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Author Topic: Statistical Predictions for 2013  (Read 998 times)
batt
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formerly a Ross Lyon apologist

« on: September 22, 2012, 12:18:43 PM »

Hey guys,

Over the past few days I've been compiling last year's data to generate an overall 'season ranking' for the SuperCoach players averaging over 100 PPG.  I calculated the standard deviation numbers for each player and used their games missed, averages and price according to FanPlanner to create an overall ranking for next year.

Anyway,  I'll do a quick run through of the different ratings.  If you want to see exactly how the results were calculated, the "Stats" page will show you the algorithms used to create the rankings.

"Rating"
This takes into account games missed, standard deviation, season average and FanPlanner starting price for next season.  Boyd and Ebert both appear to be too high up the list, however they both played all 22 games and had exceptionally good standard deviations.

"Rating (no price factor)"
Pretty much anyone who played all 22 games featured higher up here.  The idea is, based on last seasons stats, you get an idea of the 'reliable' premiums who will both a) service you for the whole season and b) not drop in price much at any point in the season

"Rating (no missed games factor)"
Assuming everyone played 22 games for the season, this looks at who presents 'value' at their FanPlanner price.

"Rating (no missed games factor or price factor)"
This is the rating of the absolute premium players you'd want in your finals team in 2012.  These guys were both consistent and high performers.

According to this your star midfield would be: Ablett, Swan, Pendles, Watson, Selwood, Cotchin.  Sounds about right.


Link
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AqOyg6wZLL1pdEZjRjNCMk5WODFTZ3Y1RU85UTJTWUE

Questions/ comments appreciated! :)
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