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Author Topic: Joel Selwood  (Read 700 times)
RaisyDaisy
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« on: January 26, 2020, 08:14:10 PM »

I just mentioned Jelwood in the Macrae vs Bont vs Dunks thread, but thought it would be worth discussing him more

2019 was a pretty ordinary year for Joel - he was pretty banged up at times and his average was below 100 for the first time in 10 years

2009   22   110.9
2010   21   117.8
2011   17   111.5
2012   20   117.7
2013   22   118.4
2014   22   120.9
2015   20   104.8
2016   22   111.5
2017   18   102.2
2018   22   105.1
2019   20   85.8

He doesn't miss much footy, and those numbers for that length of time are elite

With the departure of TK I'm sure Geelong will give some of their kids more mid time, but Danger is going to need some big bodied support too and I have a feeling Jelwood could spend more time in the mids this year

Starting 5 600k+ mids is appearing to be very difficult - it just makes another line too weak

Enter 465k Jelly

Seems like the perfect M5 as he doesn't compromise other lines, and even if he does turn into a bust it won't be horrible, and he will be easy to upgrade to a true prem. If it pays off, it's a big win

The fact that starting 5 600k guys kills another line, coupled with his insane history and durability and TK leaving - I think the risk/downside is pretty low, but the upside is huge - he's a legit M5 consideration for me

Thoughts?
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TomK
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« Reply #1 on: January 26, 2020, 08:19:38 PM »

Don't mind it except for this https://www.afl.com.au/news/149328/hamstring-surgery-sidelines-cats-captain
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RaisyDaisy
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« Reply #2 on: January 26, 2020, 08:33:47 PM »

Don't mind it except for this https://www.afl.com.au/news/149328/hamstring-surgery-sidelines-cats-captain

Hmmm, a little concerning I guess, but it seems things are on track

Jan 9 2020:

“I think Joel is ahead of where he should be and we know with him he has had lots of pre-seasons under his belt and does everything right so we are pretty confident with him,” Enright said.

“You would be a brave man to say he won’t play in Round 1 so hopefully he continues to build on where he is at and gives himself the best chance.
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Peter
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« Reply #3 on: January 26, 2020, 08:40:30 PM »

RD- going with Hannebery for most of the same reasons, but cheaper still. Your thoughts?
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Mat0369
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#shirleytempledidthis

« Reply #4 on: January 26, 2020, 09:09:12 PM »

He wasn't playing in the middle be design. He spent more time on the wing and will likely continue to do so. If anything the loss of Kelly probably sees an opening for guys like Constable and Parfitt to play more through the guts. They also brought in Jack Steven who at his best is a mid with breakaway pace out of stoppages

Add in the fact he is constantly banged up and had recent surgery it's a hard pass. I'd rather Murphy/Curnow for a similar price of Gibbs at a significant discount.
« Last Edit: January 26, 2020, 09:11:38 PM by Mat0369 » Logged
RaisyDaisy
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« Reply #5 on: January 26, 2020, 09:17:30 PM »

He wasn't playing in the middle be design. He spent more time on the wing and will likely continue to do so. If anything the loss of Kelly probably sees and opening for guys like Constable and Parfitt to play more through the guts. They also brought in Jack Steven who at his best is a mid with breakaway pace out of stoppages

Yeah I know it was by design, but I still think he is worth looking at

He kind of reminds me of Pendles, when the Pies tried running him off HB or playing him in other positions from time to time, but he ended up back in the mids because of how good he is there, and I think that's a possibility with Jelly

The negative is that we probably won't see him in the Marsh series, and if we do I doubt it will be enough to get a good enough sense of where he will be playing, but like I said in the OP, it's really his price and history that makes him attractive because starting 5 full priced prems just cripples another line too much

@Pete, Hanners certainly seems like another option, but he does have a lot more injury risk

Maybe Ed Curnow is a better alternative? Once Teague took over he put him back in the guts where he belongs and he averaged something like 113 from then on

I guess I just want to find a good value pick the sub 500k range because starting 5 600k is a killer, and if it doesn't work out they'll be easy to turn into a legit prem anyway.
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Woppa15
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« Reply #6 on: January 27, 2020, 04:28:58 PM »

Interesting discussion. History suggests he has plenty of upside, especially if he gets back in the mid.
I think his move to the wing is a sacrifice Geelong are willing to make long term. We tried Jelwood and Danger in the mid together for a couple of years and it just didn’t work. It was also starving youngsters of development.

I think they will look to fill Kelly’s spot with Steven, Parfitt and Constable. I personally think they should give the first opportunity to Narkle....
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HappyDEZ
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« Reply #7 on: January 28, 2020, 01:00:41 PM »

He is a warrior of the game & like it or not his mastery of techniques to draw high contact is unparalleled but from an SC 2020 perspective it's a 100% no from me. Too much $ to be a stepping stone & most likely not enough points as a mid to be a keeper.
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RaisyDaisy
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« Reply #8 on: January 28, 2020, 02:11:57 PM »

He is a warrior of the game & like it or not his mastery of techniques to draw high contact is unparalleled but from an SC 2020 perspective it's a 100% no from me. Too much $ to be a stepping stone & most likely not enough points as a mid to be a keeper.

Yeah I tend to agree now

Since starting this thread I've given it more thought, and I guess at the end of the day even if he did come out and go 105ish we've saved less than 100k most likely, so there isn't a huge amount of upside - if he proves to be killing it he can just be an upgrade target

It's proving very hard to start 5 legit prem mids AND make sure all other lines are solid, but I'm starting to think that any mid that isn't going to be picked as a keeper probably isn't worth looking at, which rules this out

Still good to chat it out though, cheers lads :)
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