leftover cash:
Robertson - Green


All the best for the season. I like your thinking!
Thanks for feedback
So many permutations  ;D
I assume you mean Tom Green not Toby  ::)
Rooks need to be named R1 however Rowell is outside my selection criteria as a high priced rook
Further revision has Mcasey being replaced by Greaves(Hawthorn)
Lots of fun and not finished yet
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RoughRed
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"Work is the curse of the drinking classes."

« Reply #6 on: June 30, 2020, 09:00:47 PM »

Round 4
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RoughRed
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"Work is the curse of the drinking classes."

« Reply #7 on: July 06, 2020, 10:46:30 PM »



Rowell, donut donut
Could not cover all of Stewart, Howe, Fyfe, Brander plus Noble, Pickett, Robinson and Georgiades
Still 5 out 8 leagues was an amazing result
Grit the teeth and go again!
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RoughRed
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"Work is the curse of the drinking classes."

« Reply #8 on: July 14, 2020, 08:57:49 PM »



OMG ... Reverse
Worse score ever since I was infected with the SC-virus-2015
Severe social distancing may be required
Lockdown with a ballsy Shiraz to reassess
But where to start...
...
...
Mclaren Vale - yep that will do!
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Peter
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« Reply #9 on: July 15, 2020, 07:01:01 PM »

Have the drink and fix the team...
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